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Pattern Jammin' January

accu35 said:
I'm not model humping OP runs lol, but the ENS are coming in better agreement for next week. Big or small or not at all, I'll take my chances
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Yea I would say someone in the western southeast has a 35-50 percent chance on the storm mid-week and about 50-60 percent chance on the storm at the end of the week.
 
deltadog03 said:
squashed by the northern branch....if that southern part is a little more neutral tilted, then the whole thing phases up and all hell breaks loose...lol
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Yea from what I have seen before. It kinda looked close to me and the potential was there. I know it will be different next run.
 
Remember that idiotic cold showing up on the Euro a couple of runs ago for 1/21 and hardly anyone was buying it? I mean it had Phil with only 31 F, Orlando with only 37, and SAV at only 28 at 1 PM! Really stupid stuff like that. Well, now it is gone. the King has come to his senses with Orlando at 51, Phil at 47, and SAV at 39. Still cold though.
 
Nice euro run for us in Tennessee on the Saturday into Sunday system. I’d be more then happy if this verified.

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Looking at the GFS past few runs it really looking like the energy is syarting to get its act together. It looks far more healthy and organized
 
Well, we are still seeing snow here on the GFS op. Nice to see it keep that look on the op, but then the GEFS mean goes down. Not sure where we go from here.
 
Next week is loaded with potential . Rest up boys and girls

The mid week system definitely favors areas in the western part of the southeast .

The late week potential IF the 500mb look is correct could potentially be a bigger threat to a larger area . But I’m sure we get a new look at H5 on the 12z runs today

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The FV3 seems to keep moving in the direction of a wintry threat around the 24th as well. It's inching closer at least.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, we are still seeing snow here on the GFS op. Nice to see it keep that look on the op, but then the GEFS mean goes down. Not sure where we go from here.
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You & me will have to sit tight. After middle next week storm passes the pattern is going to become Northern Stream Dominant. This will bode very well for the Mtns with up slope opportunities. We will need a synoptic event to get it done. The Good news is there is a lot of energy flying around watching op model runs, but there is no way they will be able to pinpoint a favorable solution for us this far out with any accuracy. We dont have to worry about Cold from Jan 25th ish onward, possibly through mid Feb into early March. So the hardest part of the equation (cold) will be taking care of. The ever allusive clippers we haven't seen all winter, will be the talk late Jan into early Feb. Hopefully we can get one to hook up with the southern stream if the STJ doesn't let us down. Hasnt all season knock on wood.

beggars cant be choosers. I'll take my chances all day long with the current LR pattern post jan 25. Never a guarantee, but we have pretty good odds with this one.
 
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