packfan98
Moderator
Paste bomb.
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
Currently on my hunting club in 70 degree weather and telling folks it might snow tomorrow night lol
Definitely to high on accumulation but it’s overall following the amped trends with some of the other models 
CLT is so so close. Going to be brutal being under heavy rain while a few miles north changeover.
Pulling for you NC folks! Bring her home! Bring us back to Winter!
Literally a difference of a county. Crazy
Yeah I was about to say, the soundings look ok for the whole metro area. If the rates are there, we could definitely see some fatties
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Seems like GFS, RGEM, HRRR and RAP have the right idea right now. RGEM has been the most consistent so far.
12z RGEM very 3k NAM like
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Will the ratios be 10:1 as depicted in that map in NC ?
Snownut
Member
Be nice to see this thing dig a little more to include the upstate. I still think the Northern upstate gets in on the action.
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Not sure. What's your take?
Definitely not. But whoever gets under that deformation band and collapses the column will get an inch of snow quickly.
Dang man, I wanted to hear DD's answer.
My bad homie. Lol
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- Jan 23, 2021
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
RGEM was a weenie run for the triangle with the highest totals N&W.
Heelyes
Member
This looks realistic, not the totals as much but the extreme south east wake drop off.
Uh the RAP is digging this thing a little more 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
RAP crushes most everyone 85 and NW
Straight up weenie run lol 
Starting to turn into the typical distribution with max amounts back toward the Triad and points northeast.
Starting to feel optimistic that the northern NC piedmont will at least see flakes fly. We're going to need some heavy rates for any accumulation. But I wouldn't be too surprised if some areas got an inch or two out of this
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I feel like RAP always gives me false hope of how far south the snow line will go
I know this isn’t related but it’s currently 76 degrees here, that’s just stupid at 11am on NY day
73 here. Can't wait for the 30s tomorrow afternoon. I need to start throwing some ice on my grass for optimal snow accumulation lol
L
source: me
RAP has long been the most reliable models sniffing out paste bombs inside 48hrs
source: me
This is going to catch a lot of people by surprise, I expect watches to go up for the mountains this afternoon. RAH did state the NAM is an outlier in their overnight AFD, this should be a pretty consolidated low deepening rapidly on its way ENE off the Carolina coast. Looks like a 6hr period for areas east of the mountains as the column crashes.
Canadian looks juicy at 42 for those of us to the west but my 48 frame has not loaded.
Hey guys I moved the temperature debate to whamby just trying to keep this thread event specific.
Thanks
Meanagement
Thanks
Meanagement
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
amped solutions are winning right now…..
We just need systems with further digging and negative tilt and amped up to win the day for most everyone
Avalanche
Member
Im buying it over in Nash, Edgecomb, Halifax.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Paste bomb.
I have said it before, but this keeps looking better and better as we get closer, and seeing it evolve this way is much more believable and realistic than when we see a huge storm show up 10 days out. When the storm evolves gradually like this on the models that's when it actually turns out to snow here most of the time.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Brad P. Says a chance of wet snow along I-40. I guess that’s better than what he’s been saying
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Id sleep with that 3K NAM. The RGEM and CMC were strikingly similar as well.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think most Mets have learned from past systems like this and this is a common type system we get almost every year. Always go low and hope to get surprised.