?Cmon close off I know you can do it View attachment 100530

?Cmon close off I know you can do it View attachment 100530
I doubt we see the low any further south, but the more closed and consolidated the low is, the further south the 850 low will be for us NC folks, with a quicker column crash.This probably explains the quick column crash, imagine this south even 30-40 miles View attachment 100522
This set up honestly reminds me of a storm in February 1999 in which areas east of the mountains were not expected to get anything more then token flakes. However the upper energy swung through in a way much like what we’ve seen modeled this morning and the column crashed very quickly. The CLT metro went from rain and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s to heavy wet snow and thunder and temperatures in the low 30s in just an hour or so. I don’t remember the exact date, but I do know that it was a snowfall record for that day in CLT that I’m pretty sure still stands… CLT ended up with around 3 inches of paste, and we were coming out of a fairly mild periodNam might come close to closing off View attachment 100529
These are going to be fat fat flakesMeanwhile the 3km looks somewhat like the HRRR View attachment 100539
I think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there isNo idea if it's right but past experience has taught some tough lessons--NAM soundings with a pronounced warm nose, plus torchy surface, over the NW piedmont.
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Looked like the12K opened it up once it crossed into the PiedmontI think it’s not really the sfc but just how weak the energy became as it moved over us on the 12km, it had weaker CAA in the low levels, unlike the nam 3km, stronger the system, the more backside cold air advection there is
Yep, that would ruin the whole setupLooked like the12K opened it up once it crossed into the Piedmont
That 3k nam was glorious, I mean that’s winter storm warning criteria for a lot of Alabama. Surely it’s off it’s rocker, but that is what winter weenie dreams are made of.
Same from SC...although I'm driving up early Monday morning to NC line to find flakesI'll be rooting for you guys from Georgia. This does not look like our storm.
Pivotal weather just ran most of it, more amped and precip shield farther north
I like having the Rgem showing this solution but the Nam being a little warm is a red flag. Fortunately, the Nam is a very wishy washy model. It usually does a decent job with thermals though.RGEM staying amped and consistent, honestly similar to the 12z hrrr/ 09zrap View attachment 100565View attachment 100566
We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.I usually take the NAM more seriously starting under 48 hrs out, that should start at 18Z for central NC
I agree, I would suspect the 3K should be a little more accurate as far as it’s resolution. The higher the rates of precip coming down, the cooler the thermals.We are inside 48 hours here. I would rather have the 3K on board rather than the 12K, if I had to choose one. I really think the column will crash quickly under the deformation band, once it sets up. Question is the QPF once the switch takes place.