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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
Not sure but does seem the slp is a little south of what the HRRR has been showing, which is interesting b/c HRRR has been one of the colder models.... problem not a huge deal as it looks like it's about to make the turn NE. Now if it doesn't all models will have busted horribly and all bets are off lol
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Yeah it’s going to have to start turning now to make the expected tract. That’s definitely going to change things if it comes in more south as the changeover is going to be delayed even further
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah it’s going to have to start turning now to make the expected tract. That’s definitely going to change things if it comes in more south as the changeover is going to be delayed even further
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I suspect that deepening ULL will basically capture it and pull it north pretty quick but hey crazy things have happened so we shall see
 
Sorry if this was already posted:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM EST Saturday: Main changes this update were a slightly
faster onset of PoPs to match current radar trends, and the tweaking
of temps and dewpoints over the next several hours based on current
OBS. This was to account for faster wet-bulbing, allowing the warm
nose to be less of a factor overnight. For some areas near I-85
where precip was expected to quickly transition to freezing rain, a
slower transition is now expected with mixed precip, (snow and
sleet), and as a result snowfall totals, (which include both snow
and sleet outside the mtns), were bumped up slightly along and south
of portions of I-85.

Winter storm still on track for the forecast area, but the trend
continues for more sleet and freezing rain outside of the NC
mountains and Blue Ridge. A little more sleet and freezing rain than
snow now expected across the in the lower French Broad valley and
the mountains west of the French Broad valley, at least early in the
event.
 
Rain Cold said:
Cool image from the 12k NAM.

View attachment 106336

2z HrrrRRrRRRr wasn't as good around here as 0z.
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Yet 2z hrrrrrrrr was a smidge better here. That model is good but it also tends to vary wildly at times, I guess that what happens when it runs every hour
 
ATLwxfan said:
Still 41 on Kimball Bridge near Northpoint. We drove to visit some friends in town and it was 43 there. Not as impressive drop as I was expecting. I guess we shall see.


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I’m down to 39 now as well. I’m a little more North into Milton near the Cherokee border.
 
Now that the precip shield looks very healthy, I suspect even more that much of ATL area is going to get a decent amount of sleet in the mix based on 850s of +1 to +2 followed probably by ZR. @jrips27 @CamWX and others reporting mangled snow flakes is confirming cold 850s likely not far from 0C. Let’s see what happens, especially later when the wedging sets in more.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Still 41 on Kimball Bridge near Northpoint. We drove to visit some friends in town and it was 43 there. Not as impressive drop as I was expecting. I guess we shall see.


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I'm around 38.8 or so here in Northern Rockdale County(close to Rockdale/Walton Co border).
 
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