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Pattern Jammin' January

Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!

I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.
 
Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!

What I mean is winter weather. I’m sure we see plenty of rain. I think if we have that big dog storm we may have to wait till February I could be wrong because though hope I am. I’m very happy about the cold


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Always,Always ,Always Root, Take,Buy,Pray for the Cold first and foremost in the SE. Don't care what the risk or cost is for getting it. Then squaler and worry about moisture. You stay cold long enough/sustained down here and you'll score. .2 qpf in 15:1 ratio air is 3-4 inches of snow. Don't need.5+ to get 5:1 ratio wet 3 inch snow.
 
Didn't see it mentioned but the UK is trying to cutoff our system for the 20th and has a more suppressed track now... interesting change.
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That will work, espeacilly anafrontal for NE NC, SE VA as the rain changes over in the end. GFS is already showing a 3 hour window for this area. Or it has been, I havent checked 12z yet.
 
I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.

I have seen it work both ways, snow during a pattern change and snow when cold air has been established. I think from a region-wide perspective, cold air being established with a non-amped system overrunning seems to work out better for more people here. Those events never seem to be modeled well either. The snow you had in early DEC was missed by my area by 35 miles. Always a huge cutoff seemingly in those situations (see Wake County..LOL!)
 
I keep seeing get the cold first, but I don't think a long period of really cold temps does us much good. I keep going back to it, but the early December storm happened a week after the temp was close to 70 here. I think we actually do better with storms with big swings like that than getting a really cold pattern set in. Yes, you need cold, but it isn't any good if you can't get storms to go with it.
Sorta agree with you. In 2014, during those two events in Late Jan and Mid Feb, there was definitely larger swings in the temps. A week after the Mid Feb storm, it hit 80 degrees here.
 
I saw about 3inches from December storm. Here in upstate sc. that’s a decent event. But I’m hoping for that one big 6+ inches that covers Atlanta to Gsp.


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If you want a 6" snow that covers Atlanta you're gonna have to wait a while. Its been 36 years since the airport had a 6" snow !
 
Too bad this is past hour 300 but it'd actually make sense with the step down process and the process of the GFS always brings something along too fast:

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It kinda wouldn't surprise me if it gets squashed later though, based off what I'm seeing in the NE. We need suppression, but would that be too much?
 
I don’t understand how the gfs does what it did yesterday at 18z. And then loses the high all together. It goes from a 1055 high. To no high at all I mean you’d expect it to show up weaker and weaker but at least still be there. It’s just crazy how things changed In one run.


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Every run won't be the same in the mid to long range. Heck, sometimes in the short range, modeling changes a lot. The atmosphere is very complex. One thing changes, it changes everything else. The winter storm that we saw yesterday may return. Who really knows, nobody knows. Anything beyond 5-7 days has very little skill.
 
Lol all I keep reading about is getting a suppressed look . I could care less . If your looking for a board wide storm we need a suppressed look. But at this way all I care about is my backyard and my area can score without it .


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Boom there it is.
 
GFS cuts the 23-24 storm majorly, cold chasing moisture for parts of the south, we’ll see if the ensembles support this.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
That gefs really keeps the hope alive. It’s obviously seeing seeing the possibilities that the gfs doesn’t see.


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It would be nice to see the ops jump on board and follow suit. Either the ops are out to lunch or the ensembles are pure fantasy.
 
I think the next week is going to suck waiting. But I'm really starting to think our patience will pay off. ALL (for real, like ALL) guidance shows the last week of January as the time when we really get blocking up top, push the PV south/southeast and get the storm track where we need it. And it makes sense as there's evidence that after several weeks, the SSW is starting to do work (and the zonal wind is still easterly today!). See Ventrice tweet below. So for the next week, I just don't think looking at individual operational model runs is going to be good for my health. I just need to look at January 29 ensembles and if I still see the below, I'm good. After this, you can also see the WAR start to dissolve, likely to the look on the weeklies, but I won't speculate on that....but that's my hope. GEFS may be a day or two too fast, but EPS generally agrees.

At that point, there's no end in sight. We could be in unprecedented territory here. A split flow pattern, active stj with all out blocking up top and a true -NAO for what, like 6 weeks? Think about that. There's nothing to say that we can point to say that won't happen. Somehow it could, and in the SE somehow it does. But at this point from a forecast perspective, I'll gladly wait another week of looking at cutters if it means we get multiple weeks of what the weeklies are putting out.

I'd say around MLK we start seeing more consistent fantasy storms in the long range, that's my guess. Nice place to be right now, IMO.

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I think the next week is going to suck waiting. But I'm really starting to think our patience will pay off. ALL (for real, like ALL) guidance shows the last week of January as the time when we really get blocking up top, push the PV south/southeast and get the storm track where we need it. And it makes sense as there's evidence that after several weeks, the SSW is starting to do work (and the zonal wind is still easterly today!). See Ventrice tweet below. So for the next week, I just don't think looking at individual operational model runs is going to be good for my health. I just need to look at January 29 ensembles and if I still see the below, I'm good. After this, you can also see the WAR start to dissolve, likely to the look on the weeklies, but I won't speculate on that....but that's my hope. GEFS may be a day or two too fast, but EPS generally agrees.

