I remember when many here & even distinguished mets were worried about this period being blowtorch warm.
With the subtropical jet constantly undercutting said ridge over east-central Canada, it's hard to get seriously warm in the SE US for very long even when ridging is favored over east-central North America as a whole. The incessant subtropical & Pacific jet undercutting is one of the main reasons why the SE US remains at the very least mild or slightly below normal in El Nino winters even though most of the rest of the CONUS may be warm or very warm. This pattern for our upcoming storm with cP air masses coming out of central Canada congregating with frequent southern stream disturbances is the classic recipe for a winter storm in an El Nino winter. Particularly when the EPO tanks & cross-polar flow deposits Siberian air into the North American continent in concert with this active southern stream, areas along the I-20 corridor could more easily get involved, we may have to wait a little longer for this to happen.
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