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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Avalanche said:
That crap in is false. We got some mixed white rain that didnt amount to anything on cars, homes, grass, or streets. However, I guess it became a good deal NE.
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Yeah it snowed for like an hour here in the middle of the night and because I’m deranged I stayed up for it. Got maybe a half inch. The next day I drove up to north Durham and there was so much more snow there (maybe 2”). I’m in SW Durham and it sounds like going towards Chapel Hill it was literally a nothingburger.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah it snowed for like an hour here in the middle of the night and because I’m deranged I stayed up for it. Got maybe a half inch. The next day I drove up to north Durham and there was so much more snow there (maybe 2”). I’m in SW Durham and it sounds like going towards Chapel Hill it was literally a nothingburger.
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Im in Chatham and got nothing, even though the maps depict I got .7
 
Broken024 said:
I didn't know snow could stick to pavement?
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Legend has that it can. There was some street sticking from the February 2020 storm here, though it was pretty patchy depending on where was shaded versus not. I did see some street sticking out west earlier this month in Utah, though, hah.
 
o_O
namconus_asnow_us_29.png
 
And we obviously have some form of snowpack in central MO, IA, IL in to the northern Plains to work with. PNA begins to rise, sharply, going to almost neutral around the time of this storm. The upper MS River areas are about to get worked in the next 3-4 days, I think the SE and MA are up next and these should be robust systems atleast through 1/11, regardless of the rain snow line.
 
superjames1992 said:
Are you talking about this storm? I had forgotten it was on a tail end deformation band, though I’m probably just having amnesia because of how disappointing it was IMBY. I don’t even get an inch while areas NE got much, much more, and it was the only snow of the winter. And it melted almost immediately and didn’t stick to the street. I need a street sticker for snow to be worthwhile lol.

View attachment 100038

We had another catastrophe earlier in January where we were supposed to get 1-2” and only got mixed slop.
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When I woke up that next morning, we had 2” on the ground. I got in my car, drove the 10 miles to campus and this is what I found:

1F8E8EC0-58F1-41F9-B89F-AAED15F7A807.jpeg

It looks more impressive than it was. It was a dusting at most.
 
The Gfs really wants to give middle Tennessee some love. I will say it did pretty well last year for my area. The gfs was consistently showing higher totals for last Februarys storms while the euro was showing less if I remember correctly. Ended up with 8.5 inches of sleet and snow from the two systems so maybe the gfs has improved ?

7EB95B03-406A-4629-B227-C191AA631805.png
 
We need some separation between the upper MS vort, it’s not the primary show for areas east, but a player through the middle MS valley. Areas east need separation along that H5 track, it's a pretty sick evolution on the 12K NAM, what hammers southern IA is not our player at the upper levels.
 
Greenville not very bullish aside from light snow for NC/TN mountains:

“.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Thursday...No major changes were made to the ext
fcst. The guidance continues to show a slowing frontal system over
the area to begin the period and there could be lingering tstms Sun
afternoon across the ern zones. With strong and cold hipres building
in from the west, the NC mtns will become cold enuf to support sn/ip
as llvl moisture wanes during the overnight hrs. A decent chance of
upslope snow development and the NC/TN spine counties could see arnd
an inch or so of snow accum by daybreak Mon. The sfc high continues
to push in Mon and shifts east thru the period. This will maintain
dry conds, while temps begin arnd normal levels and slowly modify a
little warmer thru Wed.”
 
kstrickland0823 said:
I was about to say the same! I don’t remember getting .7! In fact, I don’t remember getting much more than a heavy frost.


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Yeah I’m pretty sure I didn’t even get 0.7” and I’m in SW Durham on US15-501 a few miles south of Duke.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah I’m pretty sure I didn’t even get 0.7” and I’m in SW Durham on US15-501 a few miles south of Duke.
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I’m starting to wonder if maps are even correct anymore! I’m in SW Chatham between Sanford and Pittsboro and we were too far south for anything the past few years!


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For this event NWS Blacksburg AFD also says mtns will suffer with any accums due to how hot we have been for “some time after freezing temps”. ?
 
While I'm not expecting much...if we could possibly get something kinda like the nam or better...soil Temps wouldn't be THAT big if a deal.....seen it before
 
NAM much slower than the Gfs .. hmmm.. also has temps beginning to crash here but they have a long way to fall … interesting interesting A89BD1C9-5233-4161-931D-75BD6DE29344.jpeg168D971F-1931-42CD-B0D4-BBD3441D19BC.jpeg4751F60E-FD8E-4BA6-874D-ABF8F874B7C2.jpeg
 
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