ghost1
Member
A 1028 HP bringing the goods?
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
If you’re analyzing the pressures on the CFS you’re doing it wrong lol
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I get the feeling our January pattern we are hoping for is going to sneak up on us pretty quick. Doesn't seem like the background right now favors long periods of ridging.
lexxnchloe
Member
Better than the bads we have had for so many years now, lol
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I'm worried about the trough axis location. It would be better pointed at Mobile and not 500 miles east of FL.
rburrel2
Member
12z GEPS and GEFS look great at around 300hrs and are only getting better towards the end of their runs. They now line up nicely with what the Euro/EPS have been showing. Early/mid January looks amazing, plus it is peak climo. Let's go!
I have no idea why people are feeling bad about winter right now.
I have no idea why people are feeling bad about winter right now.
The 12 EPS is the best run yet with our pattern we are hoping for in January.. Big time run. 
At the end of the EPS, we have an Aleutian Low and a 50/50 Low
Avalanche
Member
I think it’s just the fact that this tune has been sung before and old man winter said “I don’t think so” and it failed. Of course, this is weather one can only find trends and the upcoming one looks decent!
500Ht and 850T at end of EPS run (where I like to live lol)....broad bowl trough beneath the 2 ridge centers
Run to Run Change maps here on the EPS. Every chart from days 9-14 was colder this run east of the Rockies
The low heights crashing through Maine under the tongue of higher heights. Delicious
GoDuke
Member
Hopefully they don’t turn into cutters
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nice to see most everything is going to plan in early to mid January. Hope we can find a way to keep the good times rolling into late Jan
packfan98
Moderator
This is a great look for the SE. No cutter or app runner with this look.
packfan98
Moderator
Some of y'all must be trolling. Take the crap posts to the banter thread.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re kinda following the typical Nina winter script of cold/snow being more favored in early to mid January.
Question is do we flip back to a more typical -PNA or even a hybrid -PNA/+TNH in late January or early February?
My guess is we probably do, it’s more of a question of when exactly when flip. It kind of depends on how much “work” we put in during this pattern
Question is do we flip back to a more typical -PNA or even a hybrid -PNA/+TNH in late January or early February?
My guess is we probably do, it’s more of a question of when exactly when flip. It kind of depends on how much “work” we put in during this pattern
It's more than that, IMO. This has the earmarks of a southern slider, suppressed storm look and even the EPS is picking up on it. Obviously this is just for funsies, but if we can pull this forward we'll be tracking something in another week.This is a great look for the SE. No cutter or app runner with this look.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I ain't even gonna lie Eric, you nailed this. I admittedly have my doubts about people talking non stop about weather weeks out, but you pretty much called this one. Now we just need it to happen.
And some precip to go along with it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks. You do this long enough and understand how things interact on different scales (from climate to shorter term weather), and what your limits of predictability are in different situations, you can kinda get the hang of super long range forecasting after a while, tho it’s not easy.
I still screw up a lot & probably more than I get things right at times (like not seeing this December being cold, completely busting on this years hurricane season being so active later on, or last year banking on Feb being good when it wasn’t), but that’s not different from operational weather forecasting, it’s just a different flavor of it. Instead of worrying about what’s going to happen each specific day over the next week, you’re really worried about much broader multi-day to multi week or even multi month periods. Funnel forecasting approach.
Man, the trough axis like almost the very last thing I would be concerned about right now. The only thing I might put lower on the worry list is Gulf convection robbing the moisture feed.
Avalanche
Member
I don’t think they are trolling, just excited about cold. I really think they believe the models will deliver.
This is pretty easily how you get a suppressive pattern rather quick. Already a big 50/50 low in place. What makes this look different from the early dec pattern is far more 50/50 low and a far more open S/W US from a more west ridge axis signaling energy 
Also the pac jet is almost perfectly extended at the end of the EPS. To Hawaii. Nice Aleutian low as well
Also the pac jet is almost perfectly extended at the end of the EPS. To Hawaii. Nice Aleutian low as well
Brent
Member
Of course it's 500 hours out but. This is also a Texas based page
EC AI is far more aggressive with the Atlantic blocking with a giant west based -NAO vs the Alaskan block, rather more flatter west coast ridging. And even it was about to produce a big winter storm for the Carolina’s
Some of our best winter storms have happened with a strong block over Baffin Bay and flatter western ridge.
Brent
Member
That was our only real winter last year. The only decent accumulation and almost as cold as 2021 was
Snowman63
Member
The brunt of the cold was a little colder in my area, but the duration of the cold did not last near as long as the stretch of cold in Feb/2021.
*At / Near end of model runs*
GEFS weakest with Pac Jet / GEPS the strongest....EPS in between. Western ridge anomaly responds accordingly (diff among the 3 best seen in Western U.S. in 2nd loop)
Last 4 runs of GEFS Extended for Jan 6 - 13
-NAO on GEFS Extended
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
It seems like it's been FOREVER since we had a legitimate 50/50 but it one of those ingredients that seems to be key for us, slowing down the progression enough to allow precip to catch up with the cold. It would be really nice to see some good 50/50s.
Western ridging churning on the CMC Ensemble Dec 30 to Jan 6
Jan 1 to Jan 6 on the GEFS. North Pac Low / -EPO ridge / U.S. trough elements are improved (2nd loop is run to run change)
