Yep. Interestingly, the GEFS has done a little better with the New England low over the last 24 hours, but it too is steadily deepening it with each run.
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If only there really were to be a good moist WSW flow at H5 and an accompanying GOM surface low crossing central FL in mid Jan meeting up with a very cold high wedging SW pretty far down into the SE US, I know you know as much as anyone that not just I-20 but even Macon could possibly see something significant. Since that's almost what the 0Z Euro shows along with 0Z EPS support, I'd say game could even be on all the way down to you. Of course, the central FL low track on this run may turn out to be the furthest south of any run. Nobody knows. But I wouldn't bet on that just yet due to recent trends/supporting indices.
Edit: Looking at the closeup maps. I see a 1015-16 mb sfc low move E from the central Gulf to just N of Tampa and then to Cape Canaveral, a quite far south track. The Euro does give Macon 0.75" of QPF by the way, a nice healthy amount. It gets you down to 36-37 through most of the rain!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
So close for a good storm for the upper se. Great for TN though. There's definitely support from almost all the major models.
Jon
Member
I know it’s the last frame of the GEFS but good lord you got to love this.
And for bonus since I’m up, eps with a very strong ensemble run for the 13th and beyond. It’s on!
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And for bonus since I’m up, eps with a very strong ensemble run for the 13th and beyond. It’s on!
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whatalife
Moderator
All signs are starting to pt to some winter fun starting next weekend for some in the SE.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Per GFS, still a marginal chance at some slop for next weekend but not a whole lotta cold air to work with after that as most of the conus starts getting toasty.
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Be careful with that warm talk around here
Kylo
Member
Day 5-9 has trended colder on GEFS/EPS. Latest GEFS snow mean
Another good Uptick in snow mean.. Maybe just Maybe the Midlands of SC can score with this one.
packfan98
Moderator
Wow, what a great 6z GEFS run!
Edit: Someone post the individual members. E17 will make the SC folks lose their minds...
Edit: Someone post the individual members. E17 will make the SC folks lose their minds...
whatalife
Moderator
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packfan98
Moderator
What a turnaround from 4 days ago when most of us were thinking the pattern wouldn't turn favorable until the last week in January or the first of February. It's hard to believe that we are tracking an event that will happen PRIOR to Jan 15th! Looks to be heading towards a classic nino winter.
packfan98
Moderator
If everything is still on track for the 12z runs, its time to fire up a thread.
Can you pull this open for Columbia SC and post it please I’m anxious to see.
packfan98
Moderator
Whatalife posted it at the top of the page. It gives Columbia two feet.
That's a big uptick from prior GEFS runs, granted that e17 member had a lot to do with that!
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The ensembles members wasn’t posted.
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah. The only thing this tells me is that there is a nice storm signal and this could possibly trend better for a lot of people.
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Thanks y’all my phone wasn’t loading image.. but I imagine e17 is a lot of ICE/SLEET?