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Pattern Jammin' January

This is a look you want if you live in the western portions of the southeast, this is a look that makes you want to rip your hair out if your east of the apps, that SE ridge gotta go or issa no go for areas east of the apps
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One more thing: this run was a massive rainer all the way into the northeast. I don’t believe that for one second
 
I'm sure that the models will change an infinite amount of times between now and next week, but the cold shot towards the end of the month is starting to look legitimate.
 
With all the models showing some crazy cold, it's a matter of time when we see a consistent winter storm to follow on models, until then enjoy swing moods
 
Don't think I can hold out for Euro tonight, plenty of model runs to go before we get a solution.
 
Don't think i have ever seen -10s dewpoints modeled all the way down to central Florida lol, wow what an epic shot of cold dry artic air on the long range GFS.

gfs_Td2m_seus_46.png
 
cyclogent said:
Don't think i have ever seen -10s dewpoints modeled all the way down to central Florida lol, wow what an epic shot of cold dry artic air on the long range GFS.

gfs_Td2m_seus_46.png
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Something's wrong with that map. Per Meteostar, the 0Z GFS dewpoint at Orlando is a much more believable 23 then.
300 Sun 01/27 12Z 52 ° 30 ° 23 °

What's 36 degrees between friends?

ATL is -1 while SAV is +8.

ATL: 300 Sun 01/27 12Z 15 ° 7 ° -1 °
SAV: 300 Sun 01/27 12Z 29 ° 16 ° 8 °
 
I know it's getting frustrating as we watch a series of cutters on the medium/LR guidance...and it can lead to despair for us southern snow lovers. However, I'm hopeful that the pattern will indeed turn in our favor by the end of the medium range. By then, the MJO should be progressing back to a more favorable phase for the SE.

With that said, I really like the EURO look at day 10. It screams southern storm track. Especially note the developing -NAO. Time will tell of course, but for now there remains hope for a widespread southern snow storm in the not too distant future.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png


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Storm5 said:
And plenty of energy and opportunities. I’ve sold out for next week the 20-25th . There appears to be two windows the 23rd-25th and the 27-29th


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I agree the energy is there. But getting the cold along with the energy is the challenge at hand. It goes from cold warms up rains then cold again then repeat. Hopefully it looks good again at some point still a long way to go


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Jessy89 said:
I agree the energy is there. But getting the cold along with the energy is the challenge at hand. It goes from cold warms up rains then cold again then repeat. Hopefully it looks good again at some point still a long way to go


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As many have remarked on here there will be plenty of energy and cold around starting next week. I will be a little shocked with the setup we have coming up if someone in SE doesn’t score before February 1st.


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I’ll put it this way...... if you don’t like the pattern we are about to head into, you don’t like weather.... period....

I think it’s only a matter of time before many on here see wintry weather. JS

PS just because an OP doesn’t show torch or snow on it, as others will say, the ENS will lead the way initially while the details will be worked out later with OP runs.
 
deltadog03 said:
I’ll put it this way...... if you don’t like the pattern we are about to head into, you don’t like weather.... period....

I think it’s only a matter of time before many on here see wintry weather. JS

PS just because an OP doesn’t show torch or snow on it, as others will say, the ENS will lead the way initially while the details will be worked out later with OP runs.
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You've been here for a long time... I've been here for a long time (i'm counting back to the TW days also). And this is absolutely correct.

But that 18z Goof yesterday was like damn.
 
Storm5 said:
This might be the weeniest gefs run I’ve seen
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A few big hits and a nice mean. I would just like to see some storms showing up on the ops, too, and inside 7 days. Everything right now is 10 days and further out.
 
I don’t understand how the gfs does what it did yesterday at 18z. And then loses the high all together. It goes from a 1055 high. To no high at all I mean you’d expect it to show up weaker and weaker but at least still be there. It’s just crazy how things changed In one run.


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