Storm5
Member
12z vs 18z
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Storm5
Member
Here comes the arctic
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Storm5
Member
This run is gonna much much colder vs previous run.
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Storm5
Member
Gfs starting to look like some of the eps members changing over the rain along the huge front
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Storm5
Member
Any takers how this ends ??
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Looks like some people might get a inch out of that.Might not be much but here's the NAM. Low way further south and lots of flakes trailing,
Please explain for our “negative” people on here.Any takers how this ends ??
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The period I’ve alluded to is the last 5 days of January and early February most likely at least the first week of the month based on how long it’ll take from now to get the SE Canada vortex setup, tropical forcing, plus the lifetime and evolution of North Pacific blocking highs which usually go up over the Rockies and Alaska and later retrograde/decay over Siberia in a period of 2 weeks or so. If we get an additional anticyclonic wave break in the longer term that would keep our favorable window for a southern slider right into mid February.
I.e as of now I’d hone in on the period of January 27-February 7 for a southern slider to show up based on what I know and what I’m seeing going forward at the moment.
Big changes at hour 186. A whole lot more cold in canada.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In laymen this will begin to setup the big area of persistent low pressure/vortex over southern Canada that we desperately need to keep any potential shortwaves/ “storm systems” weak, sheared, & suppressed plus supply cold air into the pattern.
tennessee storm
Member
run up towards the appsAny takers how this ends ??
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Storm5
Member
Stupid cold this run
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tractor girl
Member
The first wave has a positive tilt so would that system not be what we want to see for potential winter precip? The second wave appears neutral in that frame.Any takers how this ends ??
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Storm5
Member
tennessee storm
Member
let me go back
Meh..but it’s setting the stage for something
How many runs before this disappears
EDIT: Still going at 240
252
EDIT: Still going at 240
252
FV3 is running now so maybe 30 minutesHow many runs before this disappears
Last edited:
Jessy89
Member
That low on the 26th showing once again a different look. But I’m hopeful this can work
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Storm5
Member
That look if real has all kinds of possible outcomes
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Jessy89
Member
I’m glad we have a very clear storm signal back. Who sees it exactly remains to be seen
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Hopefully we can continue to get this serious cold on the 18z on future runs. It had been backing off a bit, so hopefully this can start a trend.
Jessy89
Member
All of South Carolina sees at least some snow on that run
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Sure does. I would love to have that look 84 hrs out.
Per the 18z GFS this is why you should NEVER take one run and jump with it. Look at how pretty that ridge on the 18z gfs late in run compared to 12z.
and you should never jump back n off of one run either lol
I never jump on any model, I have always analyze ever model run but never jump with it especially the GFS.
Snownut
Member
How long before we see the GFS pick back up a storm for next week?
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Cary_Snow95
Member
This seems chilly
Nice increase at 240 hours gefs
GeorgiaGirl
Member
FV3 says yes again to a winter storm for west TN/AR/far NW MS.
I think it even tries to toss Brent a bone.
I think it even tries to toss Brent a bone.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How many runs before this disappears
EDIT: Still going at 240
252
Hallelujah! Finally, a storm shows up on the ops. I know, I know, it can change, but hopefully this is the beginning and we have other models starting to show storms, too. It is just nice to see an op go along with the GEFS for a change.
Meh..Roll Tide 
SimeonNC
Member
Don't interpret this as me being negative or anything but I'm wary of the vodka cold that is supposedly headed our way in a weeks time. In my (albeit short) experience a lot of the time when it gets cold it gets dry, and storms end up coming right when a moderation or warm up is about to happen.
Reading back on what Webber and others posted kinda puts my suspicions at ease but I still feel like this might end up being another one of those cold/dry patterns.
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Reading back on what Webber and others posted kinda puts my suspicions at ease but I still feel like this might end up being another one of those cold/dry patterns.
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Jessy89
Member