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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

metwannabe said:
My only issue with the "cold chasing moisture" comments is this isn't your typical cold chasing moisture scenario. It's more of a ull and wave of lp forming, with backside deform band potential. I think of cold chasing moisture as more of a anafrontal scenario which this isn't but I'm probably being to optimistic lol
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They're always oversimplifying it over there. But I'd agree with them in general and lean in the direction of a few wet flakes also, at this point, if I were making an official forecast.
 
E63FB6A0-AE91-4C39-9CC4-15279E8A8CD7.jpeg

More realistic GEFS, which is still a minor improvement for my area. Individual charts will be out later.

Seeing some flakes fly down here would be a major win before this colder pattern setups and then we hopefully get something more considerable.
 
From RAH
Overnight Sunday into Monday the cold front will be gradually moving
across the region and exiting the region by Monday early afternoon.
Cold air moving in Monday morning on the back edge of the front
could result in some rain snow mix in the far NW Piedmont and
counties bordering VA as the edge of the front moves west to east.
No accumulation at this time is currently expected as by the time it
reaches the ground it will melt because temperatures have been well
above freezing for the last week. The wintry mix is only expected to
last a couple hours as the CAA moves in behind the front and as
temps continue to fall into the low 30s. As the cold drier air moves
in and the front moves out it will be a cool and windy afternoon
with temps in the upper 30s low 40s and winds 10-20mph. High
pressure builds over the region Monday night with clearing skies and
diminishing winds resulting in good radiational cooling and temps
dropping into the mid/upper 20s Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Tuesday will be a near normal day with sunny skies and highs in the
mid 40s to low 50s.
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