Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[Myfrotho704_]

Who told the euro to cook

 

[griteater]

Quick flip from full North America warmth to cold blast on the EPS - Dec 29 to Jan 5

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yup. Watch the TPV go from AK back towards NA towards the end of the run

 

[griteater]

Dec 31 to Jan 5 on EPS

 

[jeremyt]

Not saying the models are wrong and we won't get cold but at the same time these are the same models that everyone is clowning when they show warm or a 10-15 day snow! I hope we see something this winter, its been far too long.

 

[griteater]

Not saying the models are wrong and we won't get cold but at the same time these are the same models that everyone is clowning when they show warm or a 10-15 day snow! I hope we see something this winter, it’s been far too long.

I don’t do that, so it can’t be everyone

 

[jeremyt]

I don’t do that, so it can’t be everyone

Fair enough, not all but most!

 

[griteater]

Bit of snow splashing on the SV snow product in northern areas of the SE - on the GEFS Jan 3-6

 

[Mitch West]

It seems as if we continued to cook overnight

 

[Mitch West]

Goodness…

 

[Webberweather53]

This December has been the coldest one since 2010 in NC imho and it’s not even close.

Easily the most it has felt like Christmas overall in 15 years down here.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is one of those patterns that will feed back on itself in the long run.

If we get some good storms here across the CONUS early to mid month, when things try to warm up again later on as we approach February, we’re much more likely to get additional snow/ice during the transition out of this too.

 

[SD]

If I get to 2/1 with 3-4 inches of snow thanks I'm good

 

[CaryWx]

That looks like serous cold moving in first part of Jan. Real spill

 

[BullCityWx]

we were fixing to have a real big snow followed by some real cold by the end of 6z GFS

 

[SD]

Euro had the 10mb pv moving back into E Canada with 30 and 50mb following. Would love to see that happen and they at least temporarily stack in the Hudson bay region

 

[Mitch West]

If I get to 2/1 with 3-4 inches of snow thanks I'm goodView attachment 156336

That might be the best extended run so far that I’ve seen at least this Winter

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro had the 10mb pv moving back into E Canada with 30 and 50mb following. Would love to see that happen and they at least temporarily stack in the Hudson bay region

That’s probably the one (and only) wild card we can play that would let us avoid or temper a seriously warm pattern in February.

Need to get the Hudson Bay vortex established in the troposphere and let it couple to the stratosphere & keep the pacific jet extended just enough, although it will retract quite a bit as the mjo orbits back into the eastern hemisphere. This is generally what happened in 2013-14.

All things considered, this is a lot to ask for & why I think that February is probably milder but it’s not quite a guarantee yet.

 

[Webberweather53]

I found it very interesting that these same 2 subsets of years, with the complete opposite mid-late winter temperature patterns over the CONUS, were all viable analogs for this upcoming winter!

View attachment 155128



View attachment 155129




When I took a closer look at the difference between these 2 subsets of years, I didn't notice anything out of the ordinary until I looked into the stratosphere.

The group w/ a colder Jan-Feb had a much cooler/stronger stratospheric polar vortex all the way up to 10mb. This allows the troposphere Hudson Bay Vortex to couple w/ and become "rooted" into the stratosphere, making it stronger/more persistent.

This seems to be one of the keys to getting this -EPO/+TNH pattern to "stick" into mid-late winter.

View attachment 155130

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

If I get to 2/1 with 3-4 inches of snow thanks I'm goodView attachment 156336

Even that's below seasonal averages for many; after the past couple of years I think most would take this and be really excited about it.