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Pattern Jammin' January

Jessy89 said:
We was going to have a winter storm the 20th. Then it backed up to the 23-24th now it’s the 30th. Does anyone see a pattern here?


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We were never going to “ have “ a winter storm . Those are general time frames that might work out for some and might not . You can see how volatile everything is just yesterday at 18z we had a massive storm show up . For some reason people take these op runs as gospel and then when they show something different they freak out ‍




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Storm5 said:
We were never going to “ have “ a winter storm . Those are general time frames that might work out for some and might not . You can see how volatile everything is just yesterday at 18z we had a massive storm show up . For some reason people take these op runs as gospel and then when they show something different they freak out ‍




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Which is part of the fun
 
Storm5 said:
We were never going to “ have “ a winter storm . Those are general time frames that might work out for some and might not . You can see how volatile everything is just yesterday at 18z we had a massive storm show up . For some reason people take these op runs as gospel and then when they show something different they freak out ‍




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I feel like this has been happening all year. Everything being pushed back remember back in December we was saying beginning of January. Then it became middle of January now end of January. I do believe we will get cold and still believe we have potential. I’m just pointing out the pattern I’ve noticed.


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Jessy89 said:
We was going to have a winter storm the 20th. Then it backed up to the 23-24th now it’s the 30th. Does anyone see a pattern here?


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Nothing has been pushed back. Usually the term "pushed back" refers to a pattern change or cold air being delayed. Nothing has changed with the pattern. The time frames you mentioned were being watched for threats, just last last weekend's storm. Sometimes the threats become SE winter storms, but most of the time they will go poof or north. We will keep taking them one at a time and see what happens. No pushing back, just looking a the next storm.

I also think that the SE has been lucky to have the first major threat of the season actually produce big storms last winter and this winter. It sometimes makes us a little jaded when all of the threats don't produce like that. If they all produced, we would be getting around 10-12 SE storms per winter!
 
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Looks like there were 4 ensemble members that has some energy produce some winter weather on the backside of our front this weekend. Pretty big jump after losing it in earlier runs. Still a little more time for that to trend into a little something for the Triangle and points NE I would say. Here's a snapshot:
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Jessy89 said:
We was going to have a winter storm the 20th. Then it backed up to the 23-24th now it’s the 30th. Does anyone see a pattern here?


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Anytime after this weekend though a snowstorm could show up. Most good storms don’t show up a few weeks out. Usually around 5-6 days before something wintery will start showing up. We will have the cold after this weekend and that is a great step in the right direction.
 
The ensemble mean for the GFS continues to look good, meanwhile the ops have nothing but rain. Which one is going to blink first?

I also have not seen much from the other ensembles except the GFS. I know folks are saying the pattern is right on course, while others are saying things keep getting pushed back. I think those folks mean the storms on the op model runs keep showing up further down the road. Some folks are hearing how the pattern looks like it will be great and then looking at the model runs and asking, "Where's the beef?" Hopefully, we will start seeing storms on the op runs again soon. They were showing multiple storms last weekend between the 20th and 28th, and now they have disappeared. Of course, we could have something come back by next Monday, when it looks like the timing for the great pattern that is being predicted to kick off.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The ensemble mean for the GFS continues to look good, meanwhile the ops have nothing but rain. Which one is going to blink first?

I also have not seen much from the other ensembles except the GFS. I know folks are saying the pattern is right on course, while others are saying things keep getting pushed back. I think those folks mean the storms on the op model runs keep showing up further down the road. Some folks are hearing how the pattern looks like it will be great and then looking at the model runs and asking, "Where's the beef?" Hopefully, we will start seeing storms on the op runs again soon. They were showing multiple storms last weekend between the 20th and 28th, and now they have disappeared. Of course, we could have something come back by next Monday, when it looks like the timing for the great pattern that is being predicted to kick off.
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They haven’t disappeared it’s just a different solution . They’ve disappeared in your eyes cause they don’t show snow . All the systems you mentioned are still showing just with a solution you don’t like


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Brick Tamland said:
The ensemble mean for the GFS continues to look good, meanwhile the ops have nothing but rain. Which one is going to blink first?

I also have not seen much from the other ensembles except the GFS. I know folks are saying the pattern is right on course, while others are saying things keep getting pushed back. I think those folks mean the storms on the op model runs keep showing up further down the road. Some folks are hearing how the pattern looks like it will be great and then looking at the model runs and asking, "Where's the beef?" Hopefully, we will start seeing storms on the op runs again soon. They were showing multiple storms last weekend between the 20th and 28th, and now they have disappeared. Of course, we could have something come back by next Monday, when it looks like the timing for the great pattern that is being predicted to kick off.
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The crux of the issue is that nobody is comparing apples to apples. Firstly, most of the people who have issued winter forecasts have suggested the last half of winter, more specifically, the last part of January into March, would hold the best prospects for cold and snow in the east. That view hasn’t changed or gotten pushed back. And now, after being warm most of the winter thus far, the models are picking up on the transition to a colder and stormier pattern, right on queue.

