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Pattern Jammin' January

Webberweather53 said:
This is literally one of the best patterns you could ask for if you wanted to see a classic southern slider at the end of January or early February & is one that historically tends to deliver that kind of storm the most often. I really, really like where we're headed.
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Here's a few examples of this pattern:

February 1973

Feb 7-11 1973 N hem z500 ERA20C.png



"Snow jam" in Atlanta (January 1982)

Jan 10-14 1982 N hem z500 ERA20C.png


January 1988
Jan 3-7 1988 N hem z500 ERA20C .png

January 1992

Jan 14-18 1992 N hem z500 ERA20C.png

January 16-1992 southern US snowmap.png


This pattern even shows up in some of the all-time greats of the early-mid 20th century like late January 1936:

Jan 26-30 1936 N hem z500 ERA20C.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-15 at 4.37.08 PM.png
 

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  • Feb 9-11 1973 Snowstorm NWS Wilmington.png
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  • January 5-8 1988 Southern US snowstorm.jpg
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EPS members are everywhere for next weeks system. The control is very interesting, it cuts, but the trough position is very very interesting. Crazy to say this but '93 like potential for someone with that kind of bomb.

Edit: never mind about the control, it must have pulled up another member.
 
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1300m said:
Based on the latest trends it appears (most likely) the 1/20 system will cut. I'm still keeping an eye on the next one around 1/23 if the timing could improve but the really favorable pattern arrives behind that one around 1/25 and after.

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_39.png
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Agreed with all of the above, I think if we're gonna pull the trigger it's after the 25th-26th when the big vortex finally becomes established.
 
JLL1973 said:
Gfs keeps pushing everything back.
Every storm cuts as the time period gets closer.
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Gotta stop taking every run as fact . All the ops are bouncing all over the place from run to run . The next two might in fact cut which would not be a big deal .

The ensembles keep moving everything forward .


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Storm5 said:
Gotta stop taking every run as fact . All the ops are bouncing all over the place from run to run . The next two might in fact cut which would not be a big deal .

The ensembles keep moving everything forward .


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Everything is getting closer and closer. Honestly everything is still at play we have ton of cold air and lots of energy flying around.
 
Even with plenty of potential it’s still very hard to thread the needle. Maybe fab feb will produce. I’ll enjoy the cold Monday


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GFS is teasing us with awesome storms in fantasy land. That storm at the end would mean an insane high in the 20s for BTR, with the PV pushing down and a hefty high.

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ATLwxfan said:
The cold chasing rain may elevate black ice risks in ATL. Could be a traffic headache for sure.


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There could be some black ice, but not widespread. It will be very windy behind that front, and the wind will help evaporate most of the moisture off the roadways/highways.
 
Not a lot of mountain snow with this weekend’s system. Earlier runs were more bullish.


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Fv3 is a lot slower with the energy at hr 162. Vs gfs....


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accu35 said:
Yet another great run on the 18z, the pattern is becoming very ripe for something. I bet we have a storm to track by this weekend
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It's always good to have positive vibes of course. Truth is, nobody knows that there will be a storm to track for sure. If the ensembles continue to show something, we'll have something to track sooner or later. The true tracking for a winter storm may not be this weekend though.
 
Jessy89 said:
We was going to have a winter storm the 20th. Then it backed up to the 23-24th now it’s the 30th. Does anyone see a pattern here?


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Yeah I'm worried about that
 
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