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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

BullCityWx said:
EPS has some members that absolutely send the EPO through the floor. As it stands now, the mean is at -3.
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From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
 
FallsLake said:
From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
Click to expand...
When are we losing the pna?
 
FallsLake said:
From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
Click to expand...
We are probably never going to get them all to line up perfectly for us. We just deal with what we get I guess.
 
Looks like this has already been discussed. I don’t like the look of burying in the null phase in early January

Thoughts?
 

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SD said:
I wouldn't be that mad to get a 96 or 00View attachment 156240View attachment 156241
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We were just outside for the best of1996, but 2000 would be very nice especially if the Jan 24-25 system could have been a touch colder and about 50-75 miles northwest to get more of the I-85 corridor in it, along with the HKY area. Also to have it form 12 hours earlier to get more of GA into it.
 
SD said:
Go with the euro evolution that omega from the east coast into the north Atlantic puts us in the game right away. Rarely do we hit on the front edge of a colder transition but that would be a way to do it with the temporary 50/50 -nao construct
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I'd much rather hit on the front end...maybe sticks around for more than an afternoon.
 
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