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Pattern Jammin' January

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_28.png
 
2 runs now gfs showing something around the 11th

The period to watch IF there is anything to watch would be the 14th-16th per the 18z run .But no way that southern Vort survives with this dominating northern stream look
2ed672e34d86820b5feeca7613ff298c.jpg



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The period to watch IF there is anything to watch would be the 14th-16th per the 18z run .But no way that southern Vort survives with this dominating northern stream look
2ed672e34d86820b5feeca7613ff298c.jpg



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Ok, just figure I post it. Moving on i guess
 
Could be an onset snow for some but that's about it probably. Not unless we get colder

At this point I’d accept a quick burst that covers ground. For a few pictures if that’s really the best we can do


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One thing the EPS and GEFS both agree is the cold staying bottled up over the arctic and northern Canada. Europe cold though. Pattern is getting better by the 20th but still work to do. Last year it took a good 3 weeks before we turned colder across the east. Hopefully by next week we start seeing signs on extended guidance.

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Looking on a US heating DD basis, the cooling on the op GFS since the 12Z run of yesterday for 1/9-15 has been nothing short of impressive!

12Z Thu run: 137 HDD -41 vs norm
0Z Fri run: 144
6Z Fri 165
12z fri 173
18Z Fri 180 +2 vs norm

Edit: I should add that the GFS is warm biased.
 
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One thing the EPS and GEFS both agree is the cold staying bottled up over the arctic and northern Canada. Europe cold though. Pattern is getting better by the 20th but still work to do. Last year it took a good 3 weeks before we turned colder across the east. Hopefully by next week we start seeing signs on extended guidance.
Come on man ....... we are seeing signs of a pattern change now. Are you still in denial?
 
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