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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

With these Trends I think tomorrow even the upstate will be in the ballgame. The dynamics of this thing is insane

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This is gonna be our best bet, even with this thing trending north, the overall upper level low tracking on US then exiting to our east allows a dry slot to form and some occlusion with the H5 ULL, and a deformation axis to form, that’s pretty much the only hope we have with this system, soundings under it look real clean (northeast of CLT on mby) F77724FD-793A-499F-A3E4-19A9138633C8.jpeg96572F14-4DE3-4671-8383-73611C229AC4.png44464C7F-F056-4A8C-88F2-62B42E48640D.png37D18F1D-030C-4084-ACC2-D573417C0EE2.png
 
ref1km_ptype.conus.png
 
This is gonna be our best bet, even with thing thing trending north, the overall upper level low tracking on US then exiting to our east allows a dry slot to form and some occlusion with the H5 ULL, and a deformation axis to form, that’s pretty much the only hope we have with this system, soundings under it look real clean (northeast of CLT on mby) View attachment 100885View attachment 100886View attachment 100887View attachment 100888
Don’t see how we get away from this deform band let’s see what tomorrows HRRR runs show
 
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