ATLwxfan
Member
For good reason. Mountains to the north and we don’t get the full benefit of the wedge. You need a perfect recipe for snow here and it ain’t easy to bake that cake.
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For good reason. Mountains to the north and we don’t get the full benefit of the wedge. You need a perfect recipe for snow here and it ain’t easy to bake that cake.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Mississippi tends to fair better for some reason. They may cash in here.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Yeah your right it just seems to be harder for us Alabama Georgia folks but hey anything is possible
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Euro says 2-4 west of 77 in NC
drfranklin
Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2016
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fantastic January day here - currently 68.8 with sunny skies/light winds/finally dry - never seen so many people walking in the neighborhood
packfan98
Moderator
Philstorm91
Member
Is Louisiana lumped in with Florida?
We do usually score whenever lower MS and AL do well.
I love it for this weekend’s prospects for sure. From a pure MJO point of view from my perspective, there’s no place I’d rather be for the SE as a whole (not talking MBY specifically), especially during El Niño and even moreso during Jan. The consensus of either a little outside phase 8 or on/inside left part of circle during just El Niño Jans going back to 1977 that I posted about recently to supplement the all ENSO analysis of Jans 1975-2014 that I put in the blog 2 years ago said this being the coldest MJO location for the SE on average has actually been most evident during El Niño.
I’ll probably post more about the history related to this for RDU and ATL later.
Edit: Combining this with -2 AO this Thu and +0.75 PNA this weekend and you have a great combo of these three indices!
Another edit: Looking further out in time, I love where the EPS is curling the MJO within the circle! So, also looking nice for late month from pure MJO perspective.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd love to see this fill in a bit in advance of our storm, absolutely abysmal snow cover in the east-central US right now
RollTide18
Member
Anything to watch for us in the Deep South?
NoSnowATL
Member
Stormlover
Member
Lol! That was the best troll map ever!
12z GEFS is slowly moving closer with the big change. Almost under ten days with the ridge going up out west.
Ilovesnow28
Member
What will it take for us deep South folks to score in January especially with everything lined up so far with the mjo going to phase 8 and soi tanking negative or do it really matter more for the upper south east folks
Kylo
Member
Allan says it best I think. Otherwise we need great timing like this potential day 6-7 threat.
Yet another top shelf day.
Currently 70*F.
Currently 70*F.
It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Who needs a sustained cold pattern? Seems like we get the big storm threats when we go from really warm like today to just cold enough a week later.
Kylo
Member
I wouldn’t prefer to have sustained cold so we don’t go 6 weeks between chances. But to each it’s own.