• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

I'm all for looking at long range, but I don't understand the constant overreaction to anything at D10 and beyond. Somehow the GEFS has cancelled winter yet looks like this. This literally means nothing to me, but it seems to for others so I show it. Just proves the point it can and will oscillate with basically every run for many more days.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-total_snow_10to1-1734976800-1736100000-1736100000-40.gif
As I said yesterday, there continues to be a signal for a southern storm/precipitation event in the 1/3 - 1/6 range. Nobody is figuring out the details for a while, but cold air will possibly be nearby so we watch.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z200_speed-1734976800-1735992000-1735992000-40.gif
 
1300m said:
I'm all for looking at long range, but I don't understand the constant overreaction to anything at D10 and beyond. Somehow the GEFS has cancelled winter yet looks like this. This literally means nothing to me, but it seems to for others so I show it. Just proves the point it can and will oscillate with basically every run for many more days.
View attachment 156552
As I said yesterday, there continues to be a signal for a southern storm/precipitation event in the 1/3 - 1/6 range. Nobody is figuring out the details for a while, but cold air will possibly be nearby so we watch.
View attachment 156553
Click to expand...

Just to bounce off that but I think this is the best signal we've had all season so far for some snow around the 2nd-4th here

I'm not even looking seriously at anything beyond that yet it's too far out

I remember when Christmas was gonna be 70 degrees 2 weeks ago... It's mid 50s and rainy now
 
Euro Ens Mean. We'd have to time things up as always, but lots to like here with the trough ridge complex working east in the N Pac and low in NW Atlantic. Let's see if we can get better model agreement going forward

Dec 24 EPS.gif
 
Last edited:
KyloG said:
Will be interesting to see who wins...I think we all know how this ends though.

View attachment 156566
Click to expand...

Meh the GEFS has tried to drop upper troughs down here in the sw us in the long range to no avail. It was all over some sort of cut off in the long range at the beginning of January then caved to other guidance

The GEFS is already caving in the pacific jet retraction earlier in the run & I doubt that pattern lasts long at all even if it shows up. It’s not really supported by the background state or the teleconnection pattern
 
Webberweather53 said:
Meh the GEFS has tried to drop upper troughs down here in the sw us in the long range to no avail. It was all over some sort of cut off in the long range at the beginning of January then caved to other guidance

The GEFS is already caving in the pacific jet retraction earlier in the run & I doubt that pattern lasts long at all even if it shows up. It’s not really supported by the background state or the teleconnection pattern
Click to expand...

The wavelengths collapse on the GEFS and GEPS, allowing a cut off to sneak into the SW US. Could happen but it won’t stay that way for very long here regardless. Maybe it warms up briefly for a few days but there’s a risk of CAD/ice in that pattern. It would be one thing if it was March or if we had a retracted pacific jet, but with an Aleutian low, -EPO, +TNH, -NAO, and it being January, we’re likely to return back to the -EPO/+TNH look pretty quickly and stay there til probably late January
 
Webberweather53 said:
The wavelengths collapse on the GEFS and GEPS, allowing a cut off to sneak into the SW US. Could happen but it won’t stay that way for very long here regardless. Maybe it warms up briefly for a few days but there’s a risk of CAD/ice in that pattern. It would be one thing if it was March or if we had a retracted pacific jet, but with an Aleutian low, -EPO, +TNH, -NAO, and it being January, we’re likely to return back to the -EPO/+TNH look pretty quickly and stay there til probably late January
Click to expand...
Let’s hope it’s wrong as we know Feb comes fast and we know how Feb’s work around here. Tick tock
 
Webberweather53 said:
It wouldn’t surprise me if it was right here but my other point is it doesn’t matter that much. We will return back to the -EPO/+TNH pattern pretty quickly
Click to expand...
Eric - are you going with your ideas expressed previously about this winter that once the MJO makes it back to the Indian Ocean, we won’t have too much Pac Jet momentum loss because of this year’s SST pattern, with convection there helping to support the -EPO/+TNH pattern?

I like a blend of the Euro and CFS for the MJO going into early / mid Jan

B5B1C617-4A2A-4A18-B255-8653A154735F.png

40E3F995-2F56-43C3-A52B-86E340774E88.png
 
griteater said:
Eric - are you going with your ideas expressed previously about this winter that once the MJO makes it back to the Indian Ocean, we won’t have too much Pac Jet momentum loss because of this year’s SST pattern, with convection there helping to support the -EPO/+TNH pattern?

I like a blend of the Euro and CFS for the MJO going into early / mid Jan

View attachment 156568

View attachment 156569
Click to expand...

Yep that’s likely what’s going to happen and it’s in line with Nina climatology. I think we transition back to a -PNA pattern as we get past MLK Day. There’s usually a lagged response between the jet retraction and an Indian Ocean mjo orbit
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top