None of that means it will snow across the entire southeast at the outset of the pattern change.

Secondly, threats pop up in the long range panels of the operational andthen the go away. The ensemble mean images that everyone posts are made up many members which, individually, probably show and lose storms with each run. This is hidden because you usually see the mean snowfall image, which will show snowfall because at least one of its members has snowfall. And the chances are, at least one of the many members will have snowfall.

This is why the ensemble mean may show snow, even when the pattern on the operational looks bad and there is no snow there.

Thirdly, and you have said this yourself many times, snow events tend to pop up within a few days. We don’t usually have the privilege of tracking them in from several days out. Whether or not a model can astutely put the perfect pieces together in an incredibly chaotic and three dimensional fluid, is irrespective of the potential of the pattern.

Seeing a snowstorm 240 hours out on a model is no more predictive of snow than not seeing one, though it’s nice to see.
 
I may be mistaken but I recall the GFS sniffing out both the December 2017 and January 2018 snow events in Atlanta. Both in the 6 to 7 day range. Ensembles weren’t great but I can’t recall if they saw anything in the long range.


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Storm5 said:
They haven’t disappeared it’s just a different solution . They’ve disappeared in your eyes cause they don’t show snow . All the systems you mentioned are still showing just with a solution you don’t like


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Rain Cold said:
The crux of the issue is that nobody is comparing apples to apples. Firstly, most of the people who have issued winter forecasts have suggested the last half of winter, more specifically, the last part of January into March, would hold the best prospects for cold and snow in the east. That view hasn’t changed or gotten pushed back. And now, after being warm most of the winter thus far, the models are picking up on the transition to a colder and stormier pattern, right on queue.

None of that means it will snow across the entire southeast at the outset of the pattern change.

Secondly, threats pop up in the long range panels of the operational andthen the go away. The ensemble mean images that everyone posts are made up many members which, individually, probably show and lose storms with each run. This is hidden because you usually see the mean snowfall image, which will show snowfall because at least one of its members has snowfall. And the chances are, at least one of the many members will have snowfall.

This is why the ensemble mean may show snow, even when the pattern on the operational looks bad and there is no snow there.

Thirdly, and you have said this yourself many times, snow events tend to pop up within a few days. We don’t usually have the privilege of tracking them in from several days out. Whether or not a model can astutely put the perfect pieces together in an incredibly chaotic and three dimensional fluid, is irrespective of the potential of the pattern.

Seeing a snowstorm 240 hours out on a model is no more predictive of snow than not seeing one, though it’s nice to see.
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Great posts folks!

To dumb it down a bit ... models are just that ... representations ... not reality.

If they were, they would be named "God" ...

... and none of us would be here wondering about flakes next week ...

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Model: a simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions
 
Storm5 said:
They haven’t disappeared it’s just a different solution . They’ve disappeared in your eyes cause they don’t show snow . All the systems you mentioned are still showing just with a solution you don’t like


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Rain Cold said:
The crux of the issue is that nobody is comparing apples to apples. Firstly, most of the people who have issued winter forecasts have suggested the last half of winter, more specifically, the last part of January into March, would hold the best prospects for cold and snow in the east. That view hasn’t changed or gotten pushed back. And now, after being warm most of the winter thus far, the models are picking up on the transition to a colder and stormier pattern, right on queue.

None of that means it will snow across the entire southeast at the outset of the pattern change.

Secondly, threats pop up in the long range panels of the operational andthen the go away. The ensemble mean images that everyone posts are made up many members which, individually, probably show and lose storms with each run. This is hidden because you usually see the mean snowfall image, which will show snowfall because at least one of its members has snowfall. And the chances are, at least one of the many members will have snowfall.

This is why the ensemble mean may show snow, even when the pattern on the operational looks bad and there is no snow there.

Thirdly, and you have said this yourself many times, snow events tend to pop up within a few days. We don’t usually have the privilege of tracking them in from several days out. Whether or not a model can astutely put the perfect pieces together in an incredibly chaotic and three dimensional fluid, is irrespective of the potential of the pattern.

Seeing a snowstorm 240 hours out on a model is no more predictive of snow than not seeing one, though it’s nice to see.
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I understand it is a different solution, but the solution going from snow to rain is what others are talking about when they say things are pushed back. And I understand the ensembles are different, and seeing snow on the ops now versus later is possible. I was just trying to explain what some others are feeling, why they are looking at the ops and wondering where the winter storms are and why they are not showing up if the pattern is turning into one that is good for producing snow. I guess people are just being impatient.
 
