Avalanche
Member
Flattened ridge?
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GFS and Euro won’t be caught up to the NAM until about 06z tomorrow. ?
A lot of the MA is going to be disappointed with the 00z GFS. I think the dynamics between how separated the wave is from the northern stream is important to determine how much the wave can dig and strengthen.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Looks like EPS
This is going to be a thread the needle setup.
0z CMC
Can’t ask for better trends if you live in NC especially since we still have time for this to cook .. what dynamics can still come into play with this sort of situation .. fun to see again still an absolute win would be seeing snow flakes falling from the sky … that’s a pattern change in my eyes lmao ?
olhausen
Member
To the latest gfs run I say ?. The cmc is our new king ?
Brent
Member
0z Euro
Seperation, a little means a lot at this stage, clearly shown on guidance, snow graphics folks look at reflect it. There is a clear handoff to the coast but when, forecasts for TN should increase, VA Capes still suspect back west to Mountains. Mountains look pretty solid, warning cri, top down approach. Shenandoah too, this should be a significant mid latitude cyclone, close to meso resolution and euro was a step towards the NAM. EE
olhausen
Member
Gfs decreased totals after showing 1-2 inches all day. Euro goes up on totals from the morning run. I suspect somewhere between a half and one inch will be a good call for the middle Tennessee area.
06z NAM is a beaut. Maybe better than 00z. Will post in a second
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Very close to delivering a big hit to the mid Atlantic
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
06Z euro really increased snow amounts around here.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty big increase on the 09Z SREF as well. Usually a good 12Z NAM leading indicator.
06z euro ?
Flotown
Member
Can you show us out west please??
ajr
Member
I don’t imagine this is a 10:1 storm though right?
Snowman63
Member
Sorry NC only. lol
Yep ! Sorry not only NC around here
This was the 06z RGEM which improved from 00z
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Trend is our friend
We usually see this reverse as we get closer. But...if it keeps going in this direction, it maybe, just maybe, it'll end up being a bigger deal.
Flotown
Member
Thanks
Idk if I like the nam look at H5, seems we’re are trying to go slightly more + tilt each run
Giddy up
Boooo 
If you live in Central NC and always wanted to see a secondary low work out this is about how you'd want to do it
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
12km is very flat
Believe it or not the Charlotte area was the best spot for snow east of the mountains this run. Lol 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Fro special!
Flotown
Member
Maybe nam just being nam...who knows
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sometimes the NAM goes way out in left field outside 36-48 hrs. Curious what other models will show
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Noticed that even more with its fairly recent “upgrade”.