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Pattern Jammin' January

accu35 said:
gem_asnow_seus_40.png
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8 inches of snow for my back yard. If that happened I wouldn’t ask for another snow this winter


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I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
 
WxWatch said:
I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
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The gfs showed a minor event on the last run. Then suppressed it on this new run. The the players is on the board for something.


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WxWatch said:
I wouldn't get too excited about the 12z CMC. That run was the first run that it showed significant snow for that time frame. There needs to be other model support.
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The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Storm5 said:
The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Yeah decent signal in the ensembles for several days. Not a bad look at this lead.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_33.png
 
Storm5 said:
The gfs , FV3 and icon have all show a system during that period . There is ensemble support for a system of some sort during that period

Whatalife has been all over the 13-15th period . If there is a system for someone I’m naming it Reid


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Yep. Nice storm signal and it has some ensemble support.


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1300m said:
Don't think anyone can deny models are sniffing out Phase 8 MJO. @Webberweather53 and I both were saying 1/7 to 1/20 period back in late December I believe. Starting to see what we expected to see.
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Definitely. There are threats popping up all over the mid term now that we are headed in the right direction. With the massive swing up we are having in temps, maybe they are a precursor to a winter storm. It seems to do that sometimes. It's nice to see signals and it would be great to see 2 storms in a week too.
 
Jon said:
Day 15 two meter temperature anomalies are notoriously terrible. Gotta look big picture and focus on pattern evolution that will drive colder temperatures. These won’t verify if the 500mb pattern looks the way it does.


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Dont you use logic

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