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Pattern Jammin' January

Chattownsnow said:
This was the ensembles of the GFS last year before the arctic plunges. Just a story of caution as I ended up with literally 0 inches of snow. This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period.View attachment 11212This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period. View attachment 11213

Just goes to show you the potential but even this far out ensembles are not gospel either. patients folks, patients.
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Would this be a different system from this Saturday's event?
 
So far 12z looks to be a slightly different look to all the others at 186 will it cut or be a overrunning type event for deep south?
 
GFS looks faster and has CAD to start in NC, honestly if the HP was actually as modeled, there'd probably be at least a bit more CAD.

But it's probably otherwise a no go.
 
The story for both storms is the 20th storm cuts and the 23-24th storm takes a very similar track, there is fairly good agreement among the major globals of this happening too. If you want snow in the Deep South or east of the Apps we HAVE to get something to suppress our storms or hope for a PERFECTLY timed northern/southern wave combo. So far all I see is cutter after cutter and that's not going to work for most of us hoping to see wintry weather. We need the PV pressing down to suppress the storm track.
 
GFS cuts the 23-24 storm majorly, cold chasing moisture for parts of the south, we’ll see if the ensembles support this.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
Another look from the gfs this run. Great high, but it’s moving out quickly. Let’s see what the doc says
 
snowlover91 said:
The story for both storms is the 20th storm cuts and the 23-24th storm takes a very similar track, there is fairly good agreement among the major globals of this happening too. If you want snow in the Deep South or east of the Apps we HAVE to get something to suppress our storms or hope for a PERFECTLY timed northern/southern wave combo. So far all I see is cutter after cutter and that's not going to work for most of us hoping to see wintry weather. We need the PV pressing down to suppress the storm track.
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The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
 
RollTide18 said:
The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
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Not all of them do, it's pretty split and honestly I'd say leaning towards the Apps runner/cutter. A few big ensembles are helping blur things.

But he's saying what the deal is for the Carolinas and honestly, eastern Georgia as well. The western part of the SE might be in better shape for a while. The looks that I see on the 500 mb maps in reasonable range are pretty good for there and not so great east.
 
GFS showing its bias and really amping up the system on the 23rd. Much better H5 look with the strong high, but we still need some work for a snowier outcome.
 
I think I see an overrunning set up forming at hr234 in the frames to come with the GFS with a wave coming in and the northern stream pressing down. Might get squashed before it turns into anything though.
 
RollTide18 said:
The ensembles say differently though, sometimes they lead the way before the Globals jump on board.
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The FV3 has been consistent in cutting both storms and the GFS is coming around to that idea for the 23-25th storm. The CMC also cuts it as well and I'm sure the Euro today will. The modeled 5h setup through the 26th does not favor GA, SC or NC and favors places like Texas/OK to Indiana and Maine until that changes. The end of the EPS shows the PV pressuring down to suppress the storm track and that is what we will need to see IMO, until then storms are going to keep cutting and most in the South will see cold followed by a warmup, rain and then more cold.
 
Northern stream crush. Anyways, no worries. We are entering a better period with cold around soon guys.. for a wide area of the board to have multiple chances in all likelihood. Wild model swings and systems showing up and disappearing are to be expected.

Right now, I'd just assume it's about to get a bit colder throughout the South, so get all your outdoor activities settled, regardless.
 
packfan98 said:
And there's the big ball of energy off the S Cali coast that just won't kick out...
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Even if that look verified which it won’t we could still see some overrunning before the big cold gets in but that is irrelevant as it will be different next run


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This gfs run is amazing, cold till the end with energy everywhere. I guarantee will get something out of that
 
packfan98 said:
And there's the big ball of energy off the S Cali coast that just won't kick out...
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After the 26th, IF the PV presses down as modeled on the ensemble sweets and OP runs, I think most of the south will have a chance for a board wide event or close to it. Getting that PV to press down and suppress things is IMO the #1 key... at the same time if it presses down too much it'll shred everything and suppress things too far south and we will just be cold and dry.
 
It appears that we have to get through the next two storms that will help set up the pattern. Then we wait to see if we can get some energy coming across to line up with the cold air. Still a ton to sort out right now. Hopefully by the end of next week we can be trying to reel one in.
 
packfan98 said:
It appears that we have to get through the next two storms that will help set up the pattern. Then we wait to see if we can get some energy coming across to line up with the cold air. Still a ton to sort out right now. Hopefully by the end of next week we can be trying to reel one in.
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At least the one positive is the next 2 storms will help put down a nice large area of fresh snow to our north. This should definitely help with future systems if we can get more of a suppressed look.
 
A lot of people living/dying with every run of the OP GFS...smh. Honestly, trusting anything these models spit out more than 3 days in advance is pure folly anymore. Sometimes there is just "too much going on" as someone just said for the models to even score close to verification. If the models can't get it right 4 days out, everything else is just one big error/truncated afterwards.

Just give me a decent pattern and we can work out the details between friends. Models are a long way from replacing solid Meteorology and those who can recognize patterns. We need a message from HM and an interpretation by Webber! LOL! A message from Larry would be great too!
 
Having the better pattern come after the second storm certainly would go along with the GFS tries to bring on changes too fast.
 
All the gfs says and has been consistent on is it will be cold! At least it will feel like winter but know one should be surprised when it’s February 1st and most people in the south hasn’t seen any snow. The real pattern we are in is one that keeps delaying itself over and over again. Right now only thing certain is the cold


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Jessy89 said:
All the gfs says and has been consistent on is it will be cold! At least it will feel like winter but know one should be surprised when it’s February 1st and most people in the south hasn’t seen any snow. The real pattern we are in is one that keeps delaying itself over and over again. Right now only thing certain is the cold


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Jessy, that's true but having the cold air is the most key ingredient. Can't have winter weather without cold but not seeing anything until Feb. 1st? I think you are speaking out of frustration. I don't remember a 2 week period without precip since....I don't know when. Just get us the cold air and half the battle has been won!
 
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