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Pattern Jammin' January

Any chance we can get the live thread turned on? It looks like it is going to be busy here the next couple of weeks.
 
Good morning, Everyone!

A couple of housekeeping things to go over:

Let's please try to limit banter in the main thread. Things like, "That looks great", "Hope you get a boatload", "e18 please", or "Snow is fun" should probably be typed in the Banter thread. Things like, "#GFSfail", "Delayed but not denied", "Get your Apps rubbers ready", or "Snow sucks" should go in the Complaint thread. We will be moving these over, as appropriate today. Please don't take offense to it; just trying to keep this one clean.

Additionally, frustration has increased notably the past couple of weeks. Some people are frustrated by the lack of snow. Some are frustrated by those frustrated by the lack of snow. Some are frustrated at things that have nothing to do with snow whatsoever. Let's please try and watch our tone in our interactions. We may not often mean something demeaning or sarcastic or condescending when we make a post, but let's try to read how it sounds before hitting the post button. We all love the weather. Let's please try to remember that before we get irritated with and jab at each other.

Also, there are a goodly number of guests lurking. Please take a moment and sign up. It's a great community and the sign-up is painless and easy!

Lastly, regarding the actual weather, the kind of pattern coming up over the next couple of weeks will be very conducive to storms popping up on relatively short notice. Try not to get too discouraged if every Op run doesn't show snow. My guess is that we will start seeing more and more threats pop up, along with some pretty snow maps.

Thanks for your help with all of this. I hope you all have a great day.
 
Arcc said:
That look on the Euro is beautiful. That is how you get a long term event such as December 2017.
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Not sure which time frame you're talking about, but if we look at 240, we are not far off from a big time SE winter storm. There is already a surface reflection in the Gulf, west of FL. The correct interaction of shortwaves in the southern and northern branches would create a big Miller A storm. The 850s look cold and are pressing southeast. The GFS had a similar look yesterday.

Obviously, the specifics of a 10 day map are irrelevant. But the takeaway is that the pieces will probably be around during that general time frame for a big Gulf storm. Will it come together? Who knows. But this is why we should not toss things away out of hand, just because no model is depicting a major winter storm. The red flag here is that there is no high pressure, feeding cold into the storm. But that could also change. Anyway, I'm definitely intrigued by this period.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Not sure which time frame you're talking about, but if we look at 240, we are not far off from a big time SE winter storm. There is already a surface reflection in the Gulf, west of FL. The correct interaction of shortwaves in the southern and northern branches would create a big Miller A storm. The 850s look cold and are pressing southeast. The GFS had a similar look yesterday.

Obviously, the specifics of a 10 day map are irrelevant. But the takeaway is that the pieces will probably be around during that general time frame for a big Gulf storm. Will it come together? Who knows. But this is why we should not toss things away out of hand, just because no model is depicting a major winter storm. The red flag here is that there is no high pressure, feeding cold into the storm. But that could also change. Anyway, I'm definitely intrigued by this period.

View attachment 11517

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hey RC is it possible to score with a lakes low if enough cold air is already in place? Or is it virtually impossible? I feel like I already know the answer to this question
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Caution for the mid-week system (for those mostly around Atlanta) with a backside change-over to snow...most of the soundings even in the pretty color shaded areas around Dekalb & Fulton counties, show just rain or sleet. 2m temps support this also, so again, temper your expectations.
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Good point though it’s still pretty far out and we’ve seen plenty of scenarios where the temp profiles improve and likewise plenty of scenarios when they don’t.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
hey RC is it possible to score with a lakes low if enough cold air is already in place? Or is it virtually impossible? I feel like I already know the answer to this question
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Yes. We’ve had a couple of events in the past few years, with a GLL. It’s overated, and usually the least of our concerns
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
hey RC is it possible to score with a lakes low if enough cold air is already in place? Or is it virtually impossible? I feel like I already know the answer to this question
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Yeah, what Mack said. It depends on how strong it is and where it is in relation to where a southern storm might form and track. The antecedent air mass also matters. The long and short of it is, there's not really a hard and fast rule, as things can work out or not work out either way. My personal preference is that it is not there and instead, we have high pressure building in. But it's not a death sentence by any means.
 
Rain Cold said:
Not sure which time frame you're talking about, but if we look at 240, we are not far off from a big time SE winter storm. There is already a surface reflection in the Gulf, west of FL. The correct interaction of shortwaves in the southern and northern branches would create a big Miller A storm. The 850s look cold and are pressing southeast. The GFS had a similar look yesterday.

