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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

NickyBGuarantee said:
Sheesh doesn’t matter if we turn to all rain at some point. After already dropping .25-.5 inches of freezing rain on top of a healthy layer of sleet … rip power for most of central NC
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You'd be surprised how much ice it takes to really become a major outage issue, .25 minor issues, .5 or more before real problems start to surface. Verbatim it's borderline advisory/warning criteria across most of central NC.

edit: corridor between I-95 and US 1
 
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I imagine the NAM tapping into the Gulf is what is causing the mixing further NW. Look at all that warm air being pulled in at 850 mb
 
metwannabe said:
You'd be surprised how much ice it takes to really become a major outage issue, .25 minor issues, .5 or more before real problems start to surface. Verbatim it's borderline advisory/warning criteria across most of central NC.

edit: corridor between I-95 and US 1
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Not sure I'd call it borderline...maybe east of the Triangle. It's a combo of snow/sleet/fzrn. A 0.25" of fzrn can cause significant problems if the wind is moderate to strong which it will be.
 
cyclogent said:
very Feb 2014'ish on that run of the NAM. riding the line as the deform band sits and pivots overhead
but end of the NAM run isn't in its wheelhouse. gonna need to see the rest of the 12z suite to buy that
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If I remember correctly the NAM nailed that storm perfectly..
 
DopplerWx said:
its the nam thermals at 84hr, dont sweat it. ill really start worrying about temps inside 48hrs. the takeaway should be our positive trends we saw this run esp in the first 54hrs or so.
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I agree with you. Besides looking at the soundings I would take ZR output with a huge grain of salt. There’s some snow to start out there for southern and eastern portions of CLT metro, but then it’s mostly sleet until the end of the run. The other big take away is how just how much the end frame is taking on the look of a classic Miller A with an inland track… a big change from the Miller B and hybrid looks we saw for a couple days. Unfortunately for the folks to the east it looks to still have an inland track. The good news about a Miller A, at least for the Carolinas is that typically there is a smaller area of ZR, though you can certainly see a wide area of heavy sleet
 
This like all winter storms in the SE is particularly difficult. the track of the storm and the strength of the storm are the first thing to look at. But the "in my back yard " details, the anatomy of the storm is maybe more important. The intricate details can bring jubilation to the unexpecting, and weeping and gnashing of teeth to the "bet the farm it's gonna be a big one" back yards.
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WxGSO said:
Not sure I'd call it borderline...maybe east of the Triangle. It's a combo of snow/sleet/fzrn. A 0.25" of fzrn can cause significant problems if the wind is moderate to strong which it will be.
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Yeah I edited it to clarify I was thinking I-95 to US 1 corridor, eastern edge of that less likely issues, west side of that more... but I agree with you and kinda splitting hairs on locations/zones etc. Also I was trying to temper young Nicky's excitement lol
 
WxGSO said:
Favorable trend on the NAM for a board wide event. With the amount of dry air in the Carolinas, I would bet there would be a better front end snow than shown.
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Nam 12km sucks with front end snow in cad setups around here, I’m willing to bet hrrr shows it good
 
For those new here it’s common for 1) pre-event snow to break out before the main event 2) NAM is a short range model that oftens trends colder leading up the event 3) snow maps are bad when it’s mixing so are ice maps it takes a lot of human input to create boundaries on who sees what and how much 4) backside snows are rare and almost never survive crossing the mtns due to downsloping winds 5) there’s more but I enjoy watching people react
 
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