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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

Chealybates Country Club
 
griteater said:
I’m getting concerned with these thread titles. Dud for December and now A/C for January

If the GEFS Ext is correct, we party like it’s 1999. If the CFS and Euro Weeklies are correct, it’s over soon after it starts

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I'm concerned with the trop PV consolidated where it's being modeled to start January. That doesn't usually fix itself quickly and with how terrible nina Feb's have been we don't have time to waste.

It did snow in part of NC a week or so ago that hopefully brings some good mojo for mid-January. It's been almost 3 years since I've seen a sleet pellet...and the thought of going 4 years really sucks.

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griteater said:
I’m getting concerned with these thread titles. Dud for December and now A/C for January

If the GEFS Ext is correct, we party like it’s 1999. If the CFS and Euro Weeklies are correct, it’s over soon after it starts

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Isn’t COD the 3rd best for snow in neutral years in Webb’s composite though ? I’d imagine if the MJO lost influence, the IP warm pool would gain influence again like it did during early December, which favored -EPO and a more extended-equatorward pacific jet. Only issue is wavelengths start to shorten in late jan
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Isn’t COD the 3rd best for snow in neutral years in Webb’s composite though ? I’d imagine if the MJO lost influence, the IP warm pool would gain influence again like it did during early December, which favored -EPO and a more extended-equatorward pacific jet. Only issue is wavelengths start to shorten in late jan
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Yeah I'm perfectly fine with COD on the left hand side. Problem is, the CFS and Euro Wk want to bring the signal back around and into the E Indian Ocean (Phase 3) as fast as mid-Jan. The GEFS Ext is way different - much slower, much better.
 
griteater said:
Yeah I'm perfectly fine with COD on the left hand side. Problem is, the CFS and Euro Wk want to bring the signal back around and into the E Indian Ocean (Phase 3) as fast as mid-Jan. The GEFS Ext is way different - much slower, much better.
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The last 3 MJO passes thru Phases 7-8-1-2 lasted roughly 21 days in Jul-Aug, 17 days in Sep-Oct, and 24 days in Oct-Nov. Average that out to 21 days and that gives us a ballpark for what to expect
 
griteater said:
The last 3 MJO passes thru Phases 7-8-1-2 lasted roughly 21 days in Jul-Aug, 17 days in Sep-Oct, and 24 days in Oct-Nov. Average that out to 21 days and that gives us a ballpark for what to expect
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If it blows through them this time it will be past time for someone with knowledge to really dig into what's causing the MJO to spend very little time on the left in winter. If someone can figure out why you may have found why winter won't winter on the east coast anymore outside of a brief period here and there. Would SST's be a good place to start to place the blame?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
If it blows through them this time it will be past time for someone with knowledge to really dig into what's causing the MJO to spend very little time on the left in winter. If someone can figure out why you may have found why winter won't winter on the east coast anymore outside of a brief period here and there. Would SST's be a good place to start to place the blame?
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Just looking at it, the question becomes does it even make it through? Like grit said, the euro, which seems to have the best mjo track record, takes its usual u-turn juuuuust when we need it to keep going. So tired of seeing that tease. But, I'm open to whatever, we'll see what post holidays looks like and go from there.

I agree I wish we could figure out what the culprit is that keeps the pacific so obstinate for us for these last few years, so we could observe it and at least understand what to look out to potentially change. Also agree it's the SST's but curious what part of the ocean it is.

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SnowNiner said:
Just looking at it, the question becomes does it even make it through? Like grit said, the euro, which seems to have the best mjo track record, takes its usual u-turn juuuuust when we need it to keep going. So tired of seeing that tease. But, I'm open to whatever, we'll see what post holidays looks like and go from there.

I agree I wish we could figure out what the culprit is that keeps the pacific so obstinate for us for these last few years, so we could observe it and at least understand what to look out to potentially change. Also agree it's the SST's but curious what part of the ocean it is.

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I do remember that Webb said the other day that the overall set up we are in right now, that the GEFS is doing better with the MJO progression.
 
