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Pattern Jammin' January

DarkKnight said:
I know this is the last frame of the gfs. But this is for educational purpose only.

This is the setup we need for most of us to score with a nice storm. And cold air locked in already.View attachment 10173View attachment 10174
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Atlanta needs the 850 mb zero degree line down around the Florida/Ga border and something to lock that airmass in place until the low gets to the central gulf. It takes everything lined up just right.
 
From Firsthand Weather: Keeping a close eye on the upcoming weekend for parts of the South, Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. A Gulf Low should develop late Friday and move eastward through the weekend. At the same time, clipper-like system will dive towards the southeast from the Midwest. This should aid in precipitation and a temperature profile supportive of wintry weather for the areas outlined on the map.

This event is several days out and guidance is split so confidence is low at this point. It is possible moisture gets suppressed further south, which would decrease wintry precipitation chances for the outlined areas. Keep checking back for updates as some of the questions begin to get ironed out as we get closer to the weekend.

-Meteorologist Christopher Nunley

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Radiant mets saying that the 0Z EPS and 0Z GEPS are still showing the tropical W PAC convection through day 15 while the GEFS weakens it although the GEFS has been cold biased in recent weeks in the 11-15. However, they do now acknowledge consensus for a deepening Aleutian low and accompanying strengthening +PNA late in the 11-15, which could then bring colder changes to the SE US. Let’s see what the weeklies say tonight.
 
I feel like the GEFS keeps pushing back the "cool". I keep going in to the 370+ hours to find a good 5h pattern. This one is pretty good, minus the WAR (which mutes the cold I think) but even this is not very cold, just perhaps cool. Still looking like it'll be February before we get any sustained cold. I'm really hoping that yes, we can get a +PNA/-EPO but I'd like to lose the WAR so we can get a true -NAO and confluence to our northeast. Not sure we're going to get those long range euro weekly looks that had the -NAO or not. Patiently waiting...

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weatherfide said:
Atlanta needs the 850 mb zero degree line down around the Florida/Ga border and something to lock that airmass in place until the low gets to the central gulf. It takes everything lined up just right.
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And it's been wrong for so long down here. Surely things will look up one day for us :) I mean climo gets avgs by things actually happening every once in a while, lol. Meanwhile, it's 67 near 2 , in early Jan., and the daffodils are out dancing up out of the soggy ground....that just ain't right! Standing water everywhere, after heavy winds and 3 days of warm sun. It can't soak in.
 
SnowNiner said:
I feel like the GEFS keeps pushing back the "cool". I keep going in to the 370+ hours to find a good 5h pattern. This one is pretty good, minus the WAR (which mutes the cold I think) but even this is not very cold, just perhaps cool. Still looking like it'll be February before we get any sustained cold. I'm really hoping that yes, we can get a +PNA/-EPO but I'd like to lose the WAR so we can get a true -NAO and confluence to our northeast. Not sure we're going to get those long range euro weekly looks that had the -NAO or not. Patiently waiting...

View attachment 10211
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Definitely been spinning our wheels a little but one thing that has quietly gotten better on all global ensemble is the ridge to russia. Just a matter of time I would think/hope now.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png
 
Kylo said:
Definitely been spinning our wheels a little but one thing that has quietly gotten better on all global ensemble is the ridge to russia. Just a matter of time I would think/hope now.

View attachment 10216
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Yep, that set up right there would bring some cold down in the east, but I think it's the PV lobe that becomes the main player IMO. I don't think it's a coincidence that when we're cold, we're sportin a 50/50 low north/northeast of main. We had a nice one for the December storm, we've got a bit of a weak sauce one for this weekend (which ultimately I think makes our storm fail unless it gets stronger).

Even with a ridge, I'd like to have lower heights show up in the west Atlantic rather than the ridging we've had for so many years. Not saying we can't get cold without it, but there's something in this set up we're in stopping it unless we have a our low.

1546887941102.png
 
Beep, Beep, Beep, ALEET, ALEET!!! lol. It seems like Week 4 has turned into week 3 now. Seems like everything is lining up for the end of January. January ain't Jammin, but will February be fabulous? At this point I'm not skeptical or optimistic. I just have no idea, and it could literally go to crap or we could be crushed with snow. :D:confused:

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We interrupt.....
New weeklies compared to the Thu run SE US at 2 meters:

11-15: much colder but we already knew that from the EPS

Now the truly new stuff:

16-20: sig colder
21-30: about same
31-35: slightly colder
36-45: slightly warmer

A really nice run for the SE with a solid +PNA from 11-15 on. Also a -AO/-NAO gets going 11-15 and intensifies 16+ and remains to the end. Coldest absolute 5 day SE temps are in the 16-20 (1/23-8) and 31-35 (2/7-12) day periods. Greatest cold departures 2/7-12, but normals slightly higher then vs 1/23-8. All periods 16-20+ colder than normal
 
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