CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This isn’t as pretty as WB graphics, but still gets the idea across. 00z GEFS LR brings the colder air into a good chunk of the US.
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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This isn’t as pretty as WB graphics, but still gets the idea across. 00z GEFS LR brings the colder air into a good chunk of the US.
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BAM's Christmas gift to weenies everywhere:
NCSNOW
Member
We got a good shot here at Greensboro to finish below normal temp wise December and January , the way things look today. Be something if we can get a good storm 8+ incher and have an AN snow accum season as well. Never know
The GFS ensemble runs look good this morning for the long range:
PNA is a little more positive (by average) with less individual runs negative
NAO is still negative (by average)
AO is dropping off the cliff negative (by average) with only a couple of individual runs near average
PNA is a little more positive (by average) with less individual runs negative
NAO is still negative (by average)
AO is dropping off the cliff negative (by average) with only a couple of individual runs near average
weather bubba
Member
What ever happened to the posts with the PNA, NAO and AO indexes that had the clips from movies and videos that would show if they were favorable or not? I used to enjoy seeing those. Some of you members who have been here a while will probably remember those.
packfan98
Moderator
paging @Rain Cold ... Get out that dumpster fire picture...
tennessee storm
Member
Window is going be shrinking fast. Niña developing later come winter
Twister
Member
Precentage of Nina happening is dropping. Likely gonna stay neutral
weather bubba
Member
This La Nina was forecast to be a weak event to begin with. I think that any long range forecasts based upon the La Nina should be taken iwth a grain of salt. With a netrual event there should be more unpredictability than normal for any forecasts for January and Feburary.
12z Euro is going to have something in that 1/3-1/5 window
It indeed just cooked
Today I’m thankful on behalf of all weenies that the Euro goes to 360 now 
Kind of a no ---- comment here but we need the system on the 2nd to go under the ridge in E Canada for anything to really work after it
While it's not as sexy as a fantasy OP run, the ensembles are locked into a gorgeous pattern flip to start the New Year.
Eps picked up
room to dig and amplify with the modeled pattern
I'm not wild about the lowering of heights down the WC on the eps but the aleutian low deepening may mean a short term loss for a longer term gain mid month
Man. Pretty classic Miller A pattern right there 
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The signal for a southern storm is increasing in the roughly 1/3 - 1/6 period for sure. Track, cold air, qpf, ptype obviously are all large open questions.
NWMSGuy
Member
I’ll take this look for now for the Mid-South.
Noticeable trend to more -NAO/more lower heights in the ATL on the EPS 
packfan98
Moderator
Stong signal for this long lead time. Looks like the Control was a hit too. Is the control different than the op for the Euro?
These ensemble runs wax and wane, but thought this was a good one from the GFS Ens (Days 10-16)
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50% of euro members with at least a trace
Euro Weekly held on longer to the eastern trough look this run. Here it is on Jan 19. Also had some strat weakening mid Jan
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Euro AI now joining the chorus
The AIFS cooked as well 
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This is some pretty wild consistency for the LR. 
iGRXY
Member
On top of that, even if you can get a La Niña to develop it’s going to take some time for the atmosphere to react to it and then there’s still no definitive answer that it will be the leading driver. Right now neutral looks likely
I'm pretty sure the Happy Hour GFS is going to give it a whirl.
Northern wave coming through first to lay down the cold air.
️ Southern wave moving east.
️ 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Unfortunately tries but cuts ultimately. Good for MS west.
Another solution in a pattern that promises multiple opportunities in early January.