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Pattern Jammin' January

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snowlover91 said:
Verbatim that look would probably suppress and shred most systems keeping it cold/dry.
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I think you alluded to timing. If we can catch a wave riding in before the PV presses down too much OR if our cold press isn’t as strong OR if we can build those heights a little closer to the west coast it might be a go. If that fails I’ll gladly take a period of suppression so my lawn can dry out and get ready for when I seed it in a few weeks
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think you alluded to timing. If we can catch a wave riding in before the PV presses down too much OR if our cold press isn’t as strong OR if we can build those heights a little closer to the west coast it might be a go. If that fails I’ll gladly take a period of suppression so my lawn can dry out and get ready for when I seed it in a few weeks
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Yeah if the PV drops down like that generally the best way to get a good SE winter event is for a wave to move through as it's pressing down keeping it suppressed but not shearing it out or for one to roll through as it is slowly lifting out. My current thinking is after the 25th we should have some better chances here in the NC/SC area assuming the ridge out west behaves.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think this is where @Rain Cold wants the PV. If this happens and it doesn’t snow, do we even deserve snow?
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I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

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While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
 
snowlover91 said:
For those of us in NC, SC and GA here is my take on the upcoming pattern and what we need to see for some winter weather chances.

Notice first that there is very little ridging out west so energy is entering the US and pretty "flat" which makes it incredibly easy for a storm to form and cut. Our storm on the 20th is in Nevada in this frame and you can see if it moved due east across the US it would take the low pressure over us or to the north. Now add in all the energy flying around and you get a storm that juices up and ends up cutting up the Apps putting our region in the warm sector.
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Notice the next storm, this is the energy for the 23-25th system. Once again there is very little ridging out west and it is in almost an identical position to the previous storm. This would favor another cutter IMO.
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Now notice the significant change that happens past 200+ hours that could change things in our favor. A tall ridge builds in and forces the energy to either go up and over it OR cut underneath it. This ridge is a bit far west for my liking but it's a 10 day run so no need to go into details. The main takeaway is we finally have a large ridge that can help force some of the energy to the south into Texas/Mexico which is where we want to see it for a nice Miller A or southern slider scenario to occur. Model don't really develop this feature until around the 24-25th so I would look to see how this evolves in future more runs. Without this feature places in NC, SC and GA will need to either hope for the PV to drop south and suppress the storm track (but also risk shredding the energy, cold/dry pattern) or hope for a perfectly timed sequence of waves which is difficult to accomplish.
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The EPS also agrees quite well with the look overall, again I'd like to see the Western Ridge shifted east a bit but it is still a much better look than what we have taking place the next 7 days.
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The 12z Euro look is closer to what we want but still needs to shift things east a little bit more.
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Honestly, I know many on here will jump down my throat for saying this, but I think all we need for good wintry weather in SC and Ga is a -EPO ( Tall ridge) which now all models are forecasting.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

View attachment 11241

While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
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I think what we will need to look for if we get the tall ridge as modeled are storms cutting under it and heading through the Gulf. We need that ridge east a bit and the PV just a touch north. Honestly this far out the overall setup is pretty good and the details can be worked out as we get closer, we at least have the players lining up. Whether or not they can snap the football before the clock runs out is another story...
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

View attachment 11241

While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
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I can remember storms as a kid where it would snow and be in the 30s for highs the rest of the week. I’m guessing those storms came from energy riding a digging PV with Arctic air staying thereafter?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Honestly, I know many on here will jump down my throat for saying this, but I think all we need for good wintry weather in SC and Ga is a -EPO ( Tall ridge) which now all models are forecasting.
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It's an important piece of the puzzle for sure. I personally like a nice PNA out west that forces our energy to dig south into Texas/Mexico area or undercuts it and enters over the Baja region. That's how we get a lot of our GOM Miller A storms and gives some nice wiggle room even if the storm amps up some. Models show this feature developing after the 24th and as we get closer I wouldn't be surprised if more wintry solutions begin appearing... we just have to patiently wait for the 20th and 23-24th system to pass first.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can remember storms as a kid where it would snow and be in the 30s for highs the rest of the week. I’m guessing those storms came from energy riding a digging PV with Arctic air staying thereafter?
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In order for it to get cold and stay cold, you have to have ridging out west and/or blocking. Something has to continually feed cold air in (continuous northerly flow) or you have to have something to trap the PV near the area (blocking). I don't know what the actual pattern was for the storms you're talking about, but it was most likely one of those two or a combination of both.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know it’s been said a million times but patience is key. Euro is usually the best but just look how different it is every run from D5-10. Another new look today. It’s gonna happen.
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Agreed. We need to start looking at NOGAPS , Korean, and JMA. One of the models is bound to be first to see the next SE snowstorm, which should begin to pop up anyday now. Bet we are tracking by the weekend.
By sunday we will be able to see into February 240hr mark
 
