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Pattern Jammin' January

Now that’s a pattern change. GFS is extremely active. I did sat the active PAC will probably help more than hurt once the change is underway...

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Yes, that looks very active. A shot at a storm this weekend and then another one next Friday. Great to see all this potential showing up now.
 
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NC got hit 3 times on the O6z run of the GFS. Salt in the wound. I always felt like this might be a NC north winter with the STJ so juiced up but damn. We are going to need some major help this year
 
With a 1068 over Greenland and a 1062 north of Alaska and two 1055 highs dropping into the us? Absolutely crazy and unrealistic.

I'm glad we are continuing to see progress on all sides. First a smidgen of HLB on the ensembles, then more, then the OPs are showing decent HLB and now sometimes crazy HLB. Like I said as well, while it's crazy, you can see it start building in under ten days so now we are really getting somewhere.
 
Seems like MLK is the time we start getting good looks if the GEFS is right. Can't see the 15 on EPS, but 10 still sucks. Yeah, waiting really sucks. I feel it could be worth it though.

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The 12z GFS is meh. Not really a drastic pattern shift but more glancing shots of cooler weather along with warm ups and some rain. Canada nice and cold by late month.


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Crazy run of the GEFS. Deep crazy cold day 10+. The snow mean is nuts how far south it is.

Blocking everywhere, and yes, a nice split flow underneath the ridge while the PV visits east of Hudson Bay. I see snow in that picture. I'm starting to envision how wet it's been and switching out the rain with snow. Could that be what happens? Are the weeklies starting to come into the actual forecast? May need MLK to rest up.

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