At that point, there's no end in sight. We could be in unprecedented territory here. A split flow pattern, active stj with all out blocking up top and a true -NAO for what, like 6 weeks? Think about that. There's nothing to say that we can point to say that won't happen. Somehow it could, and in the SE somehow it does. But at this point from a forecast perspective, I'll gladly wait another week of looking at cutters if it means we get multiple weeks of what the weeklies are putting out.

I'd say around MLK we start seeing more consistent fantasy storms in the long range, that's my guess. Nice place to be right now, IMO.

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Of course, this is all conditional on if the pattern the models are showing actually materializes and is not fantasy itself.
 
That gefs really keeps the hope alive. It’s obviously seeing seeing the possibilities that the gfs doesn’t see.


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No, its seeing 16 or so other solutions. Storm5 said it after the big 18z run yesterday and was dead on. The Op run needs to be taken as one solution in a broad range of solutions. The models are stuck with an impossible task. For instance on the threat talked about above, they have to figure out the location of the first wave and then any phasing energy. The pattern we are going into is highly dynamic and unpredictable which will bring cliff divers and model huggers galore.
 
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Of course, this is all conditional on if the pattern the models are showing actually materializes and is not fantasy itself.

Not this time, it's more than that IMO. Smart folks are looking at the mechanics of it and see the blocking as an inevitability. HM thinks the blocking call is easy pesey. From my previous post, many see the blocking as a response to the downward propagation of the SSW taking effect, which is right on time. That's the thing for me, it's not just the models showing model stuff right now, it's models showing what's already expected because of other predictable elements.

Completely could fall apart, that's how we do in the SE. But.....but, this time seems substantially different.

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I think the next week is going to suck waiting. But I'm really starting to think our patience will pay off. ALL (for real, like ALL) guidance shows the last week of January as the time when we really get blocking up top, push the PV south/southeast and get the storm track where we need it. And it makes sense as there's evidence that after several weeks, the SSW is starting to do work (and the zonal wind is still easterly today!). See Ventrice tweet below. So for the next week, I just don't think looking at individual operational model runs is going to be good for my health. I just need to look at January 29 ensembles and if I still see the below, I'm good. After this, you can also see the WAR start to dissolve, likely to the look on the weeklies, but I won't speculate on that....but that's my hope. GEFS may be a day or two too fast, but EPS generally agrees.

At that point, there's no end in sight. We could be in unprecedented territory here. A split flow pattern, active stj with all out blocking up top and a true -NAO for what, like 6 weeks? Think about that. There's nothing to say that we can point to say that won't happen. Somehow it could, and in the SE somehow it does. But at this point from a forecast perspective, I'll gladly wait another week of looking at cutters if it means we get multiple weeks of what the weeklies are putting out.

I'd say around MLK we start seeing more consistent fantasy storms in the long range, that's my guess. Nice place to be right now, IMO.

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This is generally what's expected in this kind of winter given an El Nino + SSW that effectively propagates into the troposphere. The favored climatological window for cold/snow in the SE US during a NINO as I've alluded to numerous times is late January thru early March and thus it's not a huge surprise NWP looks good as we enter the beginning of this often anomalously cold/snowy window.
 
Not this time, it's more than that IMO. Smart folks are looking at the mechanics of it and see the blocking as an inevitability. HM thinks the blocking call is easy pesey. From my previous post, many see the blocking as a response to the downward propagation of the SSW taking effect, which is right on time. That's the thing for me, it's not just the models showing model stuff right now, it's models showing what's already expected because of other predictable elements.

Completely could fall apart, that's how we do in the SE. But.....but, this time seems substantially different.

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Well, let's all hope it works out as predicted.
 
For those of us in NC, SC and GA here is my take on the upcoming pattern and what we need to see for some winter weather chances.

Notice first that there is very little ridging out west so energy is entering the US and pretty "flat" which makes it incredibly easy for a storm to form and cut. Our storm on the 20th is in Nevada in this frame and you can see if it moved due east across the US it would take the low pressure over us or to the north. Now add in all the energy flying around and you get a storm that juices up and ends up cutting up the Apps putting our region in the warm sector.
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Notice the next storm, this is the energy for the 23-25th system. Once again there is very little ridging out west and it is in almost an identical position to the previous storm. This would favor another cutter IMO.
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Now notice the significant change that happens past 200+ hours that could change things in our favor. A tall ridge builds in and forces the energy to either go up and over it OR cut underneath it. This ridge is a bit far west for my liking but it's a 10 day run so no need to go into details. The main takeaway is we finally have a large ridge that can help force some of the energy to the south into Texas/Mexico which is where we want to see it for a nice Miller A or southern slider scenario to occur. Model don't really develop this feature until around the 24-25th so I would look to see how this evolves in future more runs. Without this feature places in NC, SC and GA will need to either hope for the PV to drop south and suppress the storm track (but also risk shredding the energy, cold/dry pattern) or hope for a perfectly timed sequence of waves which is difficult to accomplish.
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The EPS also agrees quite well with the look overall, again I'd like to see the Western Ridge shifted east a bit but it is still a much better look than what we have taking place the next 7 days.
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The 12z Euro look is closer to what we want but still needs to shift things east a little bit more.
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