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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
Too bad it’s the CMC . Just shows how wonky these changes are from run to run


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It seems to me this storm the CMC has will depend partly on what our system on the 20th does. The CMC did show a similar idea last night so at least it is consistent 2 runs in a row with this idea. I'd like to see the GFS come around though.
 
Woah woah pause, that system on the 17th might give me a shot at some snow showers, shows almost a dynamical cooling situation, temps go from the upper 40s then precip starts and then it’s in the 30s, this is depicted on the NAM 12km
 
Snow showers for Carolinas with fast moving clipper on 27th


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DixieBlizzard said:
Larry, aren't we cruising through 4 and 5 relatively quickly and at low amplitude? It seems we will be back to 7 by late next week, no?
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In about 10 days or so the MJO is projected to go past phase 5. The amplitude isn't as high as last time but it isn't low either. Yes it is more rapid move. It spent two weeks just in phase last time!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is there anything in particular you see in the models that makes you think the 25-27th is a period to watch ?
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I can tell you what I see. I see a clipper of some sort. Maybe if it was to dig a little it could interact with gulf moisture. That would be a good outcome for more people


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SoutheastRidge said:
Is there anything in particular you see in the models that makes you think the 25-27th is a period to watch ?
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The energy looks great for this at least on the last 2 GFS runs. We have a good wave coming down from Idaho and phasing a bit late, but if we get a more neutral tilt just a bit earlier, we could see something come out of it, assuming such feature keeps showing up.
gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png
 
Yuck at the long range GFS model.The EPO completely breaks down,tho it comes back towards the end of this run. The PNA become negative and there's no signs of west based Greenland blocking. This could be a response to the MJO being at phase 4-6,tho I'm not sure. Hopefully the GFS ensembles look a lot better than this crap.gfs_z500a_namer_44.png
 
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I think there might be a very tiny window from Jan 26-28th. For something but then that window closes fast


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JLL1973 said:
i have a feeling everyone got caught up in all the hype. including me
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There are multiple storms/potential storms still showing up on various models, just because there isn’t any bone shattering once in a generation cold snap or a big time snowstorm showing up doesn’t mean that there’s not an opportunity, and in regards to the GFS warming up at the end, it’ll change in the next few runs.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Yuck at the long range GFS model.The EPO completely breaks down,tho it comes back towards the end of this run. The PNA become negative and there's with no signs of west based Greenland blocking. This could be a response to the MJO being at phase 4-6,tho I'm not sure. Hopefully the GFS ensembles look a lot better than this crap.View attachment 11361
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I seriously doubt the MJO is having that much influence considering it would be in the COD by then. I'm sure others can chime in on this as well.
 
GaWx said:
The faint hearted shouldn't look at the last few days of the 12Z GFS.
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Nothing more Ga. winter than cold chasing rain...unless it's rain chasing cold. Or.....maybe cold with no rain....or, rain with no cold. That's pretty much a southern winter in a nut shell...except for the occasional meeting of the two which messes the averages all up, lol.
 
JLL1973 said:
i have a feeling everyone got caught up in all the hype. including me
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The pattern is (has) changed. It’s going to be cold to end January as we were mentioning the first week of January.

This pattern isn’t working out for snow in the SE likely due to the orientation of the ridging and no block or heigh to keep storms south. The systems are too progressive and can’t go neutral tilt.

Weeklies were off on the ridge, showing a stout +PNA for Jan 20-28, when in reality it’s off the coast which doesn’t allow the trough to be in a favorable position. In order to have storms in the SE in the CURRENT depicted pattern, we need blocking.

The hype was justified, but no one could have predicted the ridging hiccup. Still, -EPO means cold, and cutting storms mean a increase in snow pack for the east coast.

The models have not slowed down for the period near the turn of the month and February as a whole and hopefully we will see ensemble support for a system to end the month. If not, we are entering the most favorable month of Weak and moderate El Niño’s, with the classic stormy pattern on the LR. If we are snowless by Feb 15 I think the panic will be justified...but until then just sit tight.


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GaWx said:
In about 10 days or so the MJO is projected to go past phase 5. The amplitude isn't as high as last time but it isn't low either. Yes it is more rapid move. It spent two weeks just in phase last time!
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In 10 days on the GEFS it showed it almost in the COD. Which forecast was that for and does it show it in the COD by 1/27?
 
Jessy89 said:
We need a thread soon for February. I’m only speaking of January right now. Fab feb could be fun


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You said I think there might be a very tiny window from Jan 26-28th. For something but then that window closes fast
so you posted our window closes fast, but were only talking about the last 3 days of the month? yeah, right
 
Jessy89 said:
We need a thread soon for February. I’m only speaking of January right now. Fab feb could be fun


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Heck, late this month could be fun. Don't jump the "gun" so fast. Just because you don't see snow for your area on the models anytime soon, that doesn't mean squat. There could be a winter storm showing up anytime - who knows.
 
Stormlover said:
You said I think there might be a very tiny window from Jan 26-28th. For something but then that window closes fast
so you posted our window closes fast, but were only talking about the last 3 days of the month? yeah, right
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I wasn’t speaking of February. Can’t see enough of February yet to tell. But the 26-28th there energy around looks like a clipper I’m very curious to see what can happen with that piece of energy can it tap the gulf?


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Jessy89 said:
I wasn’t speaking of February. Can’t see enough of February yet to tell. But the 26-28th there energy around looks like a clipper I’m very curious to see what can happen with that piece of energy can it tap the gulf?


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So your post about the window closing only referred to 3 days(after Jan 28, since it didn't include Feb. Good grief. A post about the window closing for 3 days(not that it is anyway). LOLLOLOLOLOLOL
 
Jon said:
The pattern is (has) changed. It’s going to be cold to end January as we were mentioning the first week of January.

This pattern isn’t working out for snow in the SE likely due to the orientation of the ridging and no block or heigh to keep storms south. The systems are too progressive and can’t go neutral tilt.

Weeklies were off on the ridge, showing a stout +PNA for Jan 20-28, when in reality it’s off the coast which doesn’t allow the trough to be in a favorable position. In order to have storms in the SE in the CURRENT depicted pattern, we need blocking.

The hype was justified, but no one could have predicted the ridging hiccup. Still, -EPO means cold, and cutting storms mean a increase in snow pack for the east coast.

The models have not slowed down for the period near the turn of the month and February as a whole and hopefully we will see ensemble support for a system to end the month. If not, we are entering the most favorable month of Weak and moderate El Niño’s, with the classic stormy pattern on the LR. If we are snowless by Feb 15 I think the panic will be justified...but until then just sit tight.


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The ridging shifting to the Aleutian’s has been shown and supported by MJO. All anyone saw was the PV dropping into the lakes. The PV will drop down, only took 17 cutters to yank it down. Question is how much lag will phase 5-6 have on the pattern as we start Feb. The end of the GEFS is already showing the trough pulling back west, which makes sense. I personally think it will be closer to 2nd week of Feb until we get into a legit favored pattern.

Only speaking for NC, Al/TX may do well with what is coming up.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, it keeps getting pushed further down the road, but at least the GEFS is still showing snow by the end of the month, and the ops continue to show rain for NC.

View attachment 11332
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Just to add to everyone else's response and what I mentioned a day or so ago and to remain as blunt as possible, the pattern change and associated storms haven't gotten pushed back, the pattern looks favorable-very favorable a classic southern slider after January 26th & going into early February, if that time frame gets pushed back in time I'll let you know.
 
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