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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

This system will be a dynamic system that will be deepening and much, much cold air will be flooding in on the backside of the low moving through. I still expect some wobbles and blips right up into tomorrow evening with this system but with what we have been experiencing this is the best scenario currently for many people to see flakes flying this season.
 
If this closes off and continues its track over the upstate as depicted, I really think those that live along and east of 26 in the upstate could see an hour or 2 of flakes flying on the backend. This thing appears to be digging more and a closed off upper level low with a secondary low is the best chance for us east of the mountains to have a shot in these setups.
 
I’m clearly off my game but at what time do the next SREF plumes come out? I noticed the 03z plumes had over a one inch mean for BHM, the 09z dropped back to about a .25 mean. I’m hopeful they shoot back up.

Need this baby to close off further west and deepen rapidly.
 
Sometimes I think that the Rap and HRRR are too amped and quick with their changeover. I was burned last year with the January snow event waiting for it to end up being delayed an hour from the HRRR. The NAM 3k did the best, so I’ll stick with that — nice to see it improved from 06z.
 
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I also know a lot of you have been saying soil temperatures don’t matter. While that’s true in upper 40’s, it’s very difficult to manage with upper 50’s IMO. I’ve personally never seen snow stick with snow with snow that is on the lower duration side either since Jan 2018, but that was a different case from the several days below freezing.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I also know a lot of you have been saying soil temperatures don’t matter. While that’s true in upper 40’s, it’s very difficult to manage with upper 50’s IMO. I’ve personally never seen snow stick with snow with snow that is on the lower duration side either since Jan 2018, but that was a different case from the several days below freezing.
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Agreed I’m thinking first 1-2 inches of snow melt and then whatever anyone can manage after that will be your total
 
I wonder when Wakefield may put out watches (if ever)... they're typically more on the conservative side so they may never be put out, but we are within 48 hours. They'll probably just wait to put out advisories, if I had to guess. This probably has too must bust potential at least in their eyes (from what I've seen in their discussions)
 
Parker said:
View attachment 100640View attachment 100641


That’s a drastic change from 00z to 12z. Maybe it’ll continue over the next 36-48 hours. I’m still hoping the 18z 3k nam doubles down.
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Yeah that's an impressive uptick and every single model showing some snow falling. Hope many can get in on this and kiss December to remember a fond good riddance
 
Ray’s Weather Center is taking notice. Guy is usually spot on. Maybe a bit conservative at the moment though.

“A fast-moving, secondary disturbance forms behind the front and moves across the Southern Appalachians and moves toward the Mid-Atlantic. Rain returns late Sunday; then precipitation changes to snow showers around or after midnight. Snow showers and flurries end Monday morning. I'm thinking about an inch of snow along a line from Independence VA, to Jefferson NC, to just east of Boone, to Spruce Pine, and western Madison/Haywood Counties. A bit more is possible west of that line, less east of the line to the Blue Ridge. Stay tuned since computer guidance still varies greatly. Winds become gusty late Sunday night.”
 
I think there’s a chance some bust high .. deformation bands are known for mischief and usually are more impressive than people think only thing is I just really wonder how the rates vs ground temps battle finished on this one .. it would be a good blueprint for the future
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
No wonder the euro looks good, it’s cutoff now View attachment 100642
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In my lifetime I’ve seen a number of decent snowfalls with a closed upper low in that area, and for the most part, the weren’t forecasted until about 48 hours of less before the event. The February 1999 storm I mentioned earlier was very similar
 
For the Alabama and Mississippi posters. Check out the increase of coverage of snowfall members from the eps. If this continues to trend in the right direction, we may also be in business. Maybe fro, Ollie, or someone else can post a wider view of the SE.

00z on top, 12z bottom B03A6BA0-D2BF-4AC9-9A2F-7B75AEA846F5.pngD9A18A94-24F2-4792-93F3-4BBEBB29E2BC.png
 
I called this out in the Jamusary thread on Thursday and it still applies here and illustrated by the EC historical loop above by KyloG, east based PNA is beginning a rapid rise and this should retrograde further west for atleast the first half of January, fun times ahead. The models are still playing ketchup with this system.

A8C21451-A54A-4434-B751-4383B65180DE.gif
 
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