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Pattern Jammin' January

accu35 said:
Lot will change, but this has potential written all over it to me
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Someone just said it was only for Mississippi, lol. Why do people post bogus model reviews?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Have you not seen how fraudulent the FV3 snow maps have been all year. I stand by my statement. Fv3 snow maps on TT are trash, like this pattern.
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In addition, the simulated radar for the FV3 didn't really show any substantial snow for anyone BUT MS. Maybe some snowflakes here and there for other areas
 
Gefs members are very happy indeed with next week system. Some of them decent hits
 
#8. 8 Days in a row Greensboro has been below normal. Wasnt for the next 40-48 hours no telling how long this record would stretch, easilly 20+ days.
Greensboro is also 150%+ above annual climo snowfall. Minus the 2 week torch from last week December and first 9 days of January. This truly has the potential to go down as a stellar top 10 winter if we can score a couple more marginal events.Had a -4 BN November and the potential to cash in a stellar last 6 weeks of winter. Of course there are no gurantees and it could go to the crapper next 6 weeks. But signals are strong things should unfold in a favorable way.
 
Jon said:
Linked the wrong maps sorry
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Thanks, Jon. My maps finally came in and days 16-25 are colder than the prior run, especially up in the Midwest but down here to a lesser extent. Coldest periods (absolute and anomaly) in the SE are days 11-25. Afterward, it still remains a colder than normal to the end though not as cold.
-NAO/-AO dominates but you can see the delay when comparing to the prior run. Each week had a change to lower heights in the Arctic from the prior run.
Precip near normal in SE.
 
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GaWx said:
Thanks, Jon. My maps finally came in and days 16-25 are colder than the prior run, especially up in the Midwest but down here to a lesser extent. Coldest periods (absolute and anomaly) in the SE are days 11-25. Afterward, it still remains a colder than normal to the end though not as cold.
-NAO/-AO dominates but you can see the delay when comparing to the prior run. Each week had a change to lower heights in the Arctic from the prior run.
Precip near normal in SE.
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WHERE YALL GETTING THE ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAPS? IM A SUBSCRIBER TO WEATHERMODELS BUT CANT SEEM TO LOCATE THEM
 
@psuhoffman
Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.
 
Better hope for the DGZ’s to moisten up, soundings say Dry dgz’s for south of Tennessee, but typically that happens then over time dgz’s moisten on short range models
 
The 762 hour Euro (Is this the control) mainly for entertainment and it is, indeed, very entertaining, issued today in tandem with the weeklies:

- 2/5-18: KATL's 850 sub 0C!
- 2/5: severe cold 850s -30C Chicago to Cinci & -20C at Rome, GA!
- 2/8: very weak Miller A with very far south track across S FL likely is winter storm for much of SE, including snow deep SE and IP/ZR possibly into far N FL including Phil's place
- 2/13: 2nd Gulf Miller A quite far south again that crosses central FL with CAD/snow and then CAD/ZR/IP further south and quite far south though probably not quite as far south. unlike the previous very far south southern slider, this one curls back up off the sE coast.
- 2/16: another Arctic blast -20C Chicago-Cinci at 850; -10 Rome, GA

Quite simply, this is the dream of dream runs for the SE US for 2/5-18. This would indeed be the fabbest of fab Febs if something close to this were to occur. I wonder if it could be like Feb of 1895, which gave ATL 3 different sig snowstorms and was very cold.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I bet the snow lovers in Reno just hate those mountains! LOL! Went to Tahoe once at the end of June and there were still piles of snow in the mountains and passes. Beautiful country.
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I bet it is. On the bucket list along with being in a LES , but id have to take up residency to catch one. You ever get bored google pics lake tahoe snows. Unbeleivable how much snow they get every winter. No wonder the donner party got stranded
 
0z looks like there's less cold press behind next week's system vs 18z. Also the low is further north and the HP behind it is slightly weaker.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
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