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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Gotta be more inclined to believe the ICON with its evolution in such a strong CAD event .. an eventually climb above freezing for a time but a much longer period of freezing temperatures for a longer duration for a lot of central NC .. I just don’t believe this erodes away as fast as the GFS has been printing out
 
BirdManDoomW said:
There’s a difference between the initial snow thump and the pre event..some modeling (past gfs runs) suggested a band of snow coming out of Kentucky and threatening Boone to Winston Salem and southern Virginia 6-12 hours before the precip even starts in the CLT metro.
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Oh I know what you’re saying. However those past GFS runs had a low track much further north than what the NAM just showed and it’s following other guidances. With the more southerly track, the forcing to set up that pre-event comes further south as well. This is something that I’ve seen a number of times with a low track like this…the January 2002 storm is just one example of it
 
malak05 said:
If the NAM is to be believed then in Georgia your getting hit with a major freezing rain then getting anywhere between 2-6 inches depending on location on the backside snow on top of that... That's power outages glory and frozen everything insulted by snow nice... :/
Plus Temps on Monday high is 40 partly cloudy and that doesn't factor in the snow etc on ground which in these events we always know causes temps to never verify on the high. Tuesday will have similar issues all be it sunnier but your probably not getting very far around parts of GA to Wednesday to be honest.
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Ice with a few inches of heavy wet snow will be a nightmare. The ice on the trees and power lines will allow the snow to stick like glue when it may other wise fall off.
 
12z RDPS

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Gotta be more inclined to believe the ICON with its evolution in such a strong CAD event .. an eventually climb above freezing for a time but a much longer period of freezing temperatures for a longer duration for a lot of central NC .. I just don’t believe this erodes away as fast as the GFS has been printing out
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On the 12z run it now only has RDU briefly jumping above freezing. Even then that occurs with a lull in the precipitation; so most has ended up falling as frozen/freezing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Even if you knock off the totals by half, with the expected 20 to 30 mph winds and maybe gusts up to 35, we're still seeing a widespread 3 on this scale. Worst case is a 5 through charlotte area so I'm hoping we don't see that much ice.


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Every storm there are models that pump crazy ice totals which, to nobody's surprise, never pan out.
 
Icon precip evolution gives me anxiety issues I feel like there would be at least a non-zero chance of a Carolina split with qpf on the east side of Charlotte to Raleigh.
 
The ICON was about six hours faster with the upper features than the NAM and its own 6Z run. This is probably why surface temps ticked up a tad in N Ga. By hour 81, it places the vort max over Augusta! I'll take my chances with that set op
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Shawn said:
For those who missed it; I think it was said Ryan Maue likes the RDPS over the NAM and that guy lives and breathes models!
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He also said the ICON was a great model and those 2 have a slightly different SLP track right now, going to be interesting
 
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