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Pattern Jammin' January

Doc alert! Doc Alert!

0Z Euro has snow Ark, Memphis, near Huntsville 1/12!

No Great Lakes low (sorry RC) to block the cold air like on the last run and like is still on the GFS. Ironically, this is similar to the CMC, which has no Great Lakes low and is therefore quite cold deep down into the SE.

No matter the exact solution, this indicates a highly fluid situation 6 days out meaning much could still change on later runs for those still too warm for snow.

Edit: 1/12-13: 1"+ snow accum E OK eastward through N half of AR, all of TN, all of NC to GSO/Charlotte. Also, this should include Stormlover and definitely includes Mack and Jimmy.

Accu: I can't post pics due to it being paid provider.
 
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One thing that is a bit worrisome on the GEFS is how the Pacific Jet keeps trending stronger inside of 200. For whatever reason it’s keeps trying to get it under control in the 240-280 range but to no avail. I made a 18 run gif but I couldn’t share so I will cherrypick these two runs
18z Tuesday @258
BBA1BC5A-D52E-443A-8635-94912559785D.png
Latest 00z @15613AA26A0-99CC-4FFF-83B4-FB8835896982.png
 
6283817d965cc9f33080d232af155d9e.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I guess this is mostly due to being entrenched in an El Niño pattern...but most of the models are showing WAA spreading west to east changing the snow to rain. Not my ideal snow scenario. But hey,beggars can't be choosy.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Need more cold air to work with. There was more cold air in the 2nd half of Nov and early Dec than now. Ridiculous.
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Look at the positive side and compare this to what all of the models were showing just 2 days ago, virtually nothing for anywhere close to you. The 2nd half of Nov and early Dec are ancient history and have nothing to do with now. That was an unusually cold bonus period. Why is it ridiculous that is isn't colder on this run for 1/12-13 than that unusually cold period? As it is on this run, it is still a couple of degrees colder than normal when the normal is coldest of the winter. And the trend suggests it could get even colder on future runs. Consider how cold the E Canadian Arctic high is early on 1/12: near -32-5 F with origins sub -40 F. In far SE Canada, some of that is showing as 28 F colder than normal! If that were to end up getting directed even further south, all heck could break loose in more of the SE. Considering the combo of weak El Nino, a forecasted -2 AO, a forecasted near or going into left side of COD MJO, and the coldest normals of the year, I would keep that option in mind as a possibility as history often rhymes. And if there is no snow in your area, it wasn't expected in the first place.

Edit: Also, this is a Gulf low So, I'm surprised you don't love it. ;)
 
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GaWx said:
Doc alert! Doc Alert!

0Z Euro has snow Ark, Memphis, near Huntsville 1/12!

No Great Lakes low (sorry RC) to block the cold air like on the last run and like is still on the GFS. Ironically, this is similar to the CMC, which has no Great Lakes low and is therefore quite cold deep down into the SE.

No matter the exact solution, this indicates a highly fluid situation 6 days out meaning much could still change on later runs for those still too warm for snow.

Edit: 1/12-13: 1"+ snow accum E OK eastward through N half of AR, all of TN, all of NC to GSO/Charlotte. Also, this should include Stormlover and definitely includes Mack and Jimmy.

Accu: I can't post pics due to it being paid provider.
Click to expand...
Can’t see the good maps but it almost appears I-20 could be in play (looking at 850 maps)
 
deltadog03 said:
Can’t see the good maps but it almost appears I-20 could be in play (looking at 850 maps)
Click to expand...
I just saw the maps. If we can get it a bit colder many would be in play. BUT it’s a run or 2 now, let’s see where we can go from here. Gfs was close. This is the best doc run/look yet so far.
 
1300m said:
GEFS slowly increasing and 00z EPS also a slight increase from 12z - now 1" line down to RDU to just north of CLT in NC.

View attachment 10075

View attachment 10076
Click to expand...

In addition to the slight uptick in snowfall, I thought the surface did improve markedly with no Lakes low, 3 mb higher pressure down as far south as Macon/colder air deeper into the SE/suggestion of wedging coming in further SW from the rather strong and stronger than previous run 1040ish SE Canadian parent high (I see wedging (1028 mb) moving SW to ATL on the mean just as the precip starts) as the very weak low traverses the Gulf.
 
GaWx said:
In addition to the slight uptick in snowfall, I thought the surface did improve markedly with no Lakes low, 3 mb higher pressure down as far south as Macon/colder air deeper into the SE/suggestion of wedging coming in further SW from the rather strong and stronger than previous run 1040ish SE Canadian parent high (I see wedging (1028 mb) moving SW to ATL on the mean just as the precip starts) as the very weak low traverses the Gulf.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. Big changes around D4 with a surface low over northern New England bombing out creating a pseudo 50/50 low that enabled the northern stream press to be much stronger on this particular run.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_fh96_trend.gif

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_fh168_trend.gif
Same adjustments can be seen in the 00z EPS.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_fh96_trend.gif
ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_fh168_trend.gif
 
GaWx said:
In addition to the slight uptick in snowfall, I thought the surface did improve markedly with no Lakes low, 3 mb higher pressure down as far south as Macon/colder air deeper into the SE/suggestion of wedging coming in further SW from the rather strong and stronger than previous run 1040ish SE Canadian parent high (I see wedging (1028 mb) moving SW to ATL on the mean just as the precip starts) as the very weak low traverses the Gulf.
Click to expand...
Agree Larry. I do like the look and that should be a pretty strong high to deliver enough cold air. BUT is it right...... time will tell, but I know we expect more changes.
 
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