iGRXY
Member
Gfs even has the mountains in sleet and ice.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snows above freezing and rain at 19 degrees for many WNC
A Miller B that transfers from Tn to central NC? Somebody help me please, I don't recall ever seeing that
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s totally clueless. We need to just watch the ENS. This is just dumb.
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Very realistic solution!
Strong CAD should see energy transfer to a coastal, not buying that op run just yet
Cary_Snow95
Member
Because it's never happened. It's literally transferring directly over a cold dome. Makes no sense
iGRXY
Member
Yeah the OP is on drugs. And I’m talkin good drugs. Until the ensembles sway this thing is putrid. I’ve never seen a model force LP into the heart of a CAD dome the way this model does. It’s laughable at this point.
blueheronNC
Member
Since when was I-95 the Gulf Stream?
Has to be a helluva cold air dam to hold off that beast
Showmeyourtds
Member
Meh GFS run for lots of us, IMO
Yea okay... 
Where did that high come from off of Mexico coast?
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The news gets worse. Hopefully the ensembles look fine
This run is suspect because that low track just isn't going to happen.
Benholio
Member
0z GFS isn't that different than 18z. I think we're getting fooled because the identified position of the low transfers and if that transfer is just slightly different on timing, the same frame from 18z and 0z look wildly different. But the overall track is pretty much the same
mydoortotheworld
Member
Supercell streaks across the western atlantic!
The NW trend has continued for the past four runs. The core of the upper low has gone from Savanah to WSW of Nashville.
The question is does this NW trend end now. Rarely does right up until verification.
The question is does this NW trend end now. Rarely does right up until verification.
accu35
Member
if we play our cards right then places west of the app could see some decent wraparound
I mean this track
24 hours ago to now. Hate this model lol
iGRXY
Member
GEFS has more confluence and more CAD through 84 so far
carolinachaos
Member
The way the low is tracking it’s as if there is a SER
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If it transfers and cuts near Oklahoma what are the chances of that
accu35
Member
Once again 0z gefs is south of its operational.
^ that snow map looks very climo even if we think it’s wrong it may be more realistic
Benholio
Member
If the GFS solution is crap, at least it is consistent crap. Here's 18z vs 0z
It had it parked in the vip spot NY state at 1035 when precip started. HP pulled into the parking spot right at the right time. Surface temp 21 and pouring rn, sleet
The question you want to answer for this particular run is how does the evolution of this mean compare to the evolution of the last mean?
NWMSGuy
Member
Not discarding that run,it even has the 1-3” snow northern Charlotte to near nothing closer to the city like I mentioned earlier Today. Ice always lowers totals but still sig. storm
Brent
Member
As bad as it is back east I'm actually trending towards accumulating snow on the GFS ?? our weekend was sunny and dry 
iGRXY
Member
GEFS is less amped again lololol
NWMSGuy
Member
Benholio
Member
Interesting, there must be some faster ensemble members, as the operational is dry in GA and east half of TN at the same point
View attachment 104195
The 2 highs to the north needs to be strong around 1035mb in order to help The I-20 group.
The 2 highs to the north needs to be strong around 1035mb in order to help The I-20 group.
NWMSGuy
Member
I'm sure there are a few flatter, weaker, faster members still holding on