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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam might come close to closing off View attachment 100529
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This set up honestly reminds me of a storm in February 1999 in which areas east of the mountains were not expected to get anything more then token flakes. However the upper energy swung through in a way much like what we’ve seen modeled this morning and the column crashed very quickly. The CLT metro went from rain and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s to heavy wet snow and thunder and temperatures in the low 30s in just an hour or so. I don’t remember the exact date, but I do know that it was a snowfall record for that day in CLT that I’m pretty sure still stands… CLT ended up with around 3 inches of paste, and we were coming out of a fairly mild period
 
In recent years it feels like the NAM led the way with temp issues. Not sure if relevant for this setup.
 
No idea if it's right but past experience has taught some tough lessons--NAM soundings with a pronounced warm nose, plus torchy surface, over the NW piedmont.

nam_2022010112_045_35.75--80.2.png
 
Poimen said:
No idea if it's right but past experience has taught some tough lessons--NAM soundings with a pronounced warm nose, plus torchy surface, over the NW piedmont.

nam_2022010112_045_35.75--80.2.png
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I think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there is
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there is
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Looked like the12K opened it up once it crossed into the Piedmont
 
I’ll take having the 3k nam on our side. Usually it is firing warning shots with temp issues. Going to be all about that band as it rolls through and when/if we get the changeover. These are usually fun to watch as you go from rain to ripping fatties.
 
Stormdoc said:
I usually take the NAM more seriously starting under 48 hrs out, that should start at 18Z for central NC
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We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.
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I agree, I would suspect the 3K should be a little more accurate as far as it’s resolution. The higher the rates of precip coming down, the cooler the thermals.
 
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