I ensured that it will hit near you ARCC. I made reservations in Gatlinburg then check the forecast 45 minutes later to see it looking better for us here in Central Alabama.
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Showmeyourtds
Member
I bet that would be a great spot with the way this seems to be changing. Do they still have a lodge up there?
Is that metro Atlanta in play...1 inch in my yard I will take!
LovingGulfLows
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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I think for much of the ATL metro, it's no longer a matter of if signficant wraparound moisture makes it to us rather than how fast the temps can crash before the moisture leaves the area.
Agreed. I could see some areas being in for a surprise out of this setup. It’ll be fun to watch it as it evolves regardless.
000
FXUS62 KFFC 021508
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
...Winter Weather Advisory expanded into Bartow, Cherokee, Polk,
Paulding and Haralson Counties...
.UPDATE...
Updated 12Z model guidance has shown more aggression with snow
accumulations in NW Georgia, with trends suggesting a
stronger/sharper shortwave transitioning through the area on the
backside of the cold frontal system aided by an intensifying jet
streak to the north hinting at a potential for this winter event to
overperform. The strength of a developing near-surface low
pressure in the area will define how intense the wrap-around
precip will be across NW Georgia. While this is not typically the
winter weather setup we see in the forecast area, and keeping in
mind the record warmth we`ve had in the region for the last week
and beyond. Some guidance has hinted at a potential TROWEL
development which could boost snowfall totals in the area.
Confidence is still low at this time, but a factor to consider as
we begin to move forward through this event.
Thiem
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov
sigwx
Member
Yeah me too I'm just a few miles to the Southwest of you and I'm at the edge of the snow line modernweenie
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And run by run it seems to be increasing those odds that it drops faster or the rates are heavier in the back from what I can tell. We'll know better when we see how AL performs tbh later tonight.
I think so, but I rarely go up there anymore. Way overpriced, especially when you have a big family.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Yeh, that slight SW jog and deeper low on the latest HRRR could be huge for us I-20 folks. Down to where 20-30 miles on the low track will make or break us. As usual…
Parker
Member
Would love to continue to see trends of a rapidly strengthening low and to slowwww down.
I said this yesterday but this is so similar to last early January wrt ULL track, only difference is cause of suppression this time is confluence vs a ridge on top 
LovingGulfLows
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Seriously, just give me 30-40 more miles SW and me and almost the entire metro would definitely see flakes and maybe accumulating snow.
I have a feeling that the WWA would move South East including more metro Atlanta counties later on today.
That’s been my main concern as well. We (N. GA) can’t afford any delay in CAA feeding in from the west.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Ok, I just took an interweb crash course on what a TROWAL event is. Gotta say I like the sound of it! ?Agreed. I could see some areas being in for a surprise out of this setup. It’ll be fun to watch it as it evolves regardless.
000
FXUS62 KFFC 021508
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022
...Winter Weather Advisory expanded into Bartow, Cherokee, Polk,
Paulding and Haralson Counties...
.UPDATE...
Updated 12Z model guidance has shown more aggression with snow
accumulations in NW Georgia, with trends suggesting a
stronger/sharper shortwave transitioning through the area on the
backside of the cold frontal system aided by an intensifying jet
streak to the north hinting at a potential for this winter event to
overperform. The strength of a developing near-surface low
pressure in the area will define how intense the wrap-around
precip will be across NW Georgia. While this is not typically the
winter weather setup we see in the forecast area, and keeping in
mind the record warmth we`ve had in the region for the last week
and beyond. Some guidance has hinted at a potential TROWEL
development which could boost snowfall totals in the area.
Confidence is still low at this time, but a factor to consider as
we begin to move forward through this event.
Thiem
National Weather Service
TROWAL is used to describe a "tongue" of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. Areas of intense lift and frontogenesis are commonly associated with TROWALs, and they are favoured regions for heavy and/or prolonged precipitation. During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.
The new rap setups a death band under the upper level low between Charlotte-Greensboro tomorrow 
Parker
Member
12z GFS clown map. Some 6 inch totals in Jefferson county. Ain’t happening, but should be some silly rates.
Atlanta can do well with cold! There’s nothing to block it from flooding in!
HSVweather
Member
Forest City, AR and maybe roads becoming slick with the red/orange on the map?