• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Rain Cold said:
Since there's nothing really exciting showing up yet, the 10 day Euro isn't really all that far away from a very big dog for parts of the SE and inland up the coast. There are 3 pieces of energy (red Xs) that 1) If they are real, 2) Aren't modeled correctly in terms of their positioning (and they likely are not), and 3) Interact in the right way, could give you a big Gulf Miller A that strengthens rapidly and moves up the coast. The general area I would favor heavy snow would be within the red dashed line area. Of course, the next run will look totally different. But it shows you how the pattern can produce for some areas. Energy and cold, guys. If you got both of those, you're at least in the game. At D10, this really isn't that far away at all from showing something big:

View attachment 11383
Click to expand...
You know “The Negatives” isn’t going to approve this post. I fear for you now.
 
84efefe9e982698c87813441bc9c1a53.jpg


That clipper in Tennessee. That is something to track right there. It could surely tap the gulf if it was to dig just right. Or maybe it develops another low in the gulf. But the possibilities are there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Guys I really think some area of the southeast will get a nice snowstorm before the month is up. But we can all see the wild swings in the models. So it’s any mine guess right now. Just because the models isn’t show snow in your mby, you don’t have to be so negative.
 
Well front running rains , snow to the West of the Apps up to the NE. Then dry cold air . Sounds about like every winter here NC. Pattern may change to get the winter going but boy the hype is in over drive heading into warp speed with this coming change and it’s no different than most winters .
 
Sit tight. We have a very nice pattern setting up. Relax. Still have plenty of time for this to change and besides that, this pattern will give us at least 2 or 3 more chances into early Feb.
 
IMO, I think TN, MS, and parts of Alabama get a big hit first on the board. Then, after everything begins to flatten out, GA, SC, and NC get hit, possibly with a Miller A storm. It's obvious with the storm tracks on most models right now that the track favors more of the Western areas of the South, at least at the beginning of the pattern shift.

I mean, even I am guilty of being a tad frustrated that the models aren't showing fantasy storm after fantasy storm. Sure, we would all love to see it every run. But I don't think it matters right now to much. It's the 16th, and I really think this time next week, Southernwx will be exploding with excitement with what lurks.

From the beginning of the Winter, we have been saying this will be a backloaded Winter. It certainly is shaping up that way. In 2010, I remember thinking the same at around this time in January, that Winter was going to be a dud, but then we got the beauty in February in what was probably one of the best storm tracks for Central SC that you can ask for.

I think we have something special lurking, I hope we all end up happy.
 
Jessy89 said:
Yes pretty much based on that one op run
A week and a half ago the gfs also showed Nashville torching this week in the 50s and 60s all week long. Reality was we didn’t get out of the 30s the last 2 days and will be near to a little above the rest of the week except for Saturday. Temps then come crashing down Saturday night with possible snow into Sunday morning. A far cry from what it showed not far back. You absolutely can not take as gospel what it’s showing two weeks from now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
if we’re going to look at ensembles until the end of the run let’s take a look at the last frame of the GEFS right at the beginning of February. Yes this may look good on paper I know. Western ridge begins to retrograde which IMO screams for yet another trough to set up along the west coast with ridging back into the eastern US (mainly southeastern as I think the northeast will stay in the ice box for the foreseeable future) Greenland block (if it happens as depicted) may save us for a period but once that’s gone it’s a wrap. That’s my takeE851D7C5-2A2E-4674-B50F-7157222856FB.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
if we’re going to look at ensembles until the end of the run let’s take a look at the last frame of the GEFS right at the beginning of February. Yes this may look good on paper I know. Western ridge begins to retrograde which IMO screams for yet another trough to set up along the west coast with ridging back into the eastern US (mainly southeastern as I think the northeast will stay in the ice box for the foreseeable future) Greenland block (if it happens as depicted) may save us for a period but once that’s gone it’s a wrap. That’s my takeView attachment 11395
Click to expand...

Retrogression of the Alaskan ridge into NE Siberia does not favor a trough developing over the Rockies or west coast nor does it favor a ridge over the E US...

WPO Index DJF z500 Correlation NCEP:NCAR.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Retrogression of the Alaskan ridge into NE Siberia does not favor a trough developing over the Rockies or west coast nor does it favor a ridge over the E US...

View attachment 11396
Click to expand...
Coupled with lower heights over Greenland? I guess my argument is solely based off the fact that the -NAO never materializes
 
Webberweather53 said:
Retrogression of the Alaskan ridge into NE Siberia does not favor a trough developing over the Rockies or west coast nor does it favor a ridge over the E US...

View attachment 11396
Click to expand...

Yeah, but doesn’t mean cold southeast, which I know you didn’t say. We get the WP to build poleward them maybe. But where’s the dang Npac low. Sucks having to look at Npac ridge in late Jan where we should be looking at Npac low.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Coupled with lower heights over Greenland? I guess my argument is solely based off the fact that the -NAO never materializes
Click to expand...

The NAO has no correlation with the WP pattern as you can see from my response, my argument is based on the WP teleconnection which is what this pattern is going to look like in later frames of the ensemble suites and that's still a cold pattern w/ a big vortex sitting at the base of the Hudson Bay and Lakes.
 