Rain Cold said:
The crux of the issue is that nobody is comparing apples to apples. Firstly, most of the people who have issued winter forecasts have suggested the last half of winter, more specifically, the last part of January into March, would hold the best prospects for cold and snow in the east. That view hasn’t changed or gotten pushed back. And now, after being warm most of the winter thus far, the models are picking up on the transition to a colder and stormier pattern, right on queue.

None of that means it will snow across the entire southeast at the outset of the pattern change.

Secondly, threats pop up in the long range panels of the operational andthen the go away. The ensemble mean images that everyone posts are made up many members which, individually, probably show and lose storms with each run. This is hidden because you usually see the mean snowfall image, which will show snowfall because at least one of its members has snowfall. And the chances are, at least one of the many members will have snowfall.

This is why the ensemble mean may show snow, even when the pattern on the operational looks bad and there is no snow there.

Thirdly, and you have said this yourself many times, snow events tend to pop up within a few days. We don’t usually have the privilege of tracking them in from several days out. Whether or not a model can astutely put the perfect pieces together in an incredibly chaotic and three dimensional fluid, is irrespective of the potential of the pattern.

Seeing a snowstorm 240 hours out on a model is no more predictive of snow than not seeing one, though it’s nice to see.
Click to expand...

I hear you but if the ensemble has several members and thus a potentially higher predictive value, what is the purpose of the operational model?


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Brick Tamland said:
I understand it is a different solution, but the solution going from snow to rain is what others are talking about when they say things are pushed back. And I understand the ensembles are different, and seeing snow on the ops now versus later is possible. I was just trying to explain what some others are feeling, why they are looking at the ops and wondering where the winter storms are and why they are not showing up if the pattern is turning into one that is good for producing snow. I guess people are just being impatient.
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But just cause it’s a rainy solution does not mean it’s pushed back it means it’s a different solution . Huge difference


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ATLwxfan said:
I may be mistaken but I recall the GFS sniffing out both the December 2017 and January 2018 snow events in Atlanta. Both in the 6 to 7 day range. Ensembles weren’t great but I can’t recall if they saw anything in the long range.


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Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I hear you but if the ensemble has several members and thus a potentially higher predictive value, what is the purpose of the operational model?


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Wanna know something that’ll really get your goat? Without the operational, there would be no ensembles!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
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CMC you’re totally right. I remember now thinking how crazy that was!


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pcbjr said:
Great posts folks!

To dumb it down a bit ... models are just that ... representations ... not reality.

If they were, they would be named "God" ...

... and none of us would be here wondering about flakes next week ...

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Model: a simplified description, especially a mathematical one, of a system or process, to assist calculations and predictions
Click to expand...
Best post of the New Year...
 
ATLwxfan said:
Sure I get that but isn’t the operational just one of the members of the ensemble?


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I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Sure I get that but isn’t the operational just one of the members of the ensemble?


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Operational is the starting point for each member. Each member tweaks certain initial variables from the operational to come up with a different possible solution but still center around the initial run. (I may have simplify that a little to much) Those with more knowledge correct me if I am wrong on the idea tho.
 
Rain Cold said:
I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
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Thanks a lot. Great summary! So it’s abundantly clear that this run to run obsession that many including myself have with the Op runs for 10 days out is somewhat of a fool’s errand. The GEFS has been a steady ship.


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Snowflowxxl said:
Im sorry but you are mistaken, at least on the December storm. It was wayyyyyy off untill right before the storm started. The NAM and CMC led the way with it. I dont remember much about the January storm though so you might be right there.
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Yeah, that event looked at best marginal until two or so days before when the CMC blew the doors off and the NAM followed.
 
Listen to the seasoned individuals on Here. This is a great pattern we are about to get in. I’m excited and everyone else should be too. Not everyone will score most likely, but someone will and it could be big. Patience everyone.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, that event looked at best marginal until two or so days before when the CMC blew the doors off and the NAM followed.
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Ohh yes my favorite storm system... many models around 5 daya had marginal amounts and varying locations around 5 daya out many models held serve all the way right up to event but around day 3 NAM and CMC really started sniffing out totals and area of impact must metreologist blew off but we all shouldve known something was up when it was overproducing models all the way back to texas.... my county was right in crosshairs with about 12inches
 
Rain Cold said:
I was just messing with you. The operational is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control). Then, the initial conditions are tweaked and that is re-run 25 times (I believe) for the GFS and 50 times for the Euro. As far as the operational goes, it’s honestly not worth putting much stock in after 5-7 days. The ensembles are more useful at determining general period of storm signals as well as the general nature of how the pattern may evolve.
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Thanks for the insight about the models and why not to trust them outside of 7+ days out
 
It’s the nam but it has trended way slower with the energy for the 20th. Which means more stream separation and more dig..

E076A0E2-5E54-4ACB-A1D9-1E32A9FA7D84.png
C9736E14-9455-4780-87F5-7E9C3D068459.png

Most models have the LP on TX OK border at this time
 
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