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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

I am concerned about the high feeding the cold air from Ontario, it would make me much more comfortable to be 1036-1038 instead of 1032. Not saying it can not work but we have seen so many highs progged to be 1040 and ends up being 1028-30 at go time. Still, good to see a chance and something to follow at least
 
MichaelJ said:
I am concerned about the high feeding the cold air from Ontario, it would make me much more comfortable to be 1036-1038 instead of 1032. Not saying it can not work but we have seen so many highs progged to be 1040 and ends up being 1028-30 at go time. Still, good to see a chance and something to follow at least
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We just had a 1050 HP in the NE with 41/39 and rain a week or so ago lol. What really matters is the amount of cold air that comes with the high, not necessarily the high strength
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We just had a 1050 HP in the NE with 41/39 and rain a week or so ago lol. What really matters is the amount of cold air that comes with the high, not necessarily the high strength
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Exactly. Especially if there’s a strong snowpack in place across southeast Canada and the northeast. For example, the 2004 storm only had a 1030mb high
 
Arcc said:
Dangerous words, FWIW.

That mean and OP isn’t far apart.
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The +PNA is vastly different on all of the ensembles relative to the 18Z GFS operational run. The 18Z run introduced an SW into the PAC NW muting heights there. No doubt there are similar members but the mean disagrees. IMHO.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
AI dropping out west at 18z. Maybe some of these runs with the NPJ retracting to much should be considered a possibility
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Difficult to say for sure, but given the propensity for west cold dumps the past several winters, I wouldn't discount the possibility.
 
Improvement on the GEFS in trend loops for Jan 3. Also, notice how the center of attention weather wise across the world (in NHemi) is over North America

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Rain Cold said:
Difficult to say for sure, but given the propensity for west cold dumps the past several winters, I wouldn't discount the possibility.
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The Pac Jet is so fickle. It lives rent free in our heads unfortunately (me included). But this kind of reminds me of jumping in and out of the market. The day you jump in, you start worrying if the market is going to crash. The day you get out, you start worrying about getting back in before the next climb.

The going tendency so far this winter is for the Pac Jet to be a little stronger than expected. Here in late December, we are going thru a period in which the Pac Jet is going to be at its farthest east (1st image), and it results in this nasty, Gulf of AK Low / SE Canadian ridge / Super El Nino look. From there, it begins to retract. The things that would encourage the Pac Jet to retract strongly back to the west would be: 1) the MJO moving boldly into the E Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent (Phase 3-4-5) - we shouldn't be seeing that until maybe mid-Jan, and / or 2) A strong -EAsiaMtn Torque event - things look mixed to me over Asia over the next 15 days - I don't see a strong signal for a big plus or neg torque event. But I used the word encourage because while we try to attribute the movement of the Pac Jet to certain things, it can be very difficult to predict with the natural variability of the atmosphere having its way as well.

Dec 22 Pac Jet Ext.png

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SD said:
I'm skeptical about this being a long duration thing if it happens.
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I kind of am too. But I probably have too much PTSD about us getting like 5 days of cold and then flip to warm. But Grit made a good post about it yesterday, so there's hope.
 
Three GFS runs in a row with a western dump. The GEFS has responded and is sending more of a mixed signal for SE cold.

Euro and the Canadian strongly disagree and are all on board for western ridging and a central and eastern US arctic outbreak to ring in the New Year, supported by their ensembles.

Hopefully, the GEFS will come fully back in line over the next day or two.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Three GFS runs in a row with a western dump. The GEFS has responded and is sending more of a mixed signal for SE cold.

Euro and the Canadian strongly disagree and are all on board for western ridging and a central and eastern US arctic outbreak to ring in the New Year, supported by their ensembles.

Hopefully, the GEFS will come fully back in line over the next day or two.
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Yeah WWM (new wresting league?), it’s the nature of watching these patterns unfold. Some ensemble runs are going to hit nicely, some are going to be disappointing. Seemingly small differences resulting in the varied solutions. Good potential going forward, but we all know of the pitfalls lurking to spoil things
 
griteater said:
Yeah WWM (new wresting league?), it’s the nature of watching these patterns unfold. Some ensemble runs are going to hit nicely, some are going to be disappointing. Seemingly small differences resulting in the varied solutions. Good potential going forward, but we all know of the pitfalls lurking to spoil things
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Yeah looking at the 3 ensembles this morning, big picture wise I don't see much difference in any of them. . I'm sure there are small meteorological differences beyond my amateur eye that make the GEFS kick the can a bit, but overall they still look pretty good to me at H5.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah looking at the 3 ensembles this morning, big picture wise I don't see much difference in any of them. . I'm sure there are small meteorological differences beyond my amateur eye that make the GEFS kick the can a bit, but overall they still look pretty good to me at H5.
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To clarify, the differences in the ensembles I mentioned are centered on our first window of opportunity in the first week of January. All ensembles, thankfully continue to look quite good at the longer ranges and are in close agreement.
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