Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[superjames1992]

I'll be leaving just before this event gets underway

Dang. At least you’ll miss out on the heartbreak.

 

[Broken024]

Hope this is cold enough that’s my only worry with the CMC View attachment 100223

 

[LukeBarrette]

Looks a lot like it’s brother the RGEM

 

[Avalanche]

Uh that precip panel needs to load View attachment 100221

IIRC, isnt this similar to Jan 2018? Moderate surface temps as well were mid 30s.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

CMC doesn't get cold enough here at the 850mb level....0c isotherm retreats north as the system amps up....as is life.

 

[Ollie Williams]

That's about where 2004 was when it bombed out.

This won't be Feb 26, 2004, only because that had a giant ridge to the north to supress the system. However, I do see some parallels to a ULL system 10 days before our major snowstorm.

 

[Broken024]

Still not done here

 

[Broken024]

 

[Chandler]

Meh

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Meh
View attachment 100231

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This won't be Feb 26, 2004, only because that had a giant ridge to the north to supress the system. However, I do see some parallels to a ULL system 10 days before our major snowstorm.
View attachment 100226View attachment 100227View attachment 100228

Kinda has that Look of a KU event hard to tell tho, but cutoff with a central us ridge and big low right off the PNW

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS and CMC have the LP In virtually the same spot at the same strength near Darlington.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

GFS and CMC have the LP In virtually the same spot at the same strength near Darlington.

GFS is a lot colder though especially aloft. It's surprising because the CMC is usually among the coldest models.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

HOLY shi*** I wake up to glorious trends! Since when has this happened to us?! Been speaking all week how minor changes can make this a much bigger deal… I would like models to keep this look obviously you know you have ptsd when your storm is less than 100 hours out and you’re nervous there is still time for this to go to poop .. but good god if I get more snow out of this system than we did all of last year …. I’m going to go bazerk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The UKmET often wants to show snow when it’s like 33 degrees and below as it’s sensitive to BL conditions, but if it trends better at H5, then the trend is definitely very legit

 

[Myfrotho704_]

While the slowing trend is good, we don’t want to slow to a point where we get a weak upper level low that lacks cold air, that’s the problem with the UK

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

While the slowing trend is good, we don’t want to slow to a point where we get a weak upper level low that lacks cold air, that’s the problem with the UKView attachment 100237

Luckily we have good diurnal timing so that can help us out a ton with a problem like this .. plus I’m inclined to think a deform band would overcome a lot of adversity thrown at it

 

[Rain Cold]

Luckily we have good diurnal timing so that can help us out a ton with a problem like this .. plus I’m inclined to think a deform band would overcome a lot of adversity thrown at it

For every 10 "rates and nighttime will have to overcome warm air" storms, only about 1 produces anything appreciable over more than a small area.

 

[Snowman63]

12Z UKMET: