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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
As fun as that looks there is no need to get excited over a day 8-10 storm . Models are still bouncing the day 5-6 storm .

Is it possible sure but My excitement level is like 5 percent


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Now is not the time to be wasting energy or emotions on operational runs. That time will come...
WxWatch said:
So, you're saying this storm system isn't in the mid range with it being in the 1/23 - 1/24 time frame? which is not far off from with it being in the 7 day window. Besides, the beginnings of the storm is under 240hrs. Mid range IMO.
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Not in numerical weather prediction time it most certainly is not. Beyond 7 days model skill scores suggest an individual operational solution will more likely be wrong than right. WPC defines the medium range as Days 3-7 which I agree with.
 
I can honestly say I have never seen a GFS run that ridiculously cold ever in my life. It was showing several days of sub 20s for highs in north Georgia. This won't verify, but definitely interesting to follow for sure. Our friends on the high west facing slopes in WNC would have sub zero highs with wind chills like none seen since the early to mid 90s. Thanks for those breaking all of this down, obviously this is just an operational fantasy run.
 
Stormlover said:
LOL, I don't believe that for a second
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It honestly is for a solution like that . Again , it’s a possible solution but highly unlikely. I’m excited for a system as I went all in on the 20th-25th a few days ago . But that solution is just fun to look . 100 percent 00z will look nothing like it


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18Z GEFS has some SLP in the Gulf near Day 9-10 with strong HP to N/NE. The 18Z GFS OP has a 50/50 low low at ~981mb slowing down the high pressure and locks in CAD high longer. Regardless though looking past this individual storm on the OP run, the 18Z GEFS keeps a trough in the East with a favorable +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO going into late Jan. Won't be much longer till we are tracking a legit threat. Last two images is Day 10 500mb height anomaly of GEFS vs GFS OP.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_40.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.pnggfs_z500a_namer_41.png
 
StoneMtnWx said:
18Z GEFS has some SLP in the Gulf near Day 9-10 with strong HP to N/NE. The 18Z GFS OP has a 50/50 low low at ~981mb slowing down the high pressure and locks in CAD high longer. Regardless though looking past this individual storm on the OP run, the 18Z GEFS keeps a trough in the East with a favorable +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO going into late Jan. Won't be much longer till we are tracking a legit threat. Last two images is Day 10 500mb height anomaly of GEFS vs GFS OP.
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Wouldn't this be a good look for the TX, LA, AR, and MS region of the southeast?
 
Different looks for sure, fv3 has that annoying ridge off the east coast and it’s wayyyy stronger on the fv

FA62CE69-2B70-4818-8E01-D17CA41EE160.png8FE33CBB-7147-4ECE-8291-75A25801BC7C.png
 
1300m said:
Now is not the time to be wasting energy or emotions on operational runs. That time will come...

Not in numerical weather prediction time it most certainly is not. Beyond 7 days model skill scores suggest an individual operational solution will more likely be wrong than right. WPC defines the medium range as Days 3-7 which I agree with.
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I have a different perspective on time frames

1 - 5 days - short range

6 - 10 days - mid range

11+ days - long range
 
Well obviously this is the BeST case scenario. So that means it won’t happen. Lol

In all seriousness, if we can clear the northern branch and drive that arctic boundary south, something is likely to pop on that boundary with all the energy flying around.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Different looks for sure, fv3 has that annoying ridge off the east coast and it’s wayyyy stronger on the fv

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Yep, the run works for wintry but just in the western part of the SE. Interesting as it felt like to me the FV3 had recently gone away from that ridge. Maybe firing an early reality warning shot for the 0z? (or maybe we don't know since it's still pretty far out)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Different looks for sure, fv3 has that annoying ridge off the east coast and it’s wayyyy stronger on the fv

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FV has a full latitude trough so the ridge off of the SE coast pops in response. The gfs brings the northern stream through faster and compresses the heights along the east coast while depositing a fresh arctic airmass and you get a monster storm. For either the system over the weekend or the one being discussed here you have to have stream separation or you get a cutter or some ugly miller b trash

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Somebody want to post the weeklies? They're over at the other site and they're gorgeous. Looks like they're right on time, and go from end of January to March with nothing but blocking over the top and -NAO for weeks that just gets better and better.
 
This might be a bit aggressive.
fae7b61e07db623408afc7e3bd585d78.jpg


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Jessy89 said:
My hope is we lock onto a storm by This weekend. Most importantly I want the cold here first


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Or better yet, have the cold coming in at the same time as a storm system is moving along the Gulf coast. If the cold gets here first, it would probably warm ahead of the next system.
 
pcbjr said:
somebody alert Larry !!!! ...
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Thanks for the alert. There’s been only one time since official records started (1870s) that SAV got measurable SN/IP in consecutive winters: 1988-9 and 1989-90. In addition to the SN, it gives significant ZR from the first storm (before a possible change to rain) due to the epic wedge from the very cold high. Have there ever been two measurable events this close together? I know of only one instance: 0.1” SN 12/30/1917 and 0.5” SN 1/2/1918.
Suffice it to say this was a dream run in the long range that has about as much chance of verifying closely as JB declaring winter over. But still fun to see!
 
I know it’s just long range noise but you can actually see the step down process on the FV3. Massive cutter on the 20th, little less of a cutter on the 25th, rubber on the 28th
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know it’s just long range noise but you can actually see the step down process on the FV3. Massive cutter on the 20th, little less of a cutter on the 25th, rubber on the 28th
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The gfs was a significant improvement. Fv3 a major step down not sure which to go by if either one.


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Jessy89 said:
The gfs was a significant improvement. Fv3 a major step down not sure which to go by if either one.


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Going to change a 100 times before it actually happens. Main thing to take away from these runs is there is a good chance someone in the southeast will get a good winter storm out of this pattern.
 
pcbjr said:
That was 3/5ths of the "alert Larry" post ... ;)
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OTOH, with a weak Niño during prime climo, developing -NAO, progged possible extreme -AO, +PNA, -EPO, deepest solar minimum in possibly 200 years, lots of snowcover to the north, by then better to possibly excellent MJO location, and model consensus going batshoot late month, there’s no telling what might happen even in our areas. So, I wouldn’t bet the ranch against something extremely rare and special for our areas even if SAV got a once in a generation type of winter storm last winter. I mean if the index/climo slot is showing practically all 7s, that’s not the best time to bet against a wx jackpot.
 
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Finally, some storms showing up again on the model runs. GFS saying the end of the month will be jammin. That would be awesome to get two back to back storms like that. I am sure the runs will change between now and the 25th, but great to see the possibility there and some good signals for storms after the 20th.
 
GaWx said:
OTOH, with a weak Niño during prime climo, developing -NAO, progged possible extreme -AO, +PNA, -EPO, deepest solar minimum in possibly 200 years, lots of snowcover to the north, by then better to possibly excellent MJO location, and model consensus going batshoot late month, there’s no telling what might happen even in our areas. So, I wouldn’t bet the ranch against something extremely rare and special for our areas even if SAV got a once in a generation type of winter storm last winter. I mean if the index/climo slot is showing practically all 7s, that’s not the best time to bet against a wx jackpot.
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You found the other 2/5ths ... ;)
 
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