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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

BullCityWx said:
EPS has some members that absolutely send the EPO through the floor. As it stands now, the mean is at -3.
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From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
 
FallsLake said:
From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
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When are we losing the pna?
 
FallsLake said:
From the GFS ensembles this morning, the NAO is looking to drop (by average) to neutral in the LR (better). The AO is looking to drop to strongly negative in the LR (good). But, the PNA is looking to drop to near neutral / slightly positive in the LR (not as good).


From my limited understanding, we'll need a -EPO to counter the loss of the +PNA. And maybe with a negative AO we can get some cold from Siberia into the mix. Lots of moving parts.... ..and do we even believe anything that's being spit out right now...
Click to expand...
We are probably never going to get them all to line up perfectly for us. We just deal with what we get I guess.
 
Looks like this has already been discussed. I don’t like the look of burying in the null phase in early January

Thoughts?
 

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SD said:
I wouldn't be that mad to get a 96 or 00View attachment 156240View attachment 156241
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We were just outside for the best of1996, but 2000 would be very nice especially if the Jan 24-25 system could have been a touch colder and about 50-75 miles northwest to get more of the I-85 corridor in it, along with the HKY area. Also to have it form 12 hours earlier to get more of GA into it.
 
Go with the euro evolution that omega from the east coast into the north Atlantic puts us in the game right away. Rarely do we hit on the front edge of a colder transition but that would be a way to do it with the temporary 50/50 -nao construct
 
SD said:
Go with the euro evolution that omega from the east coast into the north Atlantic puts us in the game right away. Rarely do we hit on the front edge of a colder transition but that would be a way to do it with the temporary 50/50 -nao construct
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I'd much rather hit on the front end...maybe sticks around for more than an afternoon.
 
SASQUATCH said:
I'd much rather hit on the front end...maybe sticks around for more than an afternoon.
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Agreed. The good thing is we are approaching the coldest days of the year on average so there is at least a little bit of wiggle room where we don't need the deepest coldest trough over us to snow. Reasonably cold and low dews can pay out through most of January. This gives us the ability to hit on the front of a cold pattern when Canada isn't that cold yet
 
griteater said:
Euro Weekly looks a little better for early into mid-Jan on the early maps
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The other encouraging thing is the op Euro, EPS and the weeklies are all in alignment on the transition period in early January. This all fits in with the MJO and Pacific jet as well. We're in the infant stages of seeing where the chips fall, but at least we have a glimmer of hope starting to emerge come early January.
 
This is what I suspect we will see in the stratosphere - the modeling keeps hinting at it for late Dec into mid-Jan. A Canadian Warming transitioning into a Wave 2 / stretched Strat PV. Could help with cold air transport down into the CONUS

Dec 19 GEFS Ext SPV.gif
 
griteater said:
This is what I suspect we will see in the stratosphere - the modeling keeps hinting at it for late Dec into mid-Jan. A Canadian Warming transitioning into a Wave 2 / stretched Strat PV. Could help with cold air transport down into the CONUS

View attachment 156266
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I don't think we could ask for better
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It's heartening to see that all ensemble guidance continues to advertise a PAC jet retraction and the resulting +PNA right at the first of the year and not can-kicking the pattern change. I'd like to think that by Christmas we should at least start seeing some digital fantasy snows in the extended to keep us entertained.
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Next step is to go from 360 to 240, then below 180 and so on WITHOUT the blast furnace simultaneously showing back up at 360 again.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It's heartening to see that all ensemble guidance continues to advertise a PAC jet retraction and the resulting +PNA right at the first of the year and not can-kicking the pattern change. I'd like to think that by Christmas we should at least start seeing some digital fantasy snows in the extended to keep us entertained.
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There are already some ensemble members delivering at the end of their runs.
download.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Next step is to go from 360 to 240, then below 180 and so on WITHOUT the blast furnace simultaneously showing back up at 360 again.
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The REAL test is a significant event holding < 96 hrs out. When was the last time that happened outside of a few flurries snow showers during our last light event? We've lost some heartbreakers over the past few years trying to get something from D6-7 to inside D4. This place will go bananas when that ever happens again.
 
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packfan98 said:
There are already some ensemble members delivering at the end of their runs.
View attachment 156281
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This translates to a possible paste job to my north, or a nice event to my south and southwest while my backyard basically get skunked. This is more reality than not. #PAIN It's nice to see some of the members hinting, though.
 
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