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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Rain Cold said:
It's the end of the run and there's really not much point in discussing it, but this isn't really all that bad here.

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When the 300hr + GFS isn't showing all-time blocking and/or a mega southeast storm, you know we're still in trouble and have a ways to go. Or, maybe this is what we want, since those solutions never end up working out 🤣
 
I really miss the days when we'd at least have storms to track. Maybe it's model improvement to where we don't have as many fantasy storms or maybe it's just a sign of how much of a rut we've been in lately. But, it's sad when "good model runs" these days don't even have a storm on them to at least raise hopes about.

The random storm that pops up never lasts more than 1 model run.
 
WNC_Fort said:
I really miss the days when we'd at least have storms to track. Maybe it's model improvement to where we don't have as many fantasy storms or maybe it's just a sign of how much of a rut we've been in lately. But, it's sad when "good model runs" these days don't even have a storm on them to at least raise hopes about.

The random storm that pops up never lasts more than 1 model run.
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If the model improvement is why there’s not as many fantasy storms then that sucks. Because I always enjoyed the fantasy storms, even if they never became reality.
 
KyloG said:
I'm concerned with the trop PV consolidated where it's being modeled to start January. That doesn't usually fix itself quickly and with how terrible nina Feb's have been we don't have time to waste.

It did snow in part of NC a week or so ago that hopefully brings some good mojo for mid-January. It's been almost 3 years since I've seen a sleet pellet...and the thought of going 4 years really sucks.

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Yeah I think we’re probably in trouble in February this year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ve got a legit window to put away a winter storm between about January 5-20th or so. I think we will have to worry about the SE ridge as we get past MLK Day. If we want the good times to last a little longer into late January, we’ll need some deep snow cover over the conus
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That seems to be the only legit window we get in winter anymore.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ve got a legit window to put away a winter storm between about January 5-20th or so. I think we will have to worry about the SE ridge as we get past MLK Day. If we want the good times to last a little longer into late January, we’ll need some deep snow cover over the conus
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That time frame seemed favored today on the weeklies
 
Question. When you use the 500mb /12 hour change tabs on models. Is that comparing it to the model run from 12 hours earlier (previous cycle) or just past 12 hours real time, preceeding that time stamp? Hope that question makese sense. TIA
 
Models starting to bring Alaskan ridging back. finally. Now the next step is chopping the blocking in Canada and driving Arctic source energy at H5 through the block to reclaim Canada. Can’t ask for a better progression though to get cold quick again 1FD7A6CB-9157-4517-9427-34265F4A046E.gifD415100A-B0D1-4C44-B3B1-3CA9F4DACE41.gif
 
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