NCSNOW said:
Agreed. We need to start looking at NOGAPS , Korean, and JMA. One of the models is bound to be first to see the next SE snowstorm, which should begin to pop up anyday now. Bet we are tracking by the weekend.
By sunday we will be able to see into February 240hr mark
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Please. Bring back the dgex model.... I miss those bright color clown maps lol
 
snowlover91 said:
It's an important piece of the puzzle for sure. I personally like a nice PNA out west that forces our energy to dig south into Texas/Mexico area or undercuts it and enters over the Baja region. That's how we get a lot of our GOM Miller A storms and gives some nice wiggle room even if the storm amps up some. Models show this feature developing after the 24th and as we get closer I wouldn't be surprised if more wintry solutions begin appearing... we just have to patiently wait for the 20th and 23-24th system to pass first.
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This is spot on.......
 
Storm5 said:
This eps run has to be the coldest yet HOLY HELL
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Man, if I lived north of the red line, I would be so stoked right now. Our friends in northern TX up across far northern MS and AL and western TN up through the northern mid-Atlantic, the midwest, and Mexico are going to get decimated.

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Maybe in the next few frames over the next run or two, the deeper anoms will migrate to the south and east some.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol what’s this WAR you speak of
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Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.

Perhaps the western ridge is too far west, which pops more of a SE ridge?
 
SnowNiner said:
Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.
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Yeah by day ten it’s pretty much gone
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SnowNiner said:
Thanks Storm, that's strange. With that look you'd think the cold would have a better push southeast. The block is building in on top of the PV nicely. Perhaps it's the SE ridge that's keeping it back. SE ridge doesn't look strong through.

Perhaps the western ridge is too far west, which pops more of a SE ridge?
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Eventually the trough in the means slides east and amplifies in virtually all guidance, that's huge red flag that there's going to be at least one pretty massive storm somewhere in the vicinity of the OH/TN Valleys or Great Lakes that interacts the PV lobe coming down out of Canada, eventually helping to establish the coveted SE Canada gyre that we often need to shear & suppress shortwaves within the subtropical jet in addition to supplying us with copious amounts of cold air.

Contrary to what some have claimed here earlier wrt a pattern like this largely being cold & dry, I actually think it's probably going to be active or try to be anyways given we're in an El Nino event that will also become superimposed onto a west-central Pacific MJO event at the end of the month which often invigorates the subtropical jet and the waves within it in our part of the world.
 
In comparison to what we have seen the last several years pattern wise, I don't think you can ask for a better shot than what is "possible" per the model outputs downstream. Might not pan out but it's lining up rather nice to those with a tad bit of patience.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eventually the trough in the means slides east and amplifies in virtually all guidance, that's huge red flag that there's going to be at least one pretty massive storm somewhere in the vicinity of the OH/TN Valleys or Great Lakes that interacts the PV lobe coming down out of Canada, eventually helping to establish the coveted SE Canada gyre that we often need to shear & suppress shortwaves within the subtropical jet in addition to supplying us with copious amounts of cold air.

Contrary to what some have claimed here earlier wrt a pattern like this largely being cold & dry, I actually think it's probably going to be active or try to be anyways given we're in an El Nino event that will also become superimposed onto a west-central Pacific MJO event at the end of the month which often invigorates the subtropical jet and the waves within it in our part of the world.
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You can see the STJ lurking on a lot of the long range models. I too have a hard time seeing anything getting shut down and think it's more things are shifted south

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SD said:
You can see the STJ lurking on a lot of the long range models. I too have a hard time seeing anything getting shut down and think it's more things are shifted south

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This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
 
WxWatch said:
WSBTV does not issue product warnings. The NWS takes care of that. Also, I'm not sure where you got that from. There are no winter weather advisories for northwestern GA.
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sorry I had my eyes dilated today and saw a post someone had shared .I deleted it as soon as I realized.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
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Sorry for the banter but Webb please RE post this every hr. ! Thank you


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Webberweather53 said:
This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
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All of that, with a massive lobe of very cold air over a dense snow pack through the OH valley and New England. The table is set for a memorable event(s). Now the fun part is almost here - seeing who gets what and actually having real storms to track and not a bunch of erroneous model noise 10+ days out.
 
1300m said:
All of that, with a massive lobe of very cold air over a dense snow pack through the OH valley and New England. The table is set for a memorable event(s). Now the fun part is almost here - seeing who gets what and actually having real storms to track and not a bunch of erroneous model noise 10+ days out.
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What do you think the time frame is for having our first real trackable storm?
 
Sleet City USA said:
What do you think the time frame is for having our first real trackable storm?
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Based on the latest trends it appears (most likely) the 1/20 system will cut. I'm still keeping an eye on the next one around 1/23 if the timing could improve but the really favorable pattern arrives behind that one around 1/25 and after.

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