Pattern Jammin' January

[Rain Cold]

I think we are basically there. We may push a few more says but as a whole the light is at the end of the tunnel

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Hopefully. It's been hard to wait. I don't like the fact that we have had what feels like a string winters where you have to wait for the pattern to turn favorable (that may have not been the case last year...I don't remember). Punting a large portion of January isn't ideal. But given some of the changes referenced above, there's reason to be hopeful, beyond crossing fingers and kissing the rabbit's foot under the horseshoe, holding a four-leaf clover.

 

[Arcc]

I think we are basically there. We may push a few more says but as a whole the light is at the end of the tunnel

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Im gonna wait a bit. Things looked awesome a week or so ago too at a closer time frame, including the EPS and they stabbed me in the back. If anyone wants a flashback go back to page 20 of this thread.

 

[Webberweather53]

Webber, my question to you becomes is this a temporary fix or longer lasting pattern change? Im referring to the EAMT event? Anyway this coincides with the SSW situation?

The negative east Asia mountain torque event is a function of the natural AAM cycle, a response of the tropospheric vortex being disrupted by the SSWE, & tropical forcing leaving the Maritime Continent. Essentially none of these are acting independently of one another and will harken a large scale pattern change at least for a while, odds are this pattern change will carry into February.

 

[Arcc]

This mornings GEFS has the strongest tropospheric PV lobe on Earth over middle NA in the mid to late range. I dont know how it effects our weather but its pretty cool the PV actually split this time and possibly put the strongest lobe over us.

I guess that unicorn has finally been mounted on our wall.

 

[Golf7575]

The negative east Asia mountain torque event is a function of the natural AAM cycle, a response of the tropospheric vortex being disrupted by the SSWE, & tropical forcing leaving the Maritime Continent. Essentially none of these are acting independently of one another and will harken a large scale pattern change at least for a while, odds are this pattern change will carry into February.

If these things can slow the growth or expansion of hadley cells, which apparently aren't good for cold weather.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Hopefully. It's been hard to wait. I don't like the fact that we have had what feels like a string winters where you have to wait for the pattern to turn favorable (that may have not been the case last year...I don't remember). Punting a large portion of January isn't ideal. But given some of the changes referenced above, there's reason to be hopeful, beyond crossing fingers and kissing the rabbit's foot under the horseshoe, holding a four-leaf clover.

It seems like last year we had to wait for Arctic air to leave the country before we had a legitimate shot at anything. We watched our early January threat get pushed into the low country. I think you guys may have seen some snow from that deal but most on this board got shut out. I think our best events around here (upstate) are ones with marginal temps. I don’t believe entrenched cold is all it’s cracked up to be. Imo blocking is key for unfavorable areas east of the Appalachians (south of 85 in NC/SC) if you want to see a big dog. We walk a very fine line

 

[Rain Cold]

It seems like last year we had to wait for Arctic air to leave the country before we had a legitimate shot at anything. We watched our early January threat get pushed into the low country. I think you guys may have seen some snow from that deal but most on this board got shut out. I think our best events around here (upstate) are ones with marginal temps. I don’t believe entrenched cold is all it’s cracked up to be. Imo blocking is key for unfavorable areas east of the Appalachians (south of 85 in NC/SC) if you want to see a big dog. We walk a very fine line

A lot of times when we get a big EPO/PNA pattern with a Yuge trough in the east, the flow gets squashed...waves in the northern stream track under us and a lot of times, they don't have room to amplify. This year, we have an active STJ, that should help, if we can get the cold to come nearby. You're right in that we don't want a big PV sitting over us, but if we could get a configuration to have a strong high near the Lakes/NE and not crashing down into the SE, then one of these rainy waves will be something else.

 

[whatalife]

Im gonna wait a bit. Things looked awesome a week or so ago too at a closer time frame, including the EPS and they stabbed me in the back. If anyone wants a flashback go back to page 20 of this thread.

I think you have to give credit to the GEFS and the GEPS on this one. They have led the way this time around. Which doesn't happen very often. I will lean towards the EPS more often than not and I count this one as a win for the GEFS and GEPS.

 

[snowlover91]

Im gonna wait a bit. Things looked awesome a week or so ago too at a closer time frame, including the EPS and they stabbed me in the back. If anyone wants a flashback go back to page 20 of this thread.

