Do tell all of us. Lol.
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This thing is about to close off 
Here it comes, closing off and shifting SE a bit as it does so, and slowing down 
packfan98
Moderator
Jesus 
That’s a pretty nice setup for hailers before the Column crash on the hrrr 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM sucks.
Lol wtf that’s some really Convective stuff 
This hrrr run is about to be epic, buckle up
The dynamics with this thing are looking to be absolutely insane if his cut off upper low scenario is the real thing … this will be such a fun event to track
Poss Thundersnow for some?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks epic for the mid Atlantic. Best run yet for those in DC
accu35
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Is there any chance this storm can produce better for central Bama. Asking for 3 friends and a dog
What does that actually mean? Is that good or bad?
So basically, the hrrr has the CLT metro area going from legitimate thunderstorms with decent lightning to a paste bomb, especially N CLT. Now that’s a weenie run 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Paste bomb for anyone 85 and NW.
Sure beats our classic 34 and rain and pray for 850s to not torch. Going to be a blast watching this one unfold on radar
WNC and MA special incoming, too amped means NW
About as a classic as a deformation zone as you can get, that’s the real wildcard here, especially for areas more W/NW
I know I was joking earlier but gosh darn look at these gusts during this event 
Snownut
Member
Can someone explain why exactly the Snow line not further west into upstate sc? I know it looks like it keeps trending better, but outside of the Mountains delaying the Cold, if this thing goes Neg tilt and closed off why wouldn't the upstate be in on some decent snow?
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
If I were to make a call map, I'd cut these totals in half as my first forecast. The main axis of snow looks to match up with history pretty well.
Gonna end up about a county or more NW, congrats all I-85 and NW of there
brendan123
Member
Big NW shift
This is why you don't really want a storm track through Southern NC to Hatteras if you want a lot of snow outside of the NW Piedmont.
Man that’s beautiful, don’t want to much of this tho, otherwise it’ll go to the shitter, but this trend is good for areas back towards the NW/western Piedmont given it closing off and slowing down
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- Location
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Cilmatologically soeaking, the sleet that shows up on this run of the HRRR for places north of 40/85 in Orange/Person/Durham doesn’t make sense.
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I dunno, I feel pretty good where I am. I’d be worried if I south of 40 though but then again, climo.
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I think we all(myself included) need to obviously be cautious with the clown maps with such a dynamic event.
The LP tracking through the state really isn’t ideal lol
Ron Burgundy
Member
Damn meso models are teasing us ATL folks. Must…resist…must…resist…Gonna end up about a county or more NW, congrats all I-85 and NW of there
NCHighCountryWX
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AFD from KGSP
kamala.cod.edu
Not ideal at all, only way we win with that is with backside snow, but imo that solution is better for us then the other ones given it would allow cold air to filter south more towards us vs the earlier solutions where it was more east, sort of liked a amped up Miller A, but looking at the mslp track now, that’s kinda ugly lol
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The fact they are using ensemble members at this range instead of mesoscale models is mind boggling.
Gsp basically explains that
. THE MAIN QUESTION RELATES TO WHETHER OR NOT THE
ATTENDANT UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OR NOT. IF THE UPPER LOW DOES CLOSE
OFF, EVEN BRIEFLY, IT WILL ALLOW A STRONGER AND SLOWER SYSTEM. THIS
WOULD ALLOW COLD AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO PLAY "CATCH UP" WITH THE
MOISTURE AND ADD IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL FORCING THAT WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT A WARNING LEVEL (4+ INCHES) SNOW EVENT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
AND CEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS INTO MOST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
POSSIBLY STRETCHING INTO SOME AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS (FOCUSED
FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO NC PIEDMONT).
Lol what happened to this model, it’s a complete outlier with the trends, it’s less amped this run 
Oconeexman
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Except for Pickens and Oconee