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Brick Tamland
Guest
Potential here
Well, we have the precip here. Just need it to be colder.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The system next week is very close to being a much bigger deal.
Storm5
Member
Damn energy is everywhere good luck timing these short waves . Can’t wait for ten thousand different solutions over the coming days
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks like to me on the vort map, two waves in a not big time period drop down the Idaho stovepipe or close, and now they seem to be conjoined as one.
Storm5
Member
I’d much rather have a solution like the 12z gfs is showing with a weaker northern stream press vs the bone chilling over crushing runs like the last few cycles had
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Def wouldn't go to sleep on that one, especially in TN. Some areas could see a couple inches of snow dropped from that. If there's more work done on it, it still kinda reminds me of December 2017, maybe not as huge though.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The wave will likely end up being crushed but it does look a little better than 6z. Doesn't look like the 0z though with that beastly northern stream that actually paid off in Tennessee for some snow though.
Nomanslandva
Member
From the mageval site fv3 should look similar with the midweek system next week. It is hard to tell with that type of map though. Seems like the wave on the front thing goes poof more often than not but it is a week out. If it hold a few more runs, we may have something
Incoming with the 993 in Canada?
Cary_Snow95
Member
No, that isn’t a look that would bring the SE snow. Pay attention to H5 looks rather than surface depictions. H5 shows what is actually happening and directly causes surface depictions. Maybe we get some NW flow for the mountains coming upIncoming with the 993 in Canada?
Storm5
Member
The H5 changes from run to run on the gfs are laughable. someone should post the GIF trend from the last 6 runs
Cary_Snow95
Member
I don’t know why I’m even bothering to watch it because it’s so drastic lol. Lots of options for us at least
Yeah when I was comparing earlier it was hurting my eyes trying to track everything going on
Storm5
Member
Part of me wants to stop looking past day 5 like you have suggested numerous times but the weenie deep within has to look at the LR
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Just when i applauded the cmc for its consistency with the storm late next week the 12z run changes. Lol
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Nothing new with CMC, it changes alot as other models this far out
I look but I don't put any value in it. Actually I like to look at each operational run (especially beyond D5 when solutions start to diverge dramatically) as another ensemble member. If x, y and z do this, then what happens. When we start to get inside D5 and see minor changes, you can go back to those old runs and find similar runs and start getting an idea of how the final trends towards verification may unfold.Part of me wants to stop looking past day 5 like you have suggested numerous times but the weenie deep within has to look at the LR
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Last edited:
Just a tiny difference...
If this separates more, there will be a 2nd separate storm system behind the strong arctic front. No separation means no 2nd separate system. Other wise, the system is a frontal system, which there may not be a lot of snow along the boundary, because it is a fast moving boundary.
If that trof digs deeper, it would strengthen the western ridge. If the western ridge is too tall, there would be too much suppression further east, which would mean no storms.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
FV3 looks like a decent hit for the western part of the SE. Keep working on that overall.
240 hour GEFS
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If this separates more, there will be a 2nd separate storm system behind the strong arctic front. No separation means no 2nd separate system. Other wise, the system is a frontal system, which there may not be a lot of snow along the boundary, because it is a fast moving boundary.
Delta actually said last night that if the southern part was more neutral tilted (with the 0z FV3) that there is phase potential with it. And maybe I'm hallucinating but this looks like a late phase to me:
Jessy89
Member
Is this still the predicted El ninio winter?
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Then the chance next weekend.
Does not look well for Nc/sc with this type of storm, the apps help us by CAD but can ruin us by blocking the propagation of cold air, things can still change but this favors the western parts of the southeast atm, plus the ridge off the east coast won’t help
backloaded was always the forecast. We will see. Still potential for big time cold and snow as well as the potential for a winter fail from beginning to end
I haven't looked at the model except what's been posted here. But if I had to guess, the actual low would be somewhere in or near the red circle, just based on this map. All northern stream, with dry, convergent NW flow into the SE.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah now that I'm looking more, that could well just be the northern stream overtaking and dominating. But looking at earlier frames, it looks like those two waves are interacting. Perhaps it's just the NS crushing the wave though.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Just a reminder that the FV3 maps on TT are inaccurate. The coding or something is messed up, so the totals are not accurate.
Jessy89
Member
I wonder how much of this would move into upstate sc. between hrs 228-240.
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