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Pattern Jammin' January

GaWx said:
It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
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Thanks I'm always learning something new here and I appreciate all the information being presented
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Does the south ever really get sustained cold ? Sustained cold to me would be weeks of highs in the 20s and 30s. I dont ever recall having sustained cold in GA.
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Just last year we had almost 2 weeks of highs below freezing and lows in the teens and lower. The one day that went above freezing hit 34 or 35 for an hour or so then back below. Lakes and streams were frozen solid and some could be walked on.

Edit: I just noticed you said Georgia.
 
The pattern in the long range keeps getting more weenie.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png
 
GaWx said:
It all matters in figuring the chances for the deep south, too, but there is of course always going to be a much lower chance there on average just due to being further south. I'll do a hypothetical to illustrate. Let's say all of the major indices are lined up like 7s on a slot machine for a 5 day period starting in about a week. Whereas the longterm average chance for any wintry precip during that 5 day period may at RDU be, say, 30%, say 10% at Tusc., and say 1% at SAV, it may be with all the 7s lined up, say, 75% at RDU, 30% at Tusc, and 4% at SAV. It may increase the chance more in relation to a location's normal further south but it would likely still be much higher further north...just not as steep a gradient,
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I get a better avg when I get a Beaumont to Sav storm and everyone gets rich, than waiting on a central Ga sleet storm. Those have been far apart this century, and back in the 90's. Come to think of it I haven't had either one in well over 20 years, not a good one. I'd like to see an 8 or 9 state duzy :)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Who needs a sustained cold pattern? Seems like we get the big storm threats when we go from really warm like today to just cold enough a week later.
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I'm often reminded when I get a deep snow that I'm only getting a small part of it. I lost most of it getting cold enough to accumulate because it's been so warm. Makes me appreciate what it takes to get a foot :)
 
Good run of gfs but temps remain marginal outside mountains. Probably mid 30s


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The end of the new 0Z EPS, aw of 1/21-22, is the best I can recall for any run ending this month with regard to the western ridge. Still not nearly as tall as the GEFS ridge then but an improvement for the EPS. Is this sign of a new trend? Finally?!?
 
GaWx said:
The end of the new 0Z EPS, aw of 1/21-22, is the best I can recall for any run ending this month with regard to the western ridge. Still not nearly as tall as the GEFS ridge then but an improvement for the EPS. Is this sign of a new trend? Finally?!?
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Should be a great run of the weeklies tonight, I hope.

Just to compare how the last Thursdays weeklies, which we all thought was great, are comparing. We are actually ahead of schedule.

14-km EPS 46-DAYS Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 456 (1).png14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 360 (3).png
 
Kylo said:
Should be a great run of the weeklies tonight, I hope.

Just to compare how the last Thursdays weeklies, which we all thought was great, are comparing. We are actually ahead of schedule.

View attachment 10169View attachment 10170
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Looking through the members, I would say the mean would look even better than that because a few skew it in the other direction. I would say ~75% have a strong western ridge. That mean does agree with the lack of an -NAO though.
 
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