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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

That’s beauty right there for Atl Metro North and East!!! and the rest of most of SE. How reliable is this model re accum totals in this range?
 
Stormlover said:
From Meteorologist Chris Lisauckis in Huntsville
Good Evening, after reviewing the latest computer model data and applying various meteorological techniques, I see no reason to change the forecast much from earlier. The Tennessee Valley Region of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee will be located in an ideal location for very heavy snow between 9am and 3pm Sunday. Whiteout conditions are likely at times over the area and travel problems will likely develop throughout the morning hours. An experimental snow forecasting index I am developing indicates 2-3" per hour snowfall rates are possible, and thundersnow. A fair amount of this snow will likely melt because of above freezing surface temperatures, however I still expect 5-7" across a large part of the area. Unfortunately, due to the difficulty of this forecast, it's not possible to predict locations where these totals are most likely at this time. The Tennessee Valley will be located in the left exit region of the high altitude jet stream portion of the storm system, which may allow temperatures to dynamically cool more than expected at the surface as heavy precipitation continues. Only a few degrees of surface temperature will separate us from getting 5-7" and 8-10" of snow. Things could change with the forecast. Please expect the unexpected.
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Never heard of this guy, he at NWS or something?
 
Down to 40/39 and heavy rain in bluff park AL - elevation 900’ on shades Mtn 10 miles south of Bham steadily dropping. Heavy rain drops falling. Warm front is to the west but that circulation is broad looks like a lot of cold and dry air wrapping on Lee side. I think this has bust in a good way!

The last snowfall gave us at 900 feet 1.5 hours MORE snow than at 550 down in Hoover!

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Was curious how the models where handling CAD for this event here on the southern edge of it so I put together a little chart for CAE to compare to observations using a handfull of global and mesoscale models.

Here are 2 snapshots from what I have down of the 00Z Saturday and 12Z Saturday Model Runs vs. Observations at CAE for 2 points so far (13:00 Saturday and 19:00). Will try and update at the 06Z observation:
00z CAE.png
12z CAE.png
 
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Lee County AL said:
So no change in forecast from earlier today ?
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Not sure, it's a snow event in Alabama. Throw everything unexpected in a bag and shake it up and you'll get whatever you land on lol, how it goes for us in the south. imo expect low accumulations, but know they're is a good chance of a boom tommorow. Snow events have a way of pulling a hat trick or two on you.
 
Zander98al said:
Not sure, it's a snow event in Alabama. Throw everything unexpected in a bag and shake it up and you'll get whatever you land on lol, how it goes for us in the south. imo expect low accumulations, but know they're is a good chance of a boom tommorow. Snow events have a way of pulling a hat trick or two on you.
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It absolutely is a potential snow event here.


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NCSNOW said:
Love that wrf, whew if only.

Allright who's in Seneca or spitting distance to the west. Check your floodlights. You should be 1st outside mtns any moment now per radar
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I'm here bro..gonna check in a minute. Got a few reports from walhalla and westminster of some dandruff
 
Not sure but does seem the slp is a little south of what the HRRR has been showing, which is interesting b/c HRRR has been one of the colder models.... problem not a huge deal as it looks like it's about to make the turn NE. Now if it doesn't all models will have busted horribly and all bets are off lol
 
Zander98al said:
Not sure, it's a snow event in Alabama. Throw everything unexpected in a bag and shake it up and you'll get whatever you land on lol, how it goes for us in the south. imo expect low accumulations, but know they're is a good chance of a boom tommorow. Snow events have a way of pulling a hat trick or two on you.
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Very true. Last big snow in my area (Phenix city Alabama / Columbus Georgia area) was 3-1-2009 and it was because of an ULL.
 
Nerman said:
HRRR has us switching to snow around 12. Let's see what it's got. If it verifies that should be a good signal for upstate and nc.
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Well, guess I'll use you guys up there in the northern/northeast suburbs as a benchmark as to whether or not I even sniff a chance at seeing snow flakes with this frontend stuff. If you guys don't see snow in the next 1.5 hours, I'm kissing my chances goodbye.
 
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