• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

olhausen said:
Agreed. The gfs has been giving and taking away all week. Nam has been not great for our area for a whole day now I believe. Euro has been half to just under an inch of snow for the last day. I’d love what the 18z HRRR is showing for sure. Still have plenty of time for changes though so it’ll be fun to track as we head into tomorrow. Maybe after the first round of severe weather the models will have a better handle on things.
Click to expand...
That low needs to be crossing Fla, not way up in Ga, for any help down here besides flurries.
 
J
Broken024 said:
Maybe I'm being negative here, but I doubt anyone sees more than an inch out of this outside of mountains. Snowing into puddles never seems to work out.
Click to expand...
Soil temp and sun angle aren’t the best either. We’ll get em next winter. Got to stay strong brother.
 
Broken024 said:
Maybe I'm being negative here, but I doubt anyone sees more than an inch out of this outside of mountains. Snowing into puddles never seems to work out.
Click to expand...
Yep, unless it snows real hard, first off it’s already wet outside, ground temps are warm enough to grow Bermuda grass, and temps are gonna be super marginal during this event, gonna be very hard to see sticking snow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, unless it snows real hard, first off it’s already wet outside, ground temps are warm enough to grow Bermuda grass, and temps are gonna be super marginal during this event, gonna be very hard to see sticking snow
Click to expand...
Agreed and I’m not someone who typically worries about ground temps, but let’s be real…along with the wet ground and just how abnormally warm ground temps are at the moment, it would be an uphill battle. I say just to see some flakes falling is a win, and getting a car topper or coating on the grass would be a huge bonus
 
Broken024 said:
Maybe I'm being negative here, but I doubt anyone sees more than an inch out of this outside of mountains. Snowing into puddles never seems to work out.
Click to expand...
It's not negative. It's honestly the most likely thing to happen. If you take the GFS snow map and stipulate only that the area where it shows accumulating snow will actually see some flakes falling, then you should also expect that the actual areas that will see accumulations would be the darker blues to purples. And it would be wise to cut those totals by half or two thirds.

But we're still a ways out and things can shift around a little bit.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s a pretty classic signature of a deformation band on the GFS, most of it doesn’t occur on the front or middle part, most of the snow this run happened with the deformation band View attachment 100369View attachment 100374View attachment 100370View attachment 100371View attachment 100372View attachment 100373
Click to expand...
We all know all too well that deformation bands have a mind of their own .. that snow comes down hard enough anything is possible for as long as it’s over you … should I be the first to bring up thundersnow? ?
 
WRAL has mentioned the potential for Sunday night/Monday morning:

"Rain showers remain likely tonight. Temperatures look colder Monday morning thanks to the earlier arrival of the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s. As the cooler air moves in behind the moisture a brief changeover to wet snow flakes can't be ruled out but it is not likely. Cold air chasing moisture is not a snowy set up for NC, instead we typically need the cold air here first."
 
Just read the GSP discussion. I'm not going to post but they said strong ul forcing Sunday afternoon could put the foothills in play for some snow. Im personally not expecting accumulation but the I 40N crowd should definitely pay attention for some flakes to fly. Better than nothing!
 
CyclonicFury said:
WRAL has mentioned the potential for Sunday night/Monday morning:

"Rain showers remain likely tonight. Temperatures look colder Monday morning thanks to the earlier arrival of the cold front. Lows in the mid 30s. As the cooler air moves in behind the moisture a brief changeover to wet snow flakes can't be ruled out but it is not likely. Cold air chasing moisture is not a snowy set up for NC, instead we typically need the cold air here first."
Click to expand...
My only issue with the "cold chasing moisture" comments is this isn't your typical cold chasing moisture scenario. It's more of a ull and wave of lp forming, with backside deform band potential. I think of cold chasing moisture as more of a anafrontal scenario which this isn't but I'm probably being to optimistic lol
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
Just read the GSP discussion. I'm not going to post but they said strong ul forcing Sunday afternoon could put the foothills in play for some snow. Im personally not expecting accumulation but the I 40N crowd should definitely pay attention for some flakes to fly. Better than nothing!
Click to expand...
Based on the NAM I wouldnt be shocked for areas in the Smokies northward to Roan. Although Roanoke on east to Martinsville, Danville have showed up. Curious to see how the precip field looks come verification time.

That deformation band running NE to SW might get the frontrange, foothills like you said.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top