Pattern Jammin' January

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now that right there...to me....says heads up for GOM surface low potential.
 
Actually on that map....the control goes off the chart...the mean, is not, but it's deeply negative.

Yeah, its still great no doubt. That said it would be the same as posting the QPF chart with precip behind the 0C line and saying its snow, when not noting that the QPF measured fell 6 hours before the temp reached 0C. We rail on JB, Cohen and Spann, so we need to point out this inaccurate statement.
 
Yeah, its still great no doubt. That said it would be the same as posting the QPF chart with precip behind the 0C line and saying its snow, when not noting that the QPF measured fell 6 hours before the temp reached 0C. We rail on JB, Cohen and Spann, so we need to point out this inaccurate statement.
agreed, the met that said that was clearly wrong..I agree
 
Saw this on Twitter a few minutes ago:
View attachment 11283

Yeah definitely still an outlier. But interesting to see.
This is very similar to some of those snowier gefs members posted earlier.

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End of run. Notice separation between the energy (red color between them) this is very different from OP models.

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It is the nam at 84. But nam did ok at range with the recent ice event I think.
 
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Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
ecmwf_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
View attachment 11293

This is the first system around the 20th correct?


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Well, it is the NAM, I don't trust it that much in this range...BUT......check out this trend of the last 4 runs of the doc....check out what is starting to show up in the northern branch and between the northern and southern branch...something to potentially watch as we go through the next few days......
View attachment 11293
Ridge is much taller on the last frame! That’ll get it in the right direction!