Obviously, the specifics of a 10 day map are irrelevant. But the takeaway is that the pieces will probably be around during that general time frame for a big Gulf storm. Will it come together? Who knows. But this is why we should not toss things away out of hand, just because no model is depicting a major winter storm. The red flag here is that there is no high pressure, feeding cold into the storm. But that could also change. Anyway, I'm definitely intrigued by this period.

View attachment 11517

View attachment 11518
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Even without the gulf low, that is close to a big overrunning event. I like either one, but I'll take both together please.
 
WxWatch said:
There won't be much in the way with snowfall amounts with that. Maybe up to 1" for some. That's basically cold chasing moisture. Cold chasing moisture is, "meh."
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This is true most of the time, and probably will be in this case, but I do think with the PV hanging out it is possible over the next couple of weeks for a wave along an arctic front to produce for some. It hasn't happened in a while, but historically, at least for the mid-south, there are several examples of significant snows/ice with a major arctic frontal passage. For Nashville:
Jan 8 1886
Jan 21 1935
Jan 23 1963
Jan 28 1951
Feb 9 1994
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, what Mack said. It depends on how strong it is and where it is in relation to where a southern storm might form and track. The antecedent air mass also matters. The long and short of it is, there's not really a hard and fast rule, as things can work out or not work out either way. My personal preference is that it is not there and instead, we have high pressure building in. But it's not a death sentence by any means.
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Any years with a 6”+ event for unflavored areas with a lakes low in place? You don’t have to research it but does anything come to mind off the top of your head?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
hey RC is it possible to score with a lakes low if enough cold air is already in place? Or is it virtually impossible? I feel like I already know the answer to this question
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RC answered well, but I'll add this. A weak low over the GL in winter typically means you have a big time ULL there which itself provides suppression and of course cold air with the northern stream pushing down. I looked back earlier this winter and there are several big events that had the low there including the crushing snow in December 2017. So it may be better to have a surface high for y'all because y'all have a much better chance with CAD, but for everyone else it may actually help with the GL there.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Any years with a 6”+ event for unflavored areas with a lakes low in place? You don’t have to research it but does anything come to mind off the top of your head?
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I'm going to punt the rest of winter that question over to Webb or 1300m, as they will be far more likely to have the answer, since they've done a lot of research around past winter storms. It seems like the January 2000 storm had a low there, but I don't know for sure.
 
For people like me that are on Flizzard Watch 2019, the NAM continues to spit out snow showers across Alabama.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm going to punt the rest of winter that question over to Webb or 1300m, as they will be far more likely to have the answer, since they've done a lot of research around past winter storms. It seems like the January 2000 storm had a low there, but I don't know for sure.
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Yeah we typically see those in northern stream-driven systems where the cold is being direct-deposited at all levels by a deep, full-latitude trough. The funny thing is these are typically the no-doubter ptype events where it's either rain or snow with better ratios.

012015.png


accum.20090120.gif


012509.png


accum.20000125.gif
 
1300m said:
Yeah we typically see those in northern stream-driven systems where the cold is being direct-deposited at all levels by a deep, full-latitude trough. The funny thing is these are typically the no-doubter ptype events where it's either rain or snow with better ratios.

012015.png


accum.20090120.gif


012509.png


accum.20000125.gif
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That is awesome info. Thanks for weighing in on it!
 
Well the 12z GFS is off and running so far similar to past few runs perhaps energy is slightly south and east of previous few runs for Weekend
 
The Energy for Mid-Week system is a good bit south and west of previous runs in past few days at 102

gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
1300m said:
Yeah we typically see those in northern stream-driven systems where the cold is being direct-deposited at all levels by a deep, full-latitude trough. The funny thing is these are typically the no-doubter ptype events where it's either rain or snow with better ratios.

012015.png


accum.20090120.gif


012509.png


accum.20000125.gif
Click to expand...

Then that just about does it.
 

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Day 6-7 should be interesting on the CMC when it shows up at TT. There's a LP along the GOM/LA on the old black and white maps on day 6. Usual caveats apply; just keeping hope alive. ;)
 
NWS MEG forecasting 1-2" snow in my neck of the woods Saturday night. Another FB wx page, "west Tennessee weather online" - a local guy who provides a really good service for our area, has us for 2-3". Folks over this way don't need to sleep on this one yet.
 
Only way for a miller A type track. We need a high pressure to push it down keep it from cutting.


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Maybe it’s vort hallucinations but this little piece of energy breaking off in the Pacific could have big implications down the road 81A55100-F62F-4CEB-84D0-1FD6E092CCDF.jpeg
 
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