Last edited:
Kylo said:
Yeah, but doesn’t mean cold southeast, which I know you didn’t say. We get the WP to build poleward them maybe. But where’s the dang Npac low. Sucks having to look at Npac ridge in late Jan where we should be looking at Npac low.
Click to expand...

Ok and? What I actually did essentially say is the retrogression of said ridge from Alaska to NE Siberia does not really change the placement of the SE Canada vortex which is what was trying to be claimed here, it doesn't always mean cold SE US but it probably will be here once the Maritime Continent forcing goes away.

Why are you so worried about not having a NP low? You do in fact realize that the NP ridge is sending the coldest air in the entire hemisphere to our side of the world or that it's setting up the classic look we've seen time & time again during a southern slider/overrunning event? Sigh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok and? What I actually did essentially say is the retrogression of said ridge from Alaska to NE Siberia does not really change the placement of the SE Canada vortex which is what was trying to be claimed here, it doesn't always mean cold SE US but it probably will be here once the Maritime Continent forcing goes away.

Why are you so worried about not having a NP low? You do in fact realize that the NP ridge is sending the coldest air in the entire hemisphere to our side of the world or that it's setting up the classic look we've seen time & time again during a southern slider/overrunning event? Sigh.
Click to expand...
No need to sigh. I don't think he was challenging you. It's a good teaching moment if someone doesn't understand something correctly.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok and? What I actually did essentially say is the retrogression of said ridge from Alaska to NE Siberia does not really change the placement of the SE Canada vortex which is what was trying to be claimed here, it doesn't always mean cold SE US but it probably will be here once the Maritime Continent forcing goes away.

Why are you so worried about not having a NP low? You do in fact realize that the NP ridge is sending the coldest air in the entire hemisphere to our side of the world or that it's setting up the classic look we've seen time & time again during a southern slider/overrunning event? Sigh.
Click to expand...

Yes I know that. But that patten is not what I consider textbook snow pattern for NC...but my opinion means little though :)

But, hey if this is the expected pattern to deliver then sounds great to me.
 
Kylo said:
Yes I know that. But that patten is not what I consider textbook snow pattern for NC...but my opinion means little though :)

But, hey if this is the expected pattern to deliver then sounds great to me.
Click to expand...

If you read what I said yesterday and the days prior I've clearly shown it's actually a textbook one for a "southern slider/overrunning event" but apparently that's falling on deaf ears.
 
whatalife said:
45d05daa4674559dae29571518caaf61.jpg
5e8cbea596268aa7877f5b9870f5a0f8.jpg
0b430df6495b766d8c6ade9f9fc95413.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The EPS looked the best of the three ensembles.Has a -NAO, Higher Heights on the West coast (tho I would like to see the ridge a bit further east)and plenty of cold air just to the north.Good to see the EPS still showing a good pattern,tho I'm skeptical.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, y’all two bring some good points in here and normally agree with each other, I learn lots from the both of y’all, we all have are days tho, like what whatalife said a break might be needed if you agree, no disrespect at all
Edit* Congrats on making it on the Washington post @webberweather
 
Last edited:
whatalife said:
I mean no disrespect and if your patience is wearing thin then take a break from the forum. As always...Thanks for all that you bring to the forum!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Why should he take a break from the boards? Maybe some of the posters looking for any and every negative with nothing to back up their "fears" should take a break or hang out in RainCold's new complaining thread. He has explained this multiple times and it does get on your nerves when people forget or don't bother to read what you have posted over and over again. The negative nervous nellies here take turns panicking over every single OP run when it it totally unnecessary. Breathe a little people, these people like Eric, 1300m, Delta and several others are trying to educate you, so read more and post less. This is one of the key reasons I don't post much anymore, it is like trying to mollify 3 year olds sometimes who want to know where their dolly is. Model runs are computer simulations of what data is fed into them, not a forecast, merely guidance for professional forecasters to decipher. Meaning no disrespect of course
 
MichaelJ said:
Why should he take a break from the boards? Maybe some of the posters looking for any and every negative with nothing to back up their "fears" should take a break or hang out in RainCold's new complaining thread. He has explained this multiple times and it does get on your nerves when people forget or don't bother to read what you have posted over and over again. The negative nervous nellies here take turns panicking over every single OP run when it it totally unnecessary. Breathe a little people, these people like Eric, 1300m, Delta and several others are trying to educate you, so read more and post less. This is one of the key reasons I don't post much anymore, it is like trying to mollify 3 year olds sometimes who want to know where their dolly is. Model runs are computer simulations of what data is fed into them, not a forecast, merely guidance for professional forecasters to decipher. Meaning no disrespect of course
Click to expand...

He was the one that mentioned his patience was wearing thin. So I was only responding to that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
As people previously said the western section of southeast could see a storm. That be good for them folks. Consistency is there for those locations to see some flakes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
If you read what I said yesterday and the days prior I've clearly shown it's actually a textbook one for a "southern slider/overrunning event" but apparently that's falling on deaf ears.
Click to expand...
Timeframe to look for this? Last week of Jan? First week of Feb? Mid Feb?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top