I think the difference this time is this pattern change fits in better with the Nino transitions we've seen post 2000 (based off memory) where the transition seems to occur between January 10-20th. Also we have the cold about to hit Europe pretty hard in the next 3-4 days which we typically see as the first region affected by strong SSW events before swinging around to the US within 7-10 days. Everything synoptically is lining up for a mid-January flip that is real this time. Models oftentimes are too quick with the pattern flip and I think that's what we saw a week ago.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I think the difference this time is this pattern change fits in better with the Nino transitions we've seen post 2000 (based off memory) where the transition seems to occur between January 10-20th. Also we have the cold about to hit Europe pretty hard in the next 3-4 days which we typically see as the first region affected by strong SSW events before swinging around to the US within 7-10 days. Everything synoptically is lining up for a mid-January flip that is real this time. Models oftentimes are too quick with the pattern flip and I think that's what we saw a week ago.

Why is Europe typically the first region to be affected by strong SSW events ?

 

[Tarheel1]

Why is Europe typically the first region to be affected by strong SSW events ?

They are closer to the Stratosphere

 

[GaWx]

From what Radiant mets are still saying this morning, the Indonesian convection is still likely going to remain a big factor in fighting sustained cold getting here despite the MJO moving into colder phases:

“The MJO is a disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure that traverses the tropics, and it is a signal that models have divergence. This divergence allows us to take a step away from analyzing RMM phase plots and focus on where models show storminess in the tropics. The maps on the left include precipitation (CPC) and temperature composites (DynaCast) per each phase of the MJO. The region of interest based on the current forecast is over the Indian Ocean and the west Pacific, as these areas are projected to be convectively active for the next two weeks. Typically, these areas are drier than normal when North America takes on colder themes, and activity here is likely a forcing behind the warmer than normal forecast. The map below is from last evening’s run of the ECMWF Weeklies model; It projects a wetter than normal pattern to continue along the equator in the west Pacific through the January 14-21 period and even beyond. This suggests the pattern may continue to lack colder themes, bearing any changes to the atmospheric base state and assuming the tropics remain influential on the North America pattern.”

Any thoughts about this? Radiant is usually pretty good and they have objectivity as a top goal totally unlike someone like JB. However, I’ve also seen them sometimes end up way off, especially with being too slow with pattern changes.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Why is Europe typically the first region to be affected by strong SSW events ?

Likely because the location of the SSW occurring and latitude. Since they are closer to the event than other land masses, and are further north, it's why I think they receive it first. Canada probably is too far away from the event to get impacts initially and Russia is below the warming, so maybe that's why. I have nothing to back it up but I'm sure someone who knows more than I do can.

 

[snowlover91]

Why is Europe typically the first region to be affected by strong SSW events ?

Here's an excerpt from an article written in mid-December that covers it pretty well and explains it better than I can. I think a lot has to do with how the PV is disrupted and where it splits off, this one was forecast to first wobble towards Europe/Asia and that's what

The chain of events spurred by the disruption begins with an easterly flow of air descending from the stratosphere to the troposphere. The jet stream, the air current about 30,000 feet high in the troposphere, weakens in response and is forced south. As the jet stream shifts south, cold air evacuates the polar regions, like a refrigerator door left open, and spills into the mid-latitudes.

Where the cold air spilling out of the Arctic will first land, whether Europe, Asia, or the continental United States, is difficult to predict. In many past vortex disruptions, the cold has first hit the eastern hemisphere. It may do so again this time. Jason Furtado, a professor of meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, tweeted that “it will be felt first in Eurasia” based on model forecasts. This means the Lower 48 states may be weeks away from feeling any effect.

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Storm5]

For all you CFSv2 lovers ( for some reason there are a few of you ) here ya go

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[tennessee storm]

I just hope this water hose doesn’t cut off when the cold air settles in here.... if it don’t. We should be in business

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m optimistic for a pattern change but the pacific jet is still cranking at the end of the run. 12z GEFS isn’t out yet but 06z showed a stout jet at the end of the run. How we get cold air established in NA with this feature crashing into the west coast the way it is?

 

[SnowNiner]

I understand that one...strat warming propagates downward and flips us to -EPO/-AO in mid January, as expected in a nino. BOOM. Yes. Wait, is he being sarcastic and doesn't really mean it? Crap.

 

[Jon]

For all you CFSv2 lovers ( for some reason there are a few of you ) here ya go

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There’s not many seasonals out there so I like to keep an eye on it, even though it often busts, for some reason in Jan and Feb (especially feb) it’s been decent the last few years.

Here’s today’s week 3 and 4 run:

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