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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

mydoortotheworld said:
So if I'm understanding this correctly, Atlanta's issue is cold air not making it past the mountains? If we want snow what we're basically rooting for is neutrally tilted sooner and further S (which would benefit NC folks)
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For people out "West" basically everybody in MS/AL/GA we always want that trough to dig as much to the gulf as possible and then tilt negative if we can line up that timing with the Cold
 
mydoortotheworld said:
So if I'm understanding this correctly, Atlanta's issue is cold air not making it past the mountains? If we want snow what we're basically rooting for is neutrally tilted sooner and further S (which would benefit NC folks)
Click to expand...

Neutral/neg tilt earlier allows more moisture to wrap around the backside of the system and into the advancing cold air mass. Yes, our benefit is to the benefit of those in the Carolinas(particular N Carolina) as well. You can see it on the GEFS trend @Ollie Williams posted.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
So if I'm understanding this correctly, Atlanta's issue is cold air not making it past the mountains? If we want snow what we're basically rooting for is neutrally tilted sooner and further S (which would benefit NC folks)
Click to expand...
Atlanta isn't inhibited by the mountains, for all practical purpose, Atlanta is the base of the mountains, so we are actually higher then areas to the north and west. Like others have said, we want a more negative tilt and more moisture to drive down the column. The mountains really start blocking the cold air east of Gwinnett county.
 
J.C. said:
Atlanta isn't inhibited by the mountains, for all practical purpose, Atlanta is the base of the mountains, so we are actually higher then areas to the north and west. Like others have said, we want a more negative tilt and more moisture to drive down the column. The mountains really start blocking the cold air east of Gwinnett county.
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North and east correct. Aka ME
 
J.C. said:
Atlanta isn't inhibited by the mountains, for all practical purpose, Atlanta is the base of the mountains, so we are actually higher then areas to the north and west. Like others have said, we want a more negative tilt and more moisture to drive down the column. The mountains really start blocking the cold air east of Gwinnett county.
Click to expand...
What do you mean Atlanta is higher than areas north and west. I'm pretty sure there are some higher elevations around Cobb and Paulding.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
What do you mean Atlanta is higher than areas north and west. I'm pretty sure there are some higher elevations around Cobb and Paulding.
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I meant the metro as a whole, but yes, Paulding and Cobb are higher than areas like Bartow and several other counties in the Coosa valley.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Neutral/neg tilt earlier allows more moisture to wrap around the backside of the system and into the advancing cold air mass. Yes, our benefit is to the benefit of those in the Carolinas(particular N Carolina) as well. You can see it on the GEFS trend @Ollie Williams posted.
Click to expand...
Quite a stretch for MBY here east of Atlanta, but if that 500mB upper low goes right overhead as modeled, some pleasant surprises might be in store for the metro Atlanta area.
 
Broken024 said:
Might go up to mountains sunday night for this if it looks good. Where would be a good place to stay for this kind of set up?
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Normally you would say Avery or Watauga, but you might want a higher eastern facing slope in this case. Maybe Highlands or Cashiers.
 
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