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tennessee storm
Member
Getting less than last nites run for sure general one inch along i40 west. Middle tn
JLL1973
Member
Hard to bet against the ecmwf.
Neither. The difference is the NS. That won't be resolved for days.
Euro just crapped on everybodys mid week cutter so I guess nobody wants to talk about the potential here?
Storm5
Member
do you see how much the euro and gfs are flipping from run to run ? this look will 100 percent be gone next run
I hope so because it still needs some work. Encouraging nonetheless
Jessy89
Member
There’s potential sure. But hard to be excited when you don’t have a big high pressure just north of it. To lock in cold and keep it from cutting.
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Storm5
Member
why is everyone acting like the cutter mid week is new? its not been there for days
NCSNOW
Member
Hammering fatties in Boone. Least over an inch now, roads whitened up. Wasnt even in forecast last night.
Round Oak Weather
Member
I think a lot of people are in a good position with the trends over the past few runs
Sometimes I wish I still lived up there...
I'm educatedly guessing that the projected trip of the MJO through moderate phases 4-5 is a net negative factor for the next 8 days or so though there are as always other factors to consider. Any other opinions about the MJO?
Down the road, the MJO should become a favorable factor, itself.
If I'm not mistaken, phases 4-5 are somewhat correlated to a SE ridge.
Down the road, the MJO should become a favorable factor, itself.
If I'm not mistaken, phases 4-5 are somewhat correlated to a SE ridge.
Flurry
Member
I wouldn't put much into any of the models right now...None of them are able to pick-up on anything consistent....You really can't get a good forecast past 3 days
Sleet in Spartanburg
snowlover91
Member
FV3 is my model of choice. Look at how it has done for our system on the 20th. This is 168 hours out and the FV3 is locked in on a northern route track into WV.
Compare this with the 12z FV3 run only 60 hours out.
Meanwhile the Euro from the same 00z Sunday run has it too far south and slow.
IMO the performance of the FV3 7 days out to nail the LP track is incredibly impressive. It has also done this with both winter storms I've tracked for the NC area so far, picking up on the LP track and locking in before any other models do. It's the model of choice 7 days and under for me.
Compare this with the 12z FV3 run only 60 hours out.
Meanwhile the Euro from the same 00z Sunday run has it too far south and slow.
IMO the performance of the FV3 7 days out to nail the LP track is incredibly impressive. It has also done this with both winter storms I've tracked for the NC area so far, picking up on the LP track and locking in before any other models do. It's the model of choice 7 days and under for me.
Storm5
Member
Maybe so but there is no SER showing on any guidance currently
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I agree with you. I think it will end up being a net negative until the SSW event's effects are more fully realized. I imagine if that aspect is real, the SSW, (and what I mean is that if it will end up influencing the pattern favorably), the models will have a difficult time resolving that dynamic, which would lead to quite a bit of variability in the LR.
The bottom line is this: If you believe that this winter has a high probability of being back-loaded from a cold and wintry weather standpoint, and you believe that the SSW event will positively influence the pattern, then pretty soon, the models will quit taking away the blocking in the LR and start to lock in a cold look, at least for a period. Even the ensembles are bouncing around with the blocking.
I think the MJO will be a factor until that signal is overwhelmed by something else, which all seems to start converging in 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, it's amplitude doesn't seem to be as high as it could be.
If we get to Feb 1, and we're still seeing just transient cold shots as far as the eye can see, I think we will have a pretty good handle on how the winter of 2018-2019 will go down.
Storm5
Member
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS looks considerably different overall thru day 10 than this morning's 0z suite, would personally like to see the Rockies ridge build & retrograde faster towards Alaska than it did this run, still a long ways to go.
NCSNOW
Member
I could live with this:
Storm5
Member
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While that is a good look, the complete continual whiff at the -AO is interesting.
Storm5
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, we're progressively losing the -AO with each successive run of the EPS. Heights are falling as verification approaches in the Pacific-Arctic.
packfan98
Moderator
For those of us who like the pretty clown maps, this run of the EPS looks better than any I've seen recently. Because it has over 50 members, it's difficult to get a large snow mean to show without there being a reasonable amount of support from multiple members. This is a significant increase over 0z and yesterday's 12z run. I will check a few of the city meteograms shortly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No matter what period you choose, the vortex on the Pacific side of the arctic has been progressively intensifying on the Euro ensemble of late contributing to the increasingly positive AO as verification closes in. This is not a trend I want to see continue.
I like that
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Don’t want to see that either but could that also be a wash since we don’t want overpowering cold press with a full arctic dump?
I wonder if the EPS has an inherent -AO bias like the GEFS appears to have had per watching it over the years (day 14 GEFS had averaged near -0.5 AO bias last few months). Do you know? Or is this just a relatively rare exception for the EPS?
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Usually not good.
A -AO has a pretty strong correlation to SE cold as does the +PNA, -NAO, and to a lesser extent the -EPO.
That could allow the NS not to be to strong which could cause of storms not to be too suppress or strung out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one obvious caveat I forgot to mention here though is while this probably hurts us in the short term, if the cyclonic wave break over the Aleutians is in the right place and orientation it can amplify the ridge over the Rockies and eventually lend itself to a bigger block that eventually moves up towards Alaska thereafter but this is somewhat speculative on my part and if it came to fruition it would be right at the very end of January or early February
Would ridging over the Rockies with such an orientation give a favorable pattern to all of the deep South with a -EPO?
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Here comes 18Z gfs. Good luck all.
Stormlover
Member
Cold in place last week of the month
Storm5
Member
Gfs still trying to pop a wave along the front
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Hr 144 of 18z gfs looking good for Louisiana for now.
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Stormlover
Member
one station really has it showing up early sunday
