NWMSGuy
Member
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ATLwxfan
Member
00z cmc
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Would be nice to see that low in south Florida and get that snow to translate east. A little more cold press also. Long way to go.
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Jessy89
Member
Little winter mix upstate sc and mountains. Novelty event
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Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC gives Louisiana and Mississippi a nice hit
Yeah the high is way north, by the 06z it will be in the mid 50s here on Monday.
Started to put this in banter, but banter right now is nothing about this pattern so I am putting it here. I have tried to catch up on things today over the last few minutes and reading some of these posts just make me want to shake my head. I don't want to sound negative toward some people and I know this will, but for the love of God please just be patient. Just a few days ago, many folks were wondering if we would even get a pattern that would be supportive of any winter weather. Those I consider the most knowledgeable people on this board have never wavered in their belief that this period coming up would see an increase in our chances. They shared why they believed what they believed and detailed with evidence in their posts - even though many models did not necessarily support those thoughts. Now, those beliefs are seemingly coming to fruition and many are still whining about this or that. Please be patient and enjoy the ride, though at times it can be frustrating.
I love snow. I love the anticipation of the storm and when it comes to fruition. I am almost 50 years old though and I do not claim to know a lot about the weather. However, I do know this. We live in the south. Nothing is guaranteed, except heat and humidity in the summer. Snow is no guarantee, regardless of what models put out. How many remember Groundhogzilla - one of the biggest model busts of all time! I can recall more storms that I care to that provided nothing but disappointment. However, there have been a few storms which provided that thrill that many of us live for. And the hope for that thrill is what brings many of us to places like this to share.
Over the next several weeks we may be disappointed on more than one occasion. In fact, I may get shut out of anything which would be very frustrating. However, I am hoping that all of us get that storm we want. I am rooting for Phil in Florida to see something frozen fall and how incredible would it be for Larry in Savannah to score in back-to-back years. I am sorry for the rant, and do not want to offend anyone. To quote Red (Morgan Freeman) in The Shawshank Redemption "Hope is a dangerous thing." But in the same movie, Andy (Tim Robbins), says "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." Yes, hope can bring disappointment, which is scaring many of us. However, at this point, we have hope, which is a good thing. And it is what will bring us back year after year.
Good luck to all of you! I hope you all get your snow - and I hope I get mine as well!
I love snow. I love the anticipation of the storm and when it comes to fruition. I am almost 50 years old though and I do not claim to know a lot about the weather. However, I do know this. We live in the south. Nothing is guaranteed, except heat and humidity in the summer. Snow is no guarantee, regardless of what models put out. How many remember Groundhogzilla - one of the biggest model busts of all time! I can recall more storms that I care to that provided nothing but disappointment. However, there have been a few storms which provided that thrill that many of us live for. And the hope for that thrill is what brings many of us to places like this to share.
Over the next several weeks we may be disappointed on more than one occasion. In fact, I may get shut out of anything which would be very frustrating. However, I am hoping that all of us get that storm we want. I am rooting for Phil in Florida to see something frozen fall and how incredible would it be for Larry in Savannah to score in back-to-back years. I am sorry for the rant, and do not want to offend anyone. To quote Red (Morgan Freeman) in The Shawshank Redemption "Hope is a dangerous thing." But in the same movie, Andy (Tim Robbins), says "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." Yes, hope can bring disappointment, which is scaring many of us. However, at this point, we have hope, which is a good thing. And it is what will bring us back year after year.
Good luck to all of you! I hope you all get your snow - and I hope I get mine as well!
NCSNOW
Member
Ukie should be interesting in a bit for Sun. Interested in it at 84 and euro compared to nam. Gfs lost me, massive change snowballed rest of run
I will say a potential negative to the first system not phasing up will be the big cold push won't be as strong as well further south initially. There are soooooo many moving parts its going to be hard to hit the final outcome until a few days in....
Jessy89
Member
Fv3/euro are the models to go on I do believe
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Storm5
Member
Lol at the gfs 00z vs 18z
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The only complaint I have with Gfs so far is #whereistheHighPressures. We definitely need them further south like past runs.
Do you know why we are getting so many different solution every model run???Lol at the gfs 00z vs 18z
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I was trying to look and figure it out. But it gave me a headache. ??
??
Jessy89
Member
Do you know why we are getting so many different solution every model run???
I was trying to look and figure it out. But it gave me a headache.
Because the models have no clue at all
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naaaaaah that can't be real....lolLol at the gfs 00z vs 18z
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Hour 90 on FV3
honestly...there is sooooo much energy flying around its showing different looks because of it. buckle up! lolDo you know why we are getting so many different solution every model run???
I was trying to look and figure it out. But it gave me a headache. ??
I guess we going to have to thread the needle to start with.
Storm5
Member
It’s actually kinda funny getting different solutions every six hours
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LOL
Your right. If you don’t like what you see just wait 6 hours. Kinda like a reset button every run.
Fountainguy97
Member
UK holds with that suppressed look from 12z. Really no change.
Good grief look at that ridge on the west coast
Not sure yet Larry. 1st run kind of meh for cold. We shall see. On a good note, SOI nice negative and 30 day avg nearing 0. Good trends even when we see unfavorable MJO for a short time. Don’t think we see same outcome as last time.
Lol @ that Alaskan ridge to end the run 
Snowflowxxl
Member
FV3 is a swing and a miss for our weekend and 23rd storm. Not particularly close at all on either.
FV3 has rain all the way into southern Canada for the 23rd storm, and what looks to be thunderstorms down this way. It obviously is irrelevant at this point.
0z GEFS snowfall
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think we might have to let the 23rd-25th wave go, that time period had a shot but without the 20th cutter bombing or it being a ULL with a ridiculous high pressure diving in, it won't work. Hopefully that wave we were trying to root on bombs for us later.
Let’s hope these big rainers into the NE showing up on tonight’s runs are wrong or you can kiss that snowpack goodbye and it’s back to square one. There is most certainly a fly in the ointment. MJO?
The ensembles keep showing this but the both gfs model runs are not jiving with it to well right now. Hopefully the euro will look better. Of course the gfs will probably look totally different in the morning. Beginning to wonder if I buy all that cold it keeps teasing us with. We are seeing some crazy run to run differences for sure.
Yea having my doubts as well. I felt like we have took a step back during the last 24 hours.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
When is there ever not a fly in the ointment?
Snowflowxxl
Member
GEFS means has steadily gotten worse. My mean has gone down almost 5 inches in the last 24 hours. Pretty telling I would say.
GEFS still looks good. Toggling back through the last 7 days you can tell it really is delayed when trying to push that West Atlantic ridge offshore but it’s getting there. GFS must have a big time bias trying to speed the progression of these events up. With all of that said the major pattern change is still 200+ Hours out for many of us so I do remain extremely skeptical
Brent
Member
The 0z Euro is snowing here Saturday now
lmfao
Actually has some accumulations
lmfao
Actually has some accumulations