Stormlover
Member
Oh yes he does. He's a good meteorologist in Louisville.
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He is saying it goes off the charts negative. The only thing that does is the Control, the EPS mean is around -2. The Control is wildly inaccurate.
Its not complaining, just clarity.
Stormlover
Member
Really? Has this turned into crap like this now? I posted about weather. I hope some of this gets deleted. It has no place in here.
Actually on that map....the control goes off the chart...the mean, is not, but it's deeply negative.
Yeah, its still great no doubt. That said it would be the same as posting the QPF chart with precip behind the 0C line and saying its snow, when not noting that the QPF measured fell 6 hours before the temp reached 0C. We rail on JB, Cohen and Spann, so we need to point out this inaccurate statement.
Would a jet like that trump what’s going on at 500?
NWMSGuy
Member
Jessy89
Member
agreed, the met that said that was clearly wrong..I agree
Stormlover
Member
The center of the arctic high is going to really move fast.
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Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah definitely still an outlier. But interesting to see.
This is very similar to some of those snowier gefs members posted earlier.
End of run. Notice separation between the energy (red color between them) this is very different from OP models.
It is the nam at 84. But nam did ok at range with the recent ice event I think.
Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
Jessy89
Member
This is the first system around the 20th correct?
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Ridge is much taller on the last frame! That’ll get it in the right direction!
NCSNOW
Member
12z ukmet had seperation today as well. Not to this extent,but it was way more south than gfs twins
NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like it after looking at the time stamps.
Fountainguy97
Member
00z gfs better ridge and more separation through 60
Just was wondering. The 500mb flow doesn't look too suppressed or have such a steep gradient that it shears waves out. If anything most pieces are in line at that time frame for the goods
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The icon tried to clear the main system and get crazy with the trailing upper level energy
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looks like another new look on 00z gfs for weekend storm....
Looks like the wrap snow gets down into Arkansas. Looking similar to the euro.
NWMSGuy
Member
Is that more seperation happening at hour 90 compared to previous run?
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12z EURO.....00z NAM.....00z GFS.....
yes it is
Fountainguy97
Member
This energy won’t be moving into the US until Thursday afternoon. Plenty of time for shifts.
last 24 hours of GFS (5 runs worth) some pretty good changes. Now, I DO think most of us see all rain from weekend storm, BUT I am ok with that...I would like to see this get as strong as it can and help us for the next wave next week..... The other point is, and MANY have said this already today...and every day....the models are still ALL over the place...
Fountainguy97
Member
Watch gefs members tonight. If we have increasing members showing this trend it’s game on
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
interesting to see how much of a difference that makes in terms of temperature anomalies, warmer for next week with less interaction.
Storm5
Member
00z cmc is has completely flipped its look for middle to late next week . No shock there should be a fun run
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HP behind the first system on the 19th and 20th isn't as strong or as south driving as the last few runs on the 0z gfs
Storm5
Member
We would all roll the dice with this look next week
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Storm5
Member
00z cmc
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Well hello beautiful. I have missed you.
The GFS lol...couple days of runs where the HP on Sunday at 12z is consistently centered over eastern South Dakota, now the 0z run its 500 miles northeast in western Ontario. That why it not as cold Sunday/Monday down here. With that big of a shift, I would trust NOTHING the GFS shows.
It’s Insanity!! All hell is about to break loose! It’s sad that we have to one-up the next person with extreme dramatic tweets and hyperbolic descriptions of things. Why can’t it just be that the ensembles are showing a very cold and potentially stormy pattern setting up? In the end, that’s far more likely to turn out closer to reality than insanity and mayhem!!!11!1
Snowman63
Member
Not that it will matter much, but the 0Z NAM is much colder at hr 84 than the GFS at hr 84.