• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin' January

Snowflowxxl said:
Just a reminder that the FV3 maps on TT are inaccurate. The coding or something is messed up, so the totals are not accurate.
Click to expand...
Disclaimers on half the models sometimes it is true not 100% accurate plus have to wait for Freezing rain etc output on Pivotal which takes forever
 
The question to be asked for FV-GFS between hours 144 and 162 hours what other elements are need to beef up this storm the cold being in place by another 12-24 hours for MS/AL/GA would be really nice
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Delta actually said last night that if the southern part was more neutral tilted (with the 0z FV3) that there is phase potential with it. And maybe I'm hallucinating but this looks like a late phase to me:

View attachment 11538
Click to expand...
If it does phase, it would phase further north and east, well away from the southeastern US. A strong low off to the north and east would reinforce the cold air though.
 
12z FV3 does have a little bit more separation, it still turns out to be a frontal system though.
e594dc543cc4adf71ca1d573c1e83e30.jpg
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems like it is continuing to decrease for NC. The ensembles were about the only thing giving NC peeps hope for anymore snow before the end of the month. The ops continue to be even less hopeful.
Click to expand...

the pattern that's showing for the next 7-10 days favors areas west of the mountains. that does NOT mean a system cant work out for your area though in that timeframe .
 
Storm5 said:
I’d much rather have a solution like the 12z gfs is showing with a weaker northern stream press vs the bone chilling over crushing runs like the last few cycles had


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Absolutely. However the 552dm height is still over central AL which is perfect.
 
Storm5 said:
the pattern that's showing for the next 7-10 days favors areas west of the mountains. that does NOT mean a system cant work out for your area though in that timeframe .
Click to expand...

I know. We'll see. Just saying right now it does not look good, even less so today than yesterday for a storm here before the end of the month. Time is running out for us here for January. But if we don't get anything else this month, hopefully it will set the stage for February.
 
I'll wait for pivotal to post the map but based off the COD website, that 23rd/24th event has real legs instead of just a stupid map. Looks like some areas in the best part of the band gets 4" and the highest total I saw was 4.7".
 
malak05 said:
The question to be asked for FV-GFS between hours 144 and 162 hours what other elements are need to beef up this storm the cold being in place by another 12-24 hours for MS/AL/GA would be really nice
Click to expand...
The cold isn't in place further east due to the boundary. For area's further east to receive frozen precip. is 1) The boundary needs to be in place further south and east. Or, 2) The system needs to separate from the trailing energy to allow a 2nd separate system which would possibly bring a wider coverage of frozen precip.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems like it is continuing to decrease for NC. The ensembles were about the only thing giving NC peeps hope for anymore snow before the end of the month. The ops continue to be even less hopeful.
Click to expand...
What specifically about the modeled 500mb pattern has evolved in such a manner for you to draw this conclusion? Because I think the pattern is ripe from 1/26 onward for anywhere in the southeast to score based on the current ensemble 500mb means.
 
Smarter minds can tell me if this is right but the midweek storm seems to be trending further south if this trend continues parts of GA could be in play
 
As much as it pains me to say this right now, GEFS is still holding strong with its look at 500. WAR being pushed off shore inside of 200hr now and looks pretty good until the end of the run. Still no big heights over Greenland which really isn’t a surprise
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Smarter minds can tell me if this is right but the midweek storm seems to be trending further south if this trend continues parts of GA could be in play
Click to expand...
That's right, a much larger portion of GA and the southeast could be at play. The main low cuts, but we're going to have to watch the energy that is tailing the trailing energy. For now, it's a frontal system that would bring some snow for western parts of the southeast, of course things will change.
 
DarkKnight said:
Yes. We are getting close to being in that range with the gfs twins.
Click to expand...

Yeah with the scores the FV3 have had within 5 days, if I were in Alabama and parts of Tennessee I'd be really excited by what it's showing if we were at 5 days out. As if it holds it's a nice snow.
 
If the CFS is right, we have atleast five weeks of this place becoming this. Good luck Shawn and mods.
 

Attachments

  • 180px-Superweenie.jpg
    180px-Superweenie.jpg
    119.2 KB · Views: 65

Attachments

  • cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_2.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_2.png
    261.8 KB · Views: 43
  • cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_3.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_3.png
    255.6 KB · Views: 44
  • cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png
    250.3 KB · Views: 42
  • cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png
    248.8 KB · Views: 41
  • cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png
    cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png
    247.6 KB · Views: 41
1300m said:
What specifically about the modeled 500mb pattern has evolved in such a manner for you to draw this conclusion? Because I think the pattern is ripe from 1/26 onward for anywhere in the southeast to score based on the current ensemble 500mb means.
Click to expand...

Just looking at the totals for the GEFS mean, and it looks to have decreased for NC.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Just looking at the totals for the GEFS mean, and it looks to have decreased for NC.
Click to expand...
It's just noise beyond D10. The pattern still looks very favorable. Even the op run of the GFS and FV3 had loads of potential (again, too far out but they look similar to the ensembles so you can draw some conclusions from that at least).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top