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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

GaSnowhound said:
Monger, just checking in from the southern social circle burbs (just N of i20). Really hoping we can get this thing to hang together long enough to scratch out something before it pivots north!! I’m hoping for a 3/09 scenario?
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Welp, we're not getting a 3/09 and any accumulations for our backyards is a stretch. That said, yeah, I'll be up late watching obs and radar lol. You know, hoping for that tail end of the deform band to thump is for an hour or so.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Welp, we're not getting a 3/09 and any accumulations for our backyards is a stretch. That said, yeah, I'll be up late watching obs and radar lol. You know, hoping for that tail end of the deform band to thump is for an hour or so.
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I've just got a feeling that staying up late tonight could be a waste of time. But then again, with my luck i'd sleep all night and it would snow and then I'd wake up and it would already be melted.
 
Let these South Trends continue tonight and you watch NWS GSP will issue Advisories for the upstate north of 85. I'd bout bet on it cause that's way they handle things around here.

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HSV AFD mentioned thunder snow!

Models have trended up with snowfall amounts for this evening, so
that's the main change. Right now rain is spreading eastward across
Northern Alabama and Middle Tennessee. The feature we are watching
closely is the developing surface low over southwest Alabama, which
will track just southeast of our area. This puts us in the best area
for frontogenesis banding. Looking at model cross sections, all the
models show CSI as well, which will only help to enhance snowfall
rates over the area during the 7-11 PM timeframe. Can't rule out
thundersnow. The only limiting factor keeping us from very
significant snowfall amounts will be how long it takes for
temperatures to drop below freezing, and how long it takes for the
ground temperatures to drop below freezing. With significant snowfall
rates, don't think it will take too long after 00Z for northwest and
north-central Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. Areas across
northeast Alabama probably won't drop below freezing before around 10
PM, which may keep snowfall amounts lower. For these reasons, I have
upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory for this evening to a Winter
Storm Warning for our north-central counties, including our counties
in Middle Tennessee. This is the area where the heaviest snowfall
rates will occur, and where we are expecting 2 to 3 inches of snow.
Elsewhere, amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 are more likely, but everyone should
at least see snow.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I've just got a feeling that staying up late tonight could be a waste of time. But then again, with my luck i'd sleep all night and it would snow and then I'd wake up and it would already be melted.
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I retired just so I don't have to go in after looking for flurries in the street lights all night long.
 
WSW for the N GA mountains and they extended the advisory down a bit.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

GAZ032-042-043-030500-
/O.EXA.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.220103T0500Z-220103T1400Z/
Cobb-Carroll-Douglas-
Including the cities of Marietta, Carrollton, and Douglasville
355 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected with light snow accumulations from a
dusting up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cobb, Carroll and Douglas Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

GAZ005>009-030500-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.220103T0500Z-220103T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.220103T0500Z-220103T1400Z/
Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
355 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected with total snow accumulations of
one and a half to four inches forecast with locally higher
amounts possible, especially in areas 2000ft above sea level.
Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Murray, Fannin, Gilmer, Union and Towns Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$
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Is the moisture too fast for the change over?
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ryan1234 said:
It's been a long while since I last posted on here. Been really busy with work. But I have been watching and am definitely intrigued by this system. I am not expecting much if anything in regards to accumulation but it will be nice to see the first flakes of the season falling. I also wanted to chime in on some of you who are expecting 6-inch+ totals. Not going to happen except for those folks in the mountains and MA. Definitely could see some 2-3 inch totals if you end up under the deformation band and are able to get some good rates. But we need to be more realistic when it comes to these clown maps. They hardly play out. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer. Edit-Unless a low did form in the Gulf that could change everything. Still rooting for everyone who wants snow to get it.
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Welcome back!!!
 
If anyone has a 12z Euro 850 map from WX bell, mid Atlantic high res around 24hrs I would appreciate it. Still working to nail down exactly where we are going, one thing is for sure we will be on 95 north around 730 this evening. Area around or just NW or NE of Richmond.
 
DarkKnight said:
I think that is the right call. I also agree with there 2-3 inch storm totals. Could you have imagine what this system could have been if we had cold ahead of this system.
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You wouldn't get a system like this if you already had cold in place. This upper level system is being amplified by the ridge ahead of it.
 
WeatherNC said:
If anyone has a 12z Euro 850 map from WX bell, mid Atlantic high res around 24hrs I would appreciate it. Still working to nail down exactly where we are going, one thing is for sure we will be on 95 north around 730 this evening. Area around or just NW or NE of Richmond.
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I wonder what your opinion is on the latest model trends today.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Monger, just checking in from the southern social circle burbs (just N of i20). Really hoping we can get this thing to hang together long enough to scratch out something before it pivots north!! I’m hoping for a 3/09 scenario?
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Man, did you see those modeled 50mpf wind gust over our head right as the upper low is going by? Yeah, if there's ever a chance for some crazy, unexpected upper-level low shenanigans, this is it.
 
Thundersnow mentioned for my area by the NWS, now that is a first!

Monday
Rain and snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain showers between 11am and 1pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 47. Breezy, with a north wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow could
be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts have been
boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the Smokies. The
snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border counties
Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be a concern
beyond the Warning/Advisory period.
 
Stormlover said:
I think there could be some power outages with the heavy wet snow, and aloft the ground temps won't be an issue.
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Definitely. Also the wet ground makes it worse. We had a ULL back in January 2013 that dumped about 3” of heavy wet snow after two days of monsoon and had power knocked out from that IMBY. There’s some wind, too.
 
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