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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

SimeonNC said:
The Upstate SC boys should like the NAM lol
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About to hear "I told you so"...lol
I honestly hope somebody in SC sees something. Other than Florida we have been the only se state modeled out of this one.
 
Pivotal has me as rain on the 3km NAM precip maps at hour 15, but this is probably a heavy wet snow sounding.

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superjames1992 said:
It’s an elevated bridge which cools very quickly given there is cold air both on top of and underneath the bridge. You better believe the fact that it was 75 yesterday will keep roadways relatively more clear than they would be if it was 25 yesterday, though. That’s not saying it can’t stick, I’m just saying it will be harder and it will melt quicker. The NWS talks about this in their forecast discussions.
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I agree. But too many people on here go to the extreme on this topic. I was just pointing it out. We’d all love to have frozen ground for it to fall on but anyone that has lived here long knows that rarely happens and we can get good snows behind torches.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Same thing for people in va and Nc, but you gotta remember how warm its been. Going to be tough to overcome
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People have to understand just how much more thermal capacity the soil has compared to the air. Our soil almost never freezes. In the vast majority of our snows the ground never freezes. The bottom 1/2 or so of snow (true to its properties) act as a cap to the heat. But when you add in these 6 -1 ratios you're talking a significant amount more water than air in the snow which will absorb the heat being released vs insulate. If anyone is modeled under 2" I'd be shocked if it even accumulated on mulch beds.
 
Storm5 said:
What are you talking about ? You responded to a post about snowfall time not amounts


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What I’m saying is that models are showing 6”+ totals in north Alabama…so if you believe any 1 spot will see a max of 3 hours of snow, based on model output, so you also believe the same model output that says in those hours, we will see 6” of snowfall?
 
NCSNOW said:
Rockingham,Ashe, Alleghany, Watauga counties. Should be the top 4 lollipop winners. We will see. Definitely 6+ in one of those 4 counties.
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throw in Caswell too. I think now a 30 mile shift would be a gamechanger for everybody north of 40/85. We've been shifting south all day.
 
smast16 said:
People have to understand just how much more thermal capacity the soil has compared to the air. Our soil almost never freezes. In the vast majority of our snows the ground never freezes. The bottom 1/2 or so of snow (true to its properties) act as a cap to the heat. But when you add in these 6 -1 ratios you're talking a significant amount more water than air in the snow which will absorb the heat being released vs insulate. If anyone is modeled under 2" I'd be shocked if it even accumulated on mulch beds.
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On 12/16/2000 an F4 tornado hit Tuscaloosa, the temps were in the 70s. In the early morning hours of 12/17/2000, 3” of snow fell at my house which stayed on the ground for a week in the shade.
 
Oconeexman said:
About to hear "I told you so"...lol
I honestly hope somebody in SC sees something. Other than Florida we have been the only se state modeled out of this one.
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For us upstate folks I think the track is what's killing us the most. It is basically tracking right over us which a no go. We need it heading for Savannah, or at least CAE to have a shot. It is going to be hard to watch everyone from N LA to NC see snow along 85, and the upstate be the donut hole. We could be looking at a situation where the same system gets Birmingham to Atl, to Clt, to Rdu, but skips the upstate. Its normal for the MS/AL crowd to get snow and we miss East, or the CLT/RDU crowd to get it and we miss West, but i'm not sure i can ever remember it at the same time from the same system.
 
Wonder what the shortest drive to nice accums will be from the Triangle to take my kid to see it. Up through Roxboro and Danville to Martinsville and Meadows of Dan on the Blue Ridge Parkway, or straight west and up to Boone?
 
Arcc said:
On 12/16/2000 an F4 tornado hit Tuscaloosa, the temps were in the 70s. In the early morning hours of 12/17/2000, 3” of snow fell at my house which stayed on the ground for a week in the shade.
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But of the 15 days leading up to the 16th, you had 10 days that were below normal. Your soil temps were probably in the upper 40 at the most. Not 60s like they are now.

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It's been a long while since I last posted on here. Been really busy with work. But I have been watching and am definitely intrigued by this system. I am not expecting much if anything in regards to accumulation but it will be nice to see the first flakes of the season falling. I also wanted to chime in on some of you who are expecting 6-inch+ totals. Not going to happen except for those folks in the mountains and MA. Definitely could see some 2-3 inch totals if you end up under the deformation band and are able to get some good rates. But we need to be more realistic when it comes to these clown maps. They hardly play out. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer. Edit-Unless a low did form in the Gulf that could change everything. Still rooting for everyone who wants snow to get it.
 
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