Problem is if we’re headed to a strong 7-8-1 transition, the pacific jet would Likely be a problem and the western ridge would likely be shunted east, especially if it was a El Niño. while it might not show up well on RMM maps, there still is a shell of a MJO wave traversing into the pac/whem in early jan. Imo the most likely outcome here is torch till early week 1 of jan, cutters and the return of cold back into CONUS and the US week 1 in general, then week 2 we start setting up the baroclinic zone south. and week 3 the trough axis starts shifting west, and there’s another shot right there as it starts to shift west.
 
SnowNiner said:
Just looking at it, the question becomes does it even make it through? Like grit said, the euro, which seems to have the best mjo track record, takes its usual u-turn juuuuust when we need it to keep going. So tired of seeing that tease. But, I'm open to whatever, we'll see what post holidays looks like and go from there.

I agree I wish we could figure out what the culprit is that keeps the pacific so obstinate for us for these last few years, so we could observe it and at least understand what to look out to potentially change. Also agree it's the SST's but curious what part of the ocean it is.

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They can't even get a few days in advance right, I wouldn't sweat the January mjo forecasts yet. Just look at the variance in that chart.

It sucks we already have to punt the whole month of December, but the start of January is looking pretty good if you ask me.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's the end of the run and there's really not much point in discussing it, but this isn't really all that bad here.

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When the 300hr + GFS isn't showing all-time blocking and/or a mega southeast storm, you know we're still in trouble and have a ways to go. Or, maybe this is what we want, since those solutions never end up working out 🤣
 
I really miss the days when we'd at least have storms to track. Maybe it's model improvement to where we don't have as many fantasy storms or maybe it's just a sign of how much of a rut we've been in lately. But, it's sad when "good model runs" these days don't even have a storm on them to at least raise hopes about.

The random storm that pops up never lasts more than 1 model run.
 
WNC_Fort said:
I really miss the days when we'd at least have storms to track. Maybe it's model improvement to where we don't have as many fantasy storms or maybe it's just a sign of how much of a rut we've been in lately. But, it's sad when "good model runs" these days don't even have a storm on them to at least raise hopes about.

The random storm that pops up never lasts more than 1 model run.
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If the model improvement is why there’s not as many fantasy storms then that sucks. Because I always enjoyed the fantasy storms, even if they never became reality.
 
KyloG said:
I'm concerned with the trop PV consolidated where it's being modeled to start January. That doesn't usually fix itself quickly and with how terrible nina Feb's have been we don't have time to waste.

It did snow in part of NC a week or so ago that hopefully brings some good mojo for mid-January. It's been almost 3 years since I've seen a sleet pellet...and the thought of going 4 years really sucks.

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Yeah I think we’re probably in trouble in February this year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ve got a legit window to put away a winter storm between about January 5-20th or so. I think we will have to worry about the SE ridge as we get past MLK Day. If we want the good times to last a little longer into late January, we’ll need some deep snow cover over the conus
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That seems to be the only legit window we get in winter anymore.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ve got a legit window to put away a winter storm between about January 5-20th or so. I think we will have to worry about the SE ridge as we get past MLK Day. If we want the good times to last a little longer into late January, we’ll need some deep snow cover over the conus
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That time frame seemed favored today on the weeklies
 
Question. When you use the 500mb /12 hour change tabs on models. Is that comparing it to the model run from 12 hours earlier (previous cycle) or just past 12 hours real time, preceeding that time stamp? Hope that question makese sense. TIA
 
NCSNOW said:
Question. When you use the 500mb /12 hour change tabs on models. Is that comparing it to the model run from 12 hours earlier (previous cycle) or just past 12 hours real time, preceeding that time stamp? Hope that question makese sense. TIA
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It’s comparing it to the last model run (previous cycle)
 
Models starting to bring Alaskan ridging back. finally. Now the next step is chopping the blocking in Canada and driving Arctic source energy at H5 through the block to reclaim Canada. Can’t ask for a better progression though to get cold quick again 1FD7A6CB-9157-4517-9427-34265F4A046E.gifD415100A-B0D1-4C44-B3B1-3CA9F4DACE41